scholarly journals Predictors of imminent risk of fracture in Medicare-enrolled men and women

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akeem A. Yusuf ◽  
Yan Hu ◽  
David Chandler ◽  
Daria B. Crittenden ◽  
Richard L. Barron

Abstract Summary Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1–2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients. Purpose The burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to understand risk factors for imminent (within 1–2 years) fracture. This study assessed predictors of imminent risk of fracture in the US Medicare population. Methods Administrative claims data from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries were analyzed for patients aged ≥ 67 years on January 1, 2011 (index date), with continuous coverage between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2011, excluding patients with non-melanoma cancer or Paget’s disease. Incident osteoporotic fractures were identified during 12 and 24 months post-index. Potential predictors were age, sex, race, history of fracture, history of falls, presence of osteoporosis, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), mood/anxiety disorders, polyinflammatory conditions, difficulty walking, use of durable medical equipment, ambulance/life support, and pre-index use of osteoporosis medications, steroids, or central nervous system medications. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of fracture risk in the two follow-up intervals. Results Among 1,780,451 individuals included (mean age 77.7 years, 66% female), 8.3% had prior fracture and 6.1% had a history of falls. During the 12- and 24-month follow-up periods, 3.0% and 5.4% of patients had an incident osteoporotic fracture, respectively. Imminent risk of fracture increased with older age (double/triple), female sex (> 80%), recent prior fracture (> double) and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications. Conclusions Demographics and factors including fall/fracture history, comorbidities, and medications contribute to imminent risk of fracture in elderly patients.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying-Chu Chiu ◽  
Tien-Lung Tsai ◽  
Meiyin Su ◽  
Tsan Yang ◽  
Peng-Lin Tseng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) caused by small vessel disease was the main cause of blindness in person with diabetes, and it mainly occurred in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Taiwan was one of the Asian countries with the highest prevalence rate of DR, there were only few studies for the risk of DR in patients with T2DM in Taiwan. According to some studies have shown DR was a major cause of blindness on elderly both in developed and other developing countries. The purpose was to investigate the related risk factors of DR in elderly patients with T2DM. Methods: During July 2010 to December 2017, 4010 T2DM patients without DR were preselected for this study, but 792 patients completed the continuously follow-up evaluation. Patients were invited to have an outpatient visit at least every three months, and they were asked to fill out a brief questionnaire and collect their blood samples. Additionally, statistical methods used independent sample T-test, Chi-square tests and logistic regression in univariate analysis to analyze the relationships between onset DR and each related factor; and finally the optimal multivariate logistic regression model would be determined by stepwise model selection. Results: Of the 792 effective samples, 611 patients (77.1%) progressed to DR and 181 patients (22.9%) did not get DR during the follow-up period. According to the results, the significant factors were women (OR, 2.20; 95%CI, 1.52-3.17), longer diabetic duration (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08), family history of diabetes (OR, 1.55; 95% CI: 1.09-2.21), higher concentration glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (OR, 1.27; 95% CI: 1.12-1.44), higher mean low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) (OR, 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.01), and chewing betel nut (OR, 2.85; 95% CI: 1.41-5.77). Conclusions: This prospective cohort study showed that gender, behavior of chewing betel nut, diabetic duration, family history of diabetes, HbA1c, and LDL-c, were important factors for the development of DR in elderly patients with T2DM. It suggested that those patients should well control their HbA1c and LDL-c and quit chewing betel nut to prevent from DR, especially for female patients with family history of diabetes and longer duration of diabetes.



