scholarly journals Understanding the impact of droughts in the Yarmouk Basin, Jordan: monitoring droughts through meteorological and hydrological drought indices

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alsharifa Hind Mohammad ◽  
Hahn Chul Jung ◽  
Taleb Odeh ◽  
Chandrashekhar Bhuiyan ◽  
Hussam Hussein
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Yarmouk Basin ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

scholarly journals The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 3001-3024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Laaha ◽  
Tobias Gauster ◽  
Lena M. Tallaksen ◽  
Jean-Philippe Vidal ◽  
Kerstin Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Dynamic Development ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time) of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude) and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude), pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices) showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity (magnitude). These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future.

Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Floods over mainland Australia based on Drought Indices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Wang ◽  
Yunzhong Shen ◽  
Fengwei Wang ◽  
Weiwei Li
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Hydrological Conditions ◽  
Drought And Flood ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Droughts And Floods

<p>Climate change has led to increased droughts and floods over mainland Australia, resulting in water scarcity, excessive surplus and socioeconomic losses. Therefore, it is of great significance to comprehensively evaluate droughts and floods from the meteorological and hydrological perspective. Firstly, we determine the Standard Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) by correlation analysis to represent the meteorological conditions. To characterize the hydrological conditions, we calculate the hydrological drought indices including Standard Runoff Index (SRI), Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), and Total Storage Deficit Index (TSDI), using the runoff and soil moisture data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the Terrestrial Water Storage Change (TWSC) data from Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) respectively. Results show that the most severe hydrological drought over mainland Australia during the study period occurred from May 2006 to Jan. 2009 with the drought severity of -58.28 (cm months) and the most severe flood from Jun. 2010 to Jan. 2013 is with the severity of 151.36 (cm months). The comprehensive analysis of both meteorological and hydrological drought indices shows that both meteorological and hydrological drought indices can effectively detect the droughts and floods over mainland Australia. Moreover, the meteorological drought and flood are of higher frequency, while hydrological drought and flood have a relatively longer duration. Based on the cross-correlation analysis, we find that the SPEI can firstly reflect the droughts or floods over mainland Australia, and then the SRI, SMDI and TSDI reflect with the time lags of one, three and six months respectively. Furthermore, we calculate the frequency of drought and flood at the basin scale and find that SPEI and SMDI are equally sensitive to drought and flood, while TSDI is more sensitive to flood than drought. This study reveals the relationship between meteorological and hydrological conditions in mainland Australia in the last two decades and highlights its intensifying extreme climate conditions under the circumstances of the increasing temperature and complex changing precipitation.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 5041-5056 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Miguel Delgado ◽  
Sebastian Voss ◽  
Gerd Bürger ◽  
Klaus Vormoor ◽  
Aline Murawski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Drought ◽  
Drought Prediction

Abstract. A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará's research foundation for meteorology) and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation, (b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil.

Physical factors of influence in the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture driving the spatio-temporal evolution of drought patterns in the Ebro Basin (NE Spain).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Gaona ◽  
Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽  
Maria José Escorihuela
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

