scholarly journals Long-Term Demographic Trends in Prehistoric Italy: Climate Impacts and Regionalised Socio-Ecological Trajectories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Palmisano ◽  
Andrew Bevan ◽  
Alexander Kabelindde ◽  
Neil Roberts ◽  
Stephen Shennan
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Iron Age ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Italian Peninsula

AbstractThe Italian peninsula offers an excellent case study within which to investigate long-term regional demographic trends and their response to climate fluctuations, especially given its diverse landscapes, latitudinal range and varied elevations. In the past two decades, summed probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon dates have become an important method for inferring population dynamics in prehistory. Recent advances in this approach also allow for statistical assessment of spatio-temporal patterning in demographic trends. In this paper we reconstruct population change for the whole Italian peninsula from the Late Mesolithic to the Early Iron Age (10,000–2800 cal yr BP). How did population patterns vary across time and space? Were fluctuations in human population related to climate change? In order to answer these questions, we have collated a large list of published radiocarbon dates (n = 4010) and use this list firstly to infer the demographic trends for the Italian peninsula as a whole, before addressing each of five sub-regions in turn (northern, central, and southern Italy, Sicily, Sardinia). We also compare population fluctuations with local paleoclimate proxies (cave, lake, marine records). At a pan-regional scale, the results show a general rapid and substantial increase in population in the Early Neolithic with the introduction of farming at around 8000 cal yr BP and further dramatic increases during the Bronze and Iron Age (~ 3800–2800 cal yr BP). However, different regional demographic trajectories exist across different regions of Italy, suggesting a variety of localised human responses to climate shifts. Population and climate appear to have been more closely correlated during the early–mid Holocene (Mesolithic–Neolithic), while later in the Holocene (Bronze–Iron Ages) they decouple. Overall, across the Holocene the population dynamics varied by region and depended on the long-term socio-ecological dynamics prevailing in a given area. Finally, we include a brief response to the paper ‘Radiocarbon dated trends and central Mediterranean prehistory’ by Parkinson et al. (J Word Prehist 34(3), 2021)—synchronously published by Journal of World Prehistory but wholly independently developed—indicating how our conclusions accord with or differ from one another.

scholarly journals Radiocarbon Dated Trends and Central Mediterranean Prehistory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eóin W. Parkinson ◽  
T. Rowan McLaughlin ◽  
Carmen Esposito ◽  
Simon Stoddart ◽  
Caroline Malone
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Iron Age ◽  
Cultural Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Archaeological Record ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates

AbstractThis paper reviews the evidence for long term trends in anthropogenic activity and population dynamics across the Holocene in the central Mediterranean and the chronology of cultural events. The evidence for this has been constituted in a database of 4608 radiocarbon dates (of which 4515 were retained for analysis following initial screening) from 1195 archaeological sites in southern France, Italy and Malta, spanning the Mesolithic to Early Iron Age periods, c. 8000 to 500 BC. We provide an overview of the settlement record for central Mediterranean prehistory and add to this an assessment of the available archaeological radiocarbon evidence in order to review the traditional narratives on the prehistory of the region. This new chronology has enabled us to identify the most significant points in time where activity levels, population dynamics and cultural change have together caused strong temporal patterning in the archaeological record. Some of these episodes were localized to one region, whereas others were part of pan-regional trends and cultural trajectories that took many centuries to play out fully, revealing prehistoric societies subject to collapse, recovery, and continuing instability over the long-term. Using the radiocarbon evidence, we model growth rates in the various regions so that the tempo of change at certain points in space and time can be identified, compared, and discussed in the context of demographic change. Using other published databases of radiocarbon data, we have drawn comparisons across the central Mediterranean to wider prehistoric Europe, and northern Africa. Finally, we include a brief response to the synchronously published but independently developed paper (Palmisano et al. in J World Prehist 34(3), 2021). While there are differences in our respective approaches, we share the general conclusions that large-scale trends can been identified through meta-analyses of the archaeological record, and these offer new perspectives on how society functioned.

