scholarly journals En route to the North: modelling crested porcupine habitat suitability and dispersal flows across a highly anthropized area in northern Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Torretta ◽  
Valerio Orioli ◽  
Luciano Bani ◽  
Sergio Mantovani ◽  
Olivia Dondina
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Landscape Resistance ◽  
Least Cost Path ◽  
Po Plain ◽  
The North ◽  
Crested Porcupine ◽  
Water Courses ◽  
Dispersal Corridors

AbstractThe crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) underwent a rapid and widespread range expansion in Italy. Nowadays the species is moving towards the northernmost regions of the country and its occurrence is increasing in the highly anthropized Po Plain. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Po Plain for the species, as well as to identify dispersal corridors connecting the northern Apennines occurrence areas and the Prealps. We modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Additionally, a habitat suitability prediction carried out at a finer scale was used to parametrize the landscape resistance, based on which we modelled the potential dispersal corridors for the species using a factorial least-cost path approach. The ensemble prediction estimated a potential occurrence of the crested porcupine in 27.4% of the study area. The species occurrence probability was mainly driven by the distribution of extensive cultivations, woodlands and shrublands, and water courses and by the annual mean temperature. Conversely, the movements of the species resulted mainly sustained by woodlands and shrublands and highly hindered by simple arable lands and rice paddies. The connectivity prediction showed that three main dispersal routes are likely to connect crested porcupine occurrence areas in the northern Apennines to currently unoccupied but highly suitable areas in the Prealps. The study allowed us to identify the areas in the Prealps with the highest probability to be colonized by the crested porcupine in the near future and provided important insights for the conservation of a strictly protected species in a human-dominated landscape.

scholarly journals First assessment of habitat suitability and connectivity for the golden jackal in north-eastern Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 100 (6) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Elisa Torretta ◽  
Olivia Dondina ◽  
Claudio Delfoco ◽  
Luca Riboldi ◽  
Valerio Orioli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Selection ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Golden Jackal ◽  
Landscape Resistance ◽  
Least Cost Path ◽  
Study Region ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Kernel Approach

AbstractCompared with the rapid expansion across Europe, the golden jackal colonization of Italy is still limited and slow. No study focused on the habitat selection or landscape connectivity for this species was performed in Italy; thus, the potential distribution and dispersal patterns in the country remain unknown. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (north-eastern Italy) for the golden jackal, as well as to identify the ecological corridors connecting the areas currently occupied by the species. Corridors modelling allowed us both to hypothesize the dispersal dynamics occurring in the study region and to identify possible obstacles to future range expansion. We surveyed golden jackal presence in two study areas, covering an area of 500 km2, from March 2017 to February 2018. Using collected data, we modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Subsequently, a habitat suitability prediction at a finer scale was used to estimate landscape resistance, starting from which, we modelled dispersal corridors among areas currently occupied by the species using a factorial least cost path and a cumulative resistant kernel approach. Our results indicated a moderate potential for large parts of the study region to support the occurrence of golden jackal family groups, whose presence seems to be mainly driven by the presence of wide areas covered by broadleaved forests and shrublands and by the absence of wide intensive agricultural areas. The predicted connectivity networks showed that three main permeable corridors are likely to connect golden jackal occurrence areas within the study region, while all the other corridors are characterized by a very low path density. Both the habitat selection and connectivity analyses showed a strong negative impact of the intensive cultivated plain on species stable presence and movement providing critical information for the conservation of the golden jackal in Italy.

scholarly journals Burial-deformation History of Folded Rocks Unraveled by Fracture Analysis, Stylolite Paleopiezometry and Vein Cement Geochemistry: A Case Study in the Cingoli Anticline (Umbria-Marche, Northern Apennines)

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Aurélie Labeur ◽  
Nicolas E. Beaudoin ◽  
Olivier Lacombe ◽  
Laurent Emmanuel ◽  
Lorenzo Petracchini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Isotope Geochemistry ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Microstructural Analysis ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Foreland Basins ◽  
Deformation History ◽  
The North ◽  
Regional Tectonic ◽  
History Of ◽  
Clumped Isotope