Author(s):  
Sung Hye Kong ◽  
Jung Hee Kim ◽  
Chan Soo Shin

Abstract Context Metabolomics is an emerging tool that provides insights into the dynamics of phenotypic changes. It is a potential method for the discovery of novel serum markers of fracture. Objective To identify metabolite parameters that can be used as a proxy for osteoporotic fracture risk Design Prospective study based on the Ansung cohort in Korea. Setting The general community. Participants A total of 1504 participants with metabolomic analyses. Interventions None. Main Outcome Measure Fragility fractures. Results We measured 135 baseline metabolite profiles in fasting serum of the participants. The participants had a mean age of 60.2 years and were comprised of 585 (38.9%) men. During a mean 9-year follow-up, 112 osteoporotic fracture events occurred. Of all metabolites measured, only serum spermidine concentrations were positively associated with the risk of fracture (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 μM of spermidine 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.65, P = 0.020) after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, smoking status, previous fracture history, and baseline tibial quantitative ultrasound. Participants with spermidine concentrations >1.57 μM had a 2.2-fold higher risk of fractures (95% CI 1.08–4.51, P = 0.030) compared with those with concentrations ≤1.57 μM after adjustment. In a subgroup analysis, women with baseline spermidine concentrations >1.57 μM also had a 2.4-fold higher risk of fracture than those with concentrations ≤1.57 μM (95% CI 1.02–5.48, P = 0.047). Conclusions Increased baseline spermidine concentrations were associated with a risk of osteoporotic fracture during a mean 9-year follow-up. The biological significance of the metabolites in the musculoskeletal system could be a subject for future studies.



Author(s):  
Peyman Hadji ◽  
Bernd Schweikert ◽  
Edda Kloppmann ◽  
Patrick Gille ◽  
Lars Joeres ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose In osteoporosis, prior fracture is a strong predictor of subsequent fracture. This study aimed to assess the imminent risk of subsequent fracture following an initial fracture in osteoporosis patients in Germany, and to identify clinical and demographic characteristics that are independently associated with subsequent fracture risk. Methods In this retrospective, observational cohort study using German real-world claims data, male and female patients aged ≥ 50 years with osteoporosis who experienced an initial (“index”) hip/femur, vertebral, forearm/wrist/hand or shoulder/upper arm fracture between 2010 and 2014 were included. The incidence and timing of subsequent fractures during a 1-year follow-up period were analyzed. Independent risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified by multivariate regression analysis. Results A total of 18,354 patients (mean age: 77 years; standard deviation: 9.8) were included. Of these, 2918 (15.9%) suffered a subsequent fracture during the 1-year follow-up period. The incidence of subsequent fracture was higher following an index vertebral fracture (18.0%) than after an index forearm/wrist/hand fracture (14.1%) or index hip/femur fracture (12.1%). Subsequent 1-year fracture incidence was generally higher in older patients. Index fracture type, age, epilepsy/use of antiepileptics, and heart failure were all independently associated with subsequent fracture risk. Conclusion Osteoporosis patients in Germany are at imminent risk of subsequent fracture during the first year following an initial fracture. They should be targeted for immediate post-fracture treatment to reduce the risk of further fractures, especially in the presence of specific risk factors such as old age or index vertebral fracture.



2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyuan Lu ◽  
Vincenzo Forgetta ◽  
Julyan Keller-Baruch ◽  
Maria Nethander ◽  
Derrick Bennett ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Accurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction. Methods We examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors. Results A standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727–0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791–0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072. Conclusions We generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture.



2008 ◽  
Vol 149 (11) ◽  
pp. 493-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andor Sebestyén ◽  
Imre Boncz ◽  
Ferenc Tóth ◽  
Márta Péntek ◽  
József Nyárády ◽  
...  

