scholarly journals Impacts as Triggers for Weather-Related Decision Making: Observations at the Berlin Fire Brigade Control and Dispatch Center

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kox ◽  
Catharina Lüder
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Personal Contact ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Fire Brigade ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractThis article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations. The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences, and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather. The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone. Instead, they are reactions to the experience of impacts, for example, an increased number of missions or emergency calls. Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making. Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade. While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment, verified by ground truth, observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations. The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services, the weather service, and other organizations to integrate weather information, impacts, and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.

Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings*

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1412-1429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
Daniel T. Lindsey ◽  
Andrea B. Schumacher ◽  
Jeff Braun ◽  
Steven D. Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Of Day ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Front Range ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract On 22 May 2008, a strong tornado—rated EF3 on the enhanced Fujita scale, with winds estimated between 136 and 165 mi h−1 (61 and 74 m s−1)—caused extensive damage along a 55-km track through northern Colorado. The worst devastation occurred in and around the town of Windsor, and in total there was one fatality, numerous injuries, and hundreds of homes significantly damaged or destroyed. Several characteristics of this tornado were unusual for the region from a climatological perspective, including its intensity, its long track, its direction of motion, and the time of day when it formed. These unusual aspects and the high impact of this tornado also raised a number of questions about the communication and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by decision makers and the public. First, the study examines the meteorological circumstances responsible for producing such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and mesoscale environmental conditions that were favorable for significant tornadoes on 22 May 2008 is presented. Then, a climatology of significant tornadoes (defined as those rated F2 or higher on the Fujita scale, or EF2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita scale) near the Front Range is shown to put the 22 May 2008 event into climatological context. This study also examines the communication and interpretation of severe weather information in an area that experiences tornadoes regularly but is relatively unaccustomed to significant tornadoes. By conducting interviews with local decision makers, the authors have compiled and chronicled the flow of information as the event unfolded. The results of these interviews demonstrate that the initial sources of warning information varied widely. Decision makers’ interpretations of the warnings also varied, which led to different perceptions on the timeliness and clarity of the warning information. The decision makers’ previous knowledge of the typical local characteristics of tornadoes also affected their interpretations of the tornado threat. The interview results highlight the complex series of processes by which severe weather information is communicated after a warning is issued by the National Weather Service. The results of this study support the growing recognition that societal factors are just as important to the effectiveness of weather warnings as the timeliness of and information provided in those warnings, and that these factors should be considered in future research in addition to the investments and attention given to improving detection and warning capabilities.

Effective Method to Convey Threat Information for Tornado: Probabilistic Hazard Information vs. Deterministic Hazard Information

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 292-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed M. Miran ◽  
Chen Ling ◽  
Joseph J. James ◽  
Alan Gerard ◽  
Lans Rothfusz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Surrounding Area ◽  
Target Zone ◽  
Severe Storm ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Protective Actions

Effective conveyance of hazard information to society is crucial for enhancing public preparedness for the uncertainty involved in the occurrence of tornadoes. The WarnGen system is currently used for issuing deterministic severe weather warnings. To provide society with probabilistic weather information, researchers at The National Severe Storm Laboratory are developing a tool called Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). The current study reports an experiment intended to figure out if including information about the uncertainty of a tornado occurrence provided through PHI would help people understand the weather information better and take more appropriate protective action. Our group also wanted to investigate if including probabilistic information about the surrounding area of the target zone would be effective in people’s decision making regarding their safety. The results show that including information about uncertainty in the weather information makes it more effective than the deterministic hazard information in terms of perception, cognition, and protective actions of recipients. Also, presence of information about the target zone’s surrounding area does not have any significant effect on their decision making.

scholarly journals Emergency Management Decision Making during Severe Weather

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1268-1279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh A. Baumgart ◽  
Ellen J. Bass ◽  
Brenda Philips ◽  
Kevin Kloesel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model

Abstract Emergency managers make time-sensitive decisions in order to protect the public from threats including severe weather. Simulation and questionnaires were used to capture the decision-making process of emergency managers during severe weather events. These data were combined with insights from emergency manager instructors, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, and experienced emergency managers to develop a descriptive decision-making model of weather information usage, weather assessments, and decisions made during severe weather. This decision-making model can be used to develop better decision support tools, improve training, and to understand how innovative weather information could potentially affect emergency managers’ role of protecting the public.