Unravelling the burial-deformation history of sedimentary rocks is prerequisite information to understand the regional tectonic, sedimentary, thermal, and fluid-flow evolution of foreland basins. We use a combination of microstructural analysis, stylolites paleopiezometry, and paleofluid geochemistry to reconstruct the burial-deformation history of the Meso-Cenozoic carbonate sequence of the Cingoli Anticline (Northern Apennines, central Italy). Four major sets of mesostructures were linked to the regional deformation sequence: (i) pre-folding foreland flexure/forebulge; (ii) fold-scale layer-parallel shortening under a N045 σ1; (iii) syn-folding curvature of which the variable trend between the north and the south of the anticline is consistent with the arcuate shape of the anticline; (iv) the late stage of fold tightening. The maximum depth experienced by the strata prior to contraction, up to 1850 m, was quantified by sedimentary stylolite paleopiezometry and projected on the reconstructed burial curve to assess the timing of the contraction. As isotope geochemistry points towards fluid precipitation at thermal equilibrium, the carbonate clumped isotope thermometry (Δ47) considered for each fracture set yields the absolute timing of the development and exhumation of the Cingoli Anticline: layer-parallel shortening occurred from ~6.3 to 5.8 Ma, followed by fold growth that lasted from ~5.8 to 3.9 Ma.

Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
James I. Belanger ◽  
Peter J. Webster ◽  
Judith A. Curry ◽  
Mark T. Jelinek
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The North

Abstract This analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including tropical cyclone genesis, pregenesis and postgenesis track and intensity projections, and regional outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Based on the evaluation period from 2007 to 2010, the VarEPS TC genesis forecasts demonstrate low false-alarm rates and moderate to high probabilities of detection for lead times of 1–7 days. In addition, VarEPS pregenesis track forecasts on average perform better than VarEPS postgenesis forecasts through 120 h and feature a total track error growth of 41 n mi day−1. VarEPS provides superior postgenesis track forecasts for lead times greater than 12 h compared to other models, including the Met Office global model (UKMET), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Global Forecasting System (GFS), and slightly lower track errors than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This paper concludes with a discussion of how VarEPS can provide much of this extended predictability within a probabilistic framework for the region.

scholarly journals Impacts of Industrial Effluent on River Kabul

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 44-47
Author(s):  
Ghazal Nosheen ◽  
Muhammad Ullah ◽  
Kashif Ahmad Khan ◽  
Attiq Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Effluent ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
High Strength ◽  
Textile Mills ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
The North ◽  
Water Courses ◽  
Receiving Stream ◽  
River Kabul ◽  
Industrial Units

The disposal of untreated industrial effluent into receiving water courses has become a major environmental challenge being faced by most of the developing countries. The high-strength and toxic wastes are responsible for a variety of water-borne diseases. In Pakistan numerous industrial units that dispose their effluent directly into receiving stream without any treatment. This study was, therefor designed to assess the wastewater characteristics of some major industrial units in the surrounding area of River Kabul, which is one of the most signifi cant resources of water in the north region of the country.The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the wastewater characteristics of some major industrial units in terms of BOD (Biochemical Oxygen Demand), COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand), and TSS (Total Suspended Solids) etc. For this purpose, various representative samples were collected from the major industrial units like sugar, paper, ghee (Butter) and textile mills, and were analyzed using standard laboratory techniques. The results indicates that the BOD of sugar, paper, ghee (butter) and textile mills is in the range of 2235mg/L, 1150mg/L, 844mg/L and 745mg/L, respectively. Whereas, the COD of sugar, paper, ghee and textile mills was noticed to be 3945mg/L 2045mg/L, 2240mg/L and 1244mg/L respectively. Owing to the disposal of such highstrength wastes water without treatment, a remarkable increase in the TSS from 96 to 382mg/L, and decrease in DO (Dissolved Oxygen) concentration from 8.8 to 6.7mg/L of River Kabul was observed. The results of this study suggest that all the wastewater coming from the industrial sources should be properly treated as an integral part of their production before their fi nal disposal into River Kabul to secure its natural water quality.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v8i0.4924Hydro Nepal: Journal of Water, Energy and Environment Issue No. 8, 2011 JanuaryPage: 44-47Uploaded date: 23 June, 2011

scholarly journals Current knowledge on the crustal properties of Italy

1994 ◽  
Vol 37 (5 Sup.) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Morelli
Keyword(s):  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Gravity Data ◽  
Maximum Depth ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Po Plain ◽  
Reflection Seismic ◽  
Adriatic Plate ◽  
The North