A csípőtáji törésekhez idős korban magas halálozás társul. A szakirodalomban kevés a nagy beteganyagot feldolgozó, országos kiterjedésű ellátórendszer adatain alapuló feldolgozás. Célkitűzés: A tanulmány célja a 60 év feletti akut, monotraumás combnyaktöröttek primer ellátását követő halálozások vizsgálata havonta és évente ötéves utánkövetéssel, valamint a különböző rizikófaktoraik halálozásra gyakorolt hatásainak értékelése az egyes időperiódusokban. Módszer: Az adatok az Országos Egészségbiztosítási Pénztár adatbázisából származnak. Az értékelés bázisát a fekvőbeteg-ellátást végző intézményekből combnyaktörés primer műtéti ellátását követően 2000. évben emittált betegek képezik. Bemutatjuk az átlagos évenkénti, havonkénti és heti halálozási arányokat, valamint rizikótényezők szerinti alakulásukat havonként és évenként. A rizikótényezők és a halálozás kapcsolatának értékelése logisztikus és Cox-regressziós analízissel történik. Eredmények: A tanulmányban 3783 fő került elemzésre. Átlagéletkoruk 77,97 (SD 8,52) év. A halálozás az első héten 1,71%, 30 napon belül 8,99%, az első évben 30,74%, öt év alatt 61,88% volt. A halálozás havi szinten az első 5 hónapig mutat csökkenést, éves szinten az első év után stagnál. A rizikófaktorok közül a férfinem és a magasabb életkor öt évig, a kísérőbetegségek hatásai a negyedik évig, a laterális combnyaktöréstípus és a 12 órán túli ellátás két évig, a korai lokális szövődmények egy évig, a hétvégi ellátások az első hónapban eredményeznek magasabb halálozási kockázatot. Az országos és egyetemi ellátásokat követően az első évben alacsonyabb a halálozási kockázat. Következtetések: A csípőtáji törések managementjében a halálozások csökkentése érdekében hangsúlyozzuk a 12 órán belüli ellátás, a törési típusnak megfelelő módszerválasztás, a hét minden napján történő azonos ellátási feltételek biztosítása, az ellátások centrumokba történő szervezése, a beteg általános állapotának és kísérőbetegségeinek megfelelő akut ellátás és az utókezelések fontosságát.



2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e002099
Author(s):  
Yuji Komorita ◽  
Masae Minami ◽  
Yasutaka Maeda ◽  
Rie Yoshioka ◽  
Toshiaki Ohkuma ◽  
...  

IntroductionType 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with higher fracture risk. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between severe hypoglycemia and fracture risk in patients with T1D, and the results are controversial. Besides, none has investigated the risk factors for fracture in Asian patients with T1D. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of bone fracture and its relationship between severe hypoglycemia and other risk factors in Japanese patients with T1D.Research design and methodsThe single-center cross-sectional study enrolled 388 Japanese patients with T1D (mean age, 45.2 years; women, 60.4%; mean duration of diabetes, 16.6 years) between October 2019 and April 2020. The occurrence and circumstances of any fracture after the diagnosis of T1D were identified using a self-administered questionnaire. The main outcomes were any anatomic site of fracture and fall-related fracture. Severe hypoglycemia was defined as an episode of hypoglycemia that required the assistance of others to achieve recovery.ResultsA total of 92 fractures occurred in 64 patients, and 59 fractures (64%) were fall-related. Only one participant experienced fracture within the 10 years following their diagnosis of diabetes. In logistic regression analysis, the multivariate-adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of a history of severe hypoglycemia were 2.11 (1.11 to 4.09) for any fracture and 1.91 (0.93 to 4.02) for fall-related fracture. Fourteen of 18 participants with multiple episodes of any type of fracture had a history of severe hypoglycemia (p<0.001 vs no fracture).ConclusionsWe have shown that a history of severe hypoglycemia is significantly associated with a higher risk of bone fracture in Japanese patients with T1D.



Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Cantu-Brito ◽  
Erwin Chiquete ◽  
Jose L Ruiz-Sandoval ◽  
Fernando Flores-Silva