scholarly journals Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1806) ◽  
pp. 20150173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayco J. M. Tack ◽  
Tommi Mononen ◽  
Ilkka Hanski
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Life History Stage ◽  
General Effect ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Glanville Fritillary Butterfly ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly ( Melitaea cinxia ) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

scholarly journals Subfossil European bog oaks: population dynamics and long-term growth depressions as indicators of changes in the Holocene hydro-regime and climate

The Holocene ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 695-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanns Hubert Leuschner ◽  
Ute Sass-Klaassen ◽  
Esther Jansma ◽  
Michael G.L. Baillie ◽  
Marco Spurk
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
The Holocene

scholarly journals TIMING THE EMERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF ARABLE FARMING IN SOUTHEASTERN NORWAY BY USING SUMMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF RADIOCARBON DATES AND A BAYESIAN AGE MODEL

Radiocarbon ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Steinar Solheim
Keyword(s):  
Iron Age ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Early Iron Age ◽  
Late Neolithic ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Arable Farming ◽  
Age Model

ABSTRACT The paper explores the emergence and development of arable farming in southeastern Norway by compiling and analyzing directly dated cereals from archaeological contexts. By using summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates and Bayesian modeling, the paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of the directly dated evidence for farming in the region. The models provide a more precise temporal resolution to the development than hitherto presented. The results demonstrate that the introduction of arable farming to southeastern Norway was a long-term development including several steps. Three different stages are pointed out as important in the process of establishing arable farming: the Early and Middle Neolithic, the Late Neolithic, and the Early Iron Age.

Submerged speleothem in Malta indicates tectonic stability throughout the Holocene

The Holocene ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1588-1597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Furlani ◽  
Fabrizio Antonioli ◽  
Timmy Gambin ◽  
Sara Biolchi ◽  
Saviour Formosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Karst Environment ◽  
Marine Deposits ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Term Data

Submerged caves represent potential archives of speleothems with continental and marine biogenic layers. In turn, these can be used to reconstruct relative sea-level changes. This study presents new data on the tectonic behaviour of the island of Malta during the Holocene. These data were obtained from a speleothem sampled, during an underwater survey, at a depth of −14.5 m, inside a recently discovered submerged cave. Since the cave was mainly formed in a subaerial karst environment, the presence of a speleothem with serpulids growing on its continental layers permitted the reconstruction of the chronology for drowning of the cave. The radiocarbon dates obtained from the penultimate and last continental layers of the speleothem, before a serpulid encrustation, were compared with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and global positioning system (GPS) data, together with published sedimentological and archaeological data. The radiocarbon analyses provided an average age of 7.6 ka BP that perfectly aligns with the Lambeck’s model of Holocene sea level. Morevoer, long-term data agree with published archeological and sedimentological data as well as with SAR interpherometric and GPS trends on a decadal scale. We conclude that the Maltese islands were tectonically stable during the Holocene, and this tectonic behaviour still persists nowadays. On the contrary, new informations on older deposits, such as MIS5e (Maritime Isotope Stage, corresponding to 125 ka ago) were not found in the study area, confirming the lack of older Quaternary marine deposits in these islands.

scholarly journals Tracing the Final Bronze Age–Early Iron Age transition. Groningen Institute of Archaeology settlement excavations in the Sibaritide, 2018-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 141-168
Author(s):  
P.M. Van Leusen ◽  
F. Ippolito
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Iron Age ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Early Iron Age ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Geophysical Investigations

We report here on the first two seasons of excavations by the Groningen Institute of Archaeology (the Netherlands) at two settlement sites in the foothill zone of the Sibaritide coastal plain (northern Calabria, Italy). The work is throwing new light on finds assemblages unique to the transitional period of the Final Bronze Age–Early Iron Age, a poorly understood period in southern Italy, and is helping to resolve methodological questions about the interpretation of non-invasive archaeological and geophysical survey data. The finds so far excavated, supported by radiocarbon dates, form one of the first ‘pure’ FBA–EIA transitional assemblages, and thus contribute to fill a significant typochronological hiatus with wider implications for protohistoric archaeology in the region. It is also becoming clear what long-term effects mechanized ploughing has on slope processes and soil profiles typical for the region, knowledge that will help us understand the results of the wider field surveys and geophysical investigations conducted since 2000 in the Raganello River basin.