Emergency management decision-making during severe weather

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh A. Baumgart ◽  
Ellen J. Bass ◽  
Brenda Philips ◽  
Kevin Kloesel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Management Decision Making

Bayesian Decision-Making Based Recommendation Trust Revision Model in Ad Hoc Networks

2009 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 2574-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Xing SUN ◽  
Song-Hua HUANG ◽  
Li-Jun CHEN ◽  
Li XIE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ad Hoc Networks ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Hoc Networks ◽  
Bayesian Decision Making

scholarly journals Economic Development Based on a Mathematical Model: An Optimal Solution Method for the Fuel Supply of International Road Transport Activity

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2963
Author(s):  
Melinda Timea Fülöp ◽  
Miklós Gubán ◽  
György Kovács ◽  
Mihály Avornicului
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Fuel Cost

Due to globalization and increased market competition, forwarding companies must focus on the optimization of their international transport activities and on cost reduction. The minimization of the amount and cost of fuel results in increased competition and profitability of the companies as well as the reduction of environmental damage. Nowadays, these aspects are particularly important. This research aims to develop a new optimization method for road freight transport costs in order to reduce the fuel costs and determine optimal fueling stations and to calculate the optimal quantity of fuel to refill. The mathematical method developed in this research has two phases. In the first phase the optimal, most cost-effective fuel station is determined based on the potential fuel stations. The specific fuel prices differ per fuel station, and the stations are located at different distances from the main transport way. The method developed in this study supports drivers’ decision-making regarding whether to refuel at a farther but cheaper fuel station or at a nearer but more expensive fuel station based on the more economical choice. Thereafter, it is necessary to determine the optimal fuel volume, i.e., the exact volume required including a safe amount to cover stochastic incidents (e.g., road closures). This aspect of the optimization method supports drivers’ optimal decision-making regarding optimal fuel stations and how much fuel to obtain in order to reduce the fuel cost. Therefore, the application of this new method instead of the recently applied ad-hoc individual decision-making of the drivers results in significant fuel cost savings. A case study confirmed the efficiency of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Promoting Interpersonal Relationships through Elbow Tag, a Traditional Sporting Game. A Multidimensional Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7887
Author(s):  
Verónica Muñoz-Arroyave ◽  
Miguel Pic ◽  
Rafael Luchoro-Parrilla ◽  
Jorge Serna ◽  
Cristòfol Salas-Santandreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Motor Behaviors ◽  
Quasi Experimental

The aim of this research was to study from a multidimensional point of view (decisional, relational and energetic) the interpersonal relationships established by girls and boys in the traditional sport game of Elbow Tag. Scientific evidence has shown that Traditional Sport Games (TSG) trigger different effects on male and female genders in relation to emotional experiences, decision-making, conflicts and motor relationships. Despite the fact that these dimensions are intertwined, there are hardly any studies that interpret motor behaviors holistically, i.e., taking a multidimensional (360°) view of these dimensions. For this study, a quasi-experimental design was used and a type III design was applied, inspired by the observational methodology N/P/M. A total of 147 university students participated (M = 19.6, SD = 2.3): 47 girls (31.97%) and 100 boys (68.02%). A mixed ‘ad hoc’ registration system was designed with acceptable margins of data quality. Cross-tabulations, classification trees and T-patterns analysis were applied. The results indicated that social interactions between girls and boys in a mixed group were unequal. This difference was mainly due to decision-making (sub-role variable), which has much greater predictive power than the energetic variables (MV and steps).

OP69 Hospital-based Health Technology Assessment Is Applicable To Investment Decision-Making Process

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 30-31
Author(s):  
Tuija Ikonen ◽  
Heli Lähteenmäki
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Budget Planning

INTRODUCTION:Hospital mangers need information for decision making (1). Hospital-based health technology assessment (HTA) methods were tested out to support the budget planning of investments for a new building to be constructed for diagnostic and teaching units at a publicly funded tertiary care university hospital. The hospital board nominated an ad hoc working group to reassess all investment proposals for devices, equipment and furniture for the diagnostic or teaching units that intended to move into the new building. The need for assessment was obliged when the submitted proposals of the units exceeded two-fold the initially allocated investment budget.METHODS:Depending on the level of expenditure, all proposals were assessed by one of the following processes: (i) Proposals over EUR250,000 were evaluated by three to five person expert groups using multi-domain assessment adapting Hospital-based HTA-principles; (ii) Proposals between EUR50,000 and EUR250,000 were returned to the units for miniHTA-assessments by clinicians who submitted the initial proposals and (iii) All proposals below EUR50,000 were prioritized by the units to cut the expenditure by at least 25 percent, with a special emphasis on synergistic use of devices and equipment among the units.RESULTS:The expert groups suggested significant reductions to the proposals, including the withdrawal of a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)-unit considered to be suboptimally located. Furthermore, the need for a new scanner was declined by promoting adherence to evidence-based diagnostic guidelines and more efficient utilization of existing scanners. Self-assessed MiniHTAs revealed proposals that were unnecessary or the specifications for devices needed re-adjustments. Prioritization revealed excess numbers of devices, for instance the number of cold storage appliances could be reduced. Altogether, the investment proposals were cut by over EUR3.8 million to reach the initial budgetary allocation.CONCLUSIONS:Innovative and flexible usage of hospital-based HTA methodology can be applied to budget planning and evaluation of investment proposals to support decision making. Based on encouraging results, hospital-based HTA was accepted to become a part of hospital strategy as a tool for the annual investment planning.

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