Background and Purpose: The objective of this study were to describe the proportion of patients eligible for the COMPASS trial among stable outpatients with either established atherothrombotic disease or major vascular risk factors, and to analyze 6-month incident stroke risk according vascular risk factors at baseline. Methods: We prospectively recruited 5,101 stable outpatients in 172 sites, within the Mexican INDAGA cohort study. Inclusion criteria were age >18 years and established atherothrombotic disease [history of either acute coronary syndromes (ACS), acute ischemic stroke (AIS)/transient ischemic attack (TIA) or peripheral artery disease (PAD)] or major vascular risk factors (age <55 years plus ≥2 major vascular risk factors, or age ≥55 years plus ≥1 vascular risk factors). Among these patients, we applied the selection criteria of the COMPASS trial for analysis, dividing the population in no COMPASS criteria met and COMPASS criteria met, and this last group subdivided among patients with previous AIS/TIA and without this antecedent, in order to stratify the risk for stroke during 6-month follow-up (incident AIS/TIA). Results: Among 5,101 stable outpatients with either established atherothrombotic disease (n=2,827) or major vascular risk factors (n=2,274), a total of 1,927 (37.8%) met COMPASS trial criteria: 1,054 (54.7%) with established cerebrovascular disease (past history of AIS/TIA) and 873 (45.3%) without. During 6-month follow-up, there were 89 incident AIS/TIA (39 AIS and 54 TIA): 1.7% among the whole population and 2.2% among the COMPASS subgroup. AIS/TIA occurred in a similar frequency among the COMPASS subgroup with established cerebrovascular disease (1.6%) and COMPASS without cerebrovascular disease (0.9%) (P=0.18). After a Cox-proportional hazards model, independent predictors of incident AIS/TIA were age ≥65 years (HR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.29-3.07) and established cerebrovascular disease at baseline (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.02-2.53). Conclusions: The majority of stable outpatients at vascular risk met COMPASS selection criteria and could be good candidates for low-dose rivaroxaban in addition to aspirin. Short-term predictors of AIS/TIA were old age and history of cerebrovascular disease



Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 48-49
Author(s):  
Samantha Ferrari ◽  
Chiara Pagani ◽  
Mariella D'Adda ◽  
Nicola Bianchetti ◽  
Annamaria Pelizzari ◽  
...  

Polycythemia Vera (PV) is a chronic myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by erythrocytosis, constitutively active mutations in JAK2 and an increased susceptibility to thrombotic events (TEs). There is still controversy about the role of increased hematocrit and of other variables including elevated white blood cell count as risk factors for the occurrence of TEs. A better definition of the relative prognostic importance of hematologic parameters would help us to better tailor the therapeutic approach to PV patients (pts), which is currently mainly based on the use of acetilsalycilic acid (ASA), venesection and hydroxyurea . The aim of our study was to analyze if any clinical or laboratory variables were significantly associated to the occurrence of TEs both at PV diagnosis and during the course of the disease in a large series of PV pts uniformly followed at a single Center over a period of 29.5 years from January 1986 to June 2019. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained from the time of diagnosis until death, progression to acute leukemia or last follow-up. Hematocrit (Hct), hemoglobin (Hb), white blood cell (WBC) and platelet (PLT) levels were recorded for each patient at least every 6 months. Among a total of 331 pts, the median age was 65 years (range 30-92 years), and 56% were male. "High risk" features (age ≥ 60 years and/or history of prior thrombosis) were present in 221 pts (66.7%). The incidence of cardiovascular risk factors was: hypertension 64%, diabetes 15%, hyperlipidemia 28%, history of active or remote smoking 41%. Patients on ASA were 279 (84%), 19 (6%) were on oral anticoagulation, while 27 (8%) were on ASA+oral anticoagulant. At PV diagnosis 54 pts (16%) presented with thrombosis, arterial in 32 (59%) and venous in 22 (41%). A previous TE was recorded in 57 pts (17%): in 43 (75%) arterial, in 12 (22%) venous and in 2 (3%) mixed (arterial+venous). Previous thrombosis was the only variable significantly associated with the presence of a TE at PV diagnosis (P=0.02). After PV diagnosis, with a median follow-up of 81 months (range 1-374 months), 63 pts (19%) experienced a TE and 11 of them a further episode, for a total of 74 TEs. The incidence rate (pts/year) of TEs was 2.7%. Forty-two events were arterial (57%), 31 were venous (42%) and 1 (1%) was mixed. It was the first TE for 37 pts. Cerebrovascular accidents and deep-venous thrombosis were the most frequent arterial and venous TEs both at PV diagnosis and throughout the disease course, with a relative incidence of 50% and 32% respectively. The table compares the characteristics of patients who did or did not develop a TE after PV diagnosis. At univariate analysis, PV high risk status, a previous TE and hyperlipidemia at PV diagnosis were significantly associated with a subsequent TE. Among hematologic variables an elevated WBC count at the time of thrombosis, but not Hct or PLT levels, was highly significantly associated with the development of a TE. At multivariate analysis, WBC count ≥10.4 x 10^9/L and hyperlipidemia maintained their independent prognostic value, while high risk status and a previous TE lost their prognostic significance. Both at univariate and multivariate analysis, hyperlipidemia at diagnosis (P=0.009 and P=0.002) and high WBC count at thrombosis (P=0.001 and P=&lt;0.0001) predicted for arterial thromboses, while only a history of prior thrombosis (P=0.03) predicted for venous ones. In conclusion, our analysis confirms that elevated WBC count at the moment of the event more than increased hematocrit is associated to the development of thrombosis in PV pts. We also found that hyperlipidemia was an independent risk factor for arterial thrombosis, calling for an accurate management of increased lipid levels. Whether a reduction of the WBC count during the course of PV may reduce the frequency of TE remains to be demonstrated by prospective studies. Table Disclosures D'Adda: Novartis: Other: Advisory board; Incyte: Other: Advisory board; Pfizer: Other: Advisory board. Rossi:Daiichi Sankyo: Consultancy, Honoraria; Sanofi: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Astellas: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Novartis: Other: Advisory board; Alexion: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Pfizer: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Honoraria; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Jazz: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Abbvie: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.