scholarly journals The Dawn of the Mesolithic on the Plains of Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-383
Author(s):  
Tomasz Płonka ◽  
Dariusz Bobak ◽  
Michał Szuta
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Cultural Landscape ◽  
Cultural Patterns ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
The North

AbstractIn this article we take a fresh look at the population dynamics of the Polish Plain in the transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene, using Bayesian analysis and modelling of radiocarbon dates, and contrast the results with data from the North German Plain. We argue against simple adaptationalist models and instead see the cultural landscape as a complex patchwork of old forms and the emerging new traits of the early Mesolithic. We argue that the Mesolithic directly follows the Final Palaeolithic on the Polish Plain, without the chronological hiatus of 150–300 years that is often assumed for that region; while, by contrast, the two cultural patterns—Final Palaeolithic and microlith-based Mesolithic—overlapped significantly in time on the adjacent North German Plain.

scholarly journals Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record

2015 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 931-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Jabran Zahid ◽  
Erick Robinson ◽  
Robert L. Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Rate Of Growth

The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide.

scholarly journals Population Dynamics in Southern Europe: A Local-Scale Analysis, 1961–2011

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Zambon ◽  
Kostas Rontos ◽  
Pere Serra ◽  
Andrea Colantoni ◽  
Luca Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Settlement Patterns ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Scale Analysis ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Explicit Analysis

Different socioeconomic, historical, political, and cultural factors have influenced long-term settlement patterns and demographic structures in Europe. Southern Europe is considered a relatively homogeneous region as far as settlement characteristics and population dynamics are concerned. Within-country local variability in the spatial distribution of population is high, and inherent differences across countries may outline distinct demographic patterns at regional scale. A comparative, local-scale analysis of population distribution in five countries (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Greece, and Cyprus) over a relatively long time period (1961–2011) contributes to identify latent demographic trends in Mediterranean Europe at the spatial scale of Local Administrative Units (LAU). A spatially-explicit analysis of basic indicators of population density and demographic change allows identification of territorial disparities, reflecting local-scale settlement patterns common to different countries (e.g., population growth along coastal districts). These patterns consolidate a metropolitan hierarchy centered on large—mainly compact—cities and more dispersed conurbations along coastal areas. At the same time, the examined countries present different territorial contexts resulting in distinct population dynamics in turn influenced by internal (e.g., national policies, culture and local identity, class segregation) and exogenous (e.g., economic cycle, urbanization models) factors. A spatially-explicit analysis of demographic trends at local scale may contribute to rethinking urban strategies and adapting spatial planning to heterogeneous socioeconomic contexts across Europe.

scholarly journals Necromys lasiurus: Lessons From a 38-Year Study in an Amazonian Savanna

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarisa Alves Rosa ◽  
Pedro Henrique Salomão Ganança ◽  
Albertina Pimentel Lima ◽  
William Ernest Magnusson
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Population Fluctuations ◽  
Plant Interactions ◽  
Seed Disperser ◽  
Mammal Fauna ◽  
Long Term Studies

Amazonian savannas are isolated patches of open habitats within an array of extensive tropical forest. The mammal fauna of the savannas in the Alter do Chão region (Santarém Municipality), is dominated by Necromys lasiurus, whose populations have been studied by researchers of the National Institute of Amazonian Research since 1983. Here, we summarize the studies and advances made so far to better understand aspects related to population dynamics and ecology of savanna rodents and the strategies they use to persist in an environment with frequent fires subject to global climatic influences. In the Amazonian savannas the species acts as a seed disperser and population fluctuations are related to invertebrate availability, but not with fire or vegetation structure. Global climate appears to affect N. lasiurus population dynamics at local scale (i.e., plot scale) but not at the regional scale of the Alter do Chão savannas. The long-term studies in Alter do Chão generated many advances about Necromys lasiurus population dynamics and ecology, including aspects relating to feeding, home range, animal-plant interactions, the effects of fire and climate change.

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