<p>Droughts in the Iberian Peninsula are a natural hazard of great relevance due to their recurrence, severity and impact on multiple environmental and socioeconomic aspects. The Ebro Basin, located in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula, is particularly vulnerable to drought with consequences on agriculture, urban water supply and hydropower. This study, performed within the Project HUMID (CGL2017-85687-R), aims at evaluating the influence of the climatic, land cover and soil characteristics on the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture anomalies which define the spatio-temporal drought patterns in the basin.</p><p>The onset, propagation and mitigation of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula is driven by anomalies of rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, which are related by feedback processes. To test the relative importance of such anomalies, we evaluate the contribution of climatic, land-cover and geologic heterogeneity on the definition of the spatio-temporal patterns of drought. We use the Köppen-Geiger climatic classification to assess how the contrasting climatic types within the basin determine differences on drought behavior. Land-cover types that govern the partition between evaporation and transpiration are also of great interest to discern the influence of vegetation and crop types on the anomalies of evapotranspiration across the distinct regions of the basin (e.g. forested mountains vs. crop-dominated areas). The third physical characteristic whose effect on drought we investigate is the impact of soil properties on soil moisture anomalies.</p><p>The maps and time series used for the spatio-temporal analysis are based on drought indices calculated with high-resolution datasets from remote sensing (MOD16A2ET and SMOS1km) and the land-surface model SURFEX-ISBA. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the EvapoTranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) are the three indices chosen to characterize the anomalies of the corresponding rainfall (atmospheric), evapotranspiration (atmosphere-land interface) and soil moisture (land) anomalies (components of the water balance). The comparison of the correlations of the indices (with different time lags) between contrasting regions offers insights about the impact of climate, land-cover and soil properties in the dominance, the timing of the response and memory aspects of the interactions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing and land-surface model data allows adopting time and spatial scales suitable to investigate the influence of these physical factors with detail beyond comparison with ground-based datasets.</p><p>The spatial and temporal analysis prove useful to investigate the physical factors of influence on the anomalies between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This approach facilitates the physical interpretation of the anomalies of drought indices aiming to improve the characterization of drought in heterogeneous semi-arid areas like the Ebro River Basin.</p>

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Yao ◽  
Wen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Huai River Basin

: Hydrological droughts were characterized using the run-length theory and the AIC (Akaike information criterion) techniques were accepted to evaluate the modeling performance of nine probability functions. In addition, the copula functions were used to describe joint probability behaviors of drought duration and drought severity for the major tributaries of the Huai River Basin (HRB) which is located in the transitional zone between humid and semi-humid climates. The results indicated that: (1) the frequency of hydrological droughts in the upper HRB is higher than that in the central HRB, while the duration of the hydrological drought is in reverse spatial pattern. The drought frequency across the Shiguan River along the south bank of the HRB is higher than the other two tributaries; (2) generalized Pareto distribution is the appropriate distribution function with the best performance in modelling the drought duration over the HRB; while the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution can effectively describe the probabilistic properties of the drought severity. Joe copula and Tawn copula functions are the best choices and were used in this study. Given return periods of droughts of <30 years, the droughts in the upper HRB are the longest, and the shortest are in the central HRB; (3) the frequency of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is higher than tributaries of the HRB. However, concurrence probability of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is lower than the tributaries of the HRB. The drought resistance capacity of HRB has been significantly improved, effectively reducing the impact of hydrological drought on crops after 2010.

scholarly journals Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Meza ◽  
Stefan Siebert ◽  
Petra Döll ◽  
Jürgen Kusche ◽  
Claudia Herbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Coping Capacity ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities, and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rain-fed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a social-ecological systems perspective, using social-ecological susceptibility and lack of coping capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems displays heterogeneous pattern at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

scholarly journals Assessment of spatiotemporal characteristics of agro-meteorological drought events based on comparing Standardized Soil Moisture Index, Standardized Precipitation Index and Multivariate Standardized Drought Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Khan ◽  
Xingye Zhu ◽  
Muhammad Arshad ◽  
Muhammad Zaman ◽  
Yasir Niaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Moisture Index ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Soil Moisture Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Standardized Drought Index

Abstract Drought indices that compute drought events by their statistical properties are essential stratagems for the estimation of the impact of drought events on a region. This research presents a quantitative investigation of drought events by analyzing drought characteristics, considering agro-meteorological aspects in the Heilongjiang Province of China during 1980 to 2015. To examine these aspects, the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) were used to evaluate the drought characteristics. The results showed that almost half of the extreme and exceptional drought events occurred during 1990–92 and 2004–05. The spatiotemporal analysis of drought characteristics assisted in the estimation of the annual drought frequency (ADF, 1.20–2.70), long-term mean drought duration (MDD, 5–11 months), mean drought severity (MDS, −0.9 to −2.9), and mild conditions of mean drought intensity (MDI, −0.2 to −0.80) over the study area. The results obtained by MSDI reveal the drought onset and termination based on the combination of SPI and SSI, with onset being dominated by SPI and drought persistence being more similar to SSI behavior. The results of this study provide valuable information and can prove to be a reference framework to guide agricultural production in the region.

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