Author(s):  
J. Skov Neergaard ◽  
K. Dragsbæk ◽  
C. Christiansen ◽  
M. Asser Karsdal ◽  
S. Brix ◽  
...  

Background: Identification of subjects with a progressive disease phenotype is an urgent need in the pharmaceutical industry where most of the recent clinical trials in Alzheimer’s disease have failed. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify subgroups of individuals with objective cognitive impairment (OCI), who were most likely to progress to dementia and to identify the risk factors associated with progression. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Population-based. Participants: 5,380 elderly women from Denmark. Measurements: The Short Blessed Test and a category fluency test with animal naming, was used to assess cognitive function, and to classify them into different groups of OCI. Results: OCI was identified in 852 subjects at baseline. The risk of dementia was elevated for OCI subjects as compared to subjects with normal cognition (HR 1.46[1.19-1.79]). The courses of OCI were studied in a sub-cohort who completed the cognitive assessment at both the baseline and the follow-up visit (n = 1,933). Of these subjects 203 had OCI at baseline. The multi-domain subtypes of OCI were associated with progressive OCI. Subjects most likely to progress were older, physically inactive, had a higher level of total cholesterol (>6.5 mmol/L) and had a history of depression as compared to subjects with a non-progressive course of OCI. Conclusions: In this cohort we identified a risk profile associated with progression from OCI in older women. The degree of impairment at baseline was an important predictor of conversion to dementia, additionally several modifiable risk factors were associated with progression.



1970 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
Md Khurshed Ahmed ◽  
Mohammad Salman ◽  
Md Ashraf Uddin Sultan ◽  
Md Abu Siddique ◽  
KMHS Sirajul Haque ◽  
...  

Angiography of patients with typical chest pain reveals normal epicardial coronary arteries in about 15-20%. ECG changes suggestive of myocardial ischemia during exercise also can be demonstrated in this subset of the patients. Total 58 patients (42 females) with mean age 42±7 years who were undergoing coronary angiogram in the Department of Cardiology, University Cardiac Center, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, Dhaka, Bangladesh from January 2005 to December 2009 were evaluated. The patients were recruited on the basis of presence of history of chest pain, with normal resting ECG and ischemia like ECG changes during exercise stress test. 32.8% patients had hypertension and 15.5% were diabetics, 19.0% had dyslipidemia and 6.9% had family history of ischemic heart disease. All the patients were having positive exercise stress test. Angiographic findings showed luminal irregularities in 29.3% patients, 15.5% patients had luminal stenosis less than 30% and rest had normal coronary angiogram. Follow up of the patients after one and six months of angiogram was done. After one month 63.8% patients remained symptomatic and after six months 63.3% patients remained symptomatic despite maximum medical management. The pathophysiology and appropriate management of this subset of the patients still remained a challenge for physicians. Optimum management of cardiovascular risk factors is very important issue in this group of patients.Key words: Angiography; Epicardial coronary arteries; Exercise stress test; Cardiovascular risk factors. DOI: 10.3329/uhj.v6i1.7187University Heart Journal Vol.6(1) 2010 pp.27-31



Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document