The recent advances in experimental petrography together with the information derived from the super-deep drilling projects have provided additional constraints for the interpretation of refraction and reflection seismic data. These constraints can also be used in the interpretation of magnetic and gravity data to resolve nonuniqueness. In this study, we re-interpret the magnetic and gravity data of the Italian peninsula and neighbouring areas. In view of the constraints mentioned above, it is now possible to find an agreement between the seismic and gravity models of the Central Alps. By taking into account the overall crustal thickness, we have recognized the existence of three types of Moho: 1) European which extends to the north and west of the peninsula and in the Corsican-Sardinian block. Its margin was the foreland in the Alpine Orogeny and it was the ramp on which European and Adriatic mantle and crustal slices were overthrusted. This additional load caused bending and deepening and the Moho which now lies beneath the Adriatic plate reaching a maximum depth of approximately 75 km. 2) Adriatic (or African) which lies beneath the Po plain, the Apennines and the Adriatic Sea. The average depth of the Moho is about 30-35 km below the Po plain and the Adriatic Sea and it increases toward the Alps and the Tyrrhenian Sea (acting as foreland along this margin). The maximum depth (50 km) is reached in Calabria. 3) Pery-Tyrrhenian. This is an oceanic or thinned continental crust type of Moho. It borders the oceanic Moho of the Tyrrhenian Sea and it acquires a transitional character in the Ligurian and Provençal basins (<15 km thickness) while further thickening occurs toward the East where the Adriatic plate is overthrusted. In addition, the interpretation of the heat flow data appears to confirm the origin of this Moho and its geodynamic allocation.

scholarly journals How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 997-1014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
Gualtiero Badin ◽  
Inga M. Koszalka
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

ABSTRACT The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions.

The Miocene Petroleum System of the Northern Apennines in the Central Po Plain (Italy)

2007 ◽  
pp. 117-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Picotti ◽  
Rossella Capozzi ◽  
Giuseppe Bertozzi ◽  
Fausto Mosca ◽  
Andrea Sitta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Petroleum System ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Po Plain

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Baye Mbaye ◽  
Thomas Doniol‐Valcroze ◽  
Pablo Brosset ◽  
Martin Castonguay ◽  
Elisabeth Van Beveren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Spawning Habitat ◽  
North West ◽  
Atlantic Mackerel ◽  
The North

scholarly journals The Skill of Seasonal Ensemble Prediction Systems to Forecast Wintertime Windstorm Frequency over the North Atlantic and Europe

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 3052-3068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Renggli ◽  
Gregor C. Leckebusch ◽  
Uwe Ulbrich ◽  
Stephanie N. Gleixner ◽  
Eberhard Faust
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Storm Frequency ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
High Skill

The science of seasonal predictions has advanced considerably in the last decade. Today, operational predictions are generated by several institutions, especially for variables such as (sea) surface temperatures and precipitation. In contrast, few studies have been conducted on the seasonal predictability of extreme meteorological events such as European windstorms in winter. In this study, the predictive skill of extratropical wintertime windstorms in the North Atlantic/European region is explored in sets of seasonal hindcast ensembles from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) and the ENSEMBLE-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES) projects. The observed temporal and spatial climatological distributions of these windstorms are reasonably well reproduced in the hindcast data. Using hindcasts starting on 1 November, significant predictive skill is found for the December–February windstorm frequency in the period 1980–2001, but also for the January–April storm frequency. Specifically, the model suite run at Météo France shows consistently high skill. Some aspects of the variability of skill are discussed. Predictive skill in the 1980–2001 period is usually higher than for the 1960–2001 period. Furthermore, the level of skill turns out to be related to the storm frequency of a given winter. Generally, winters with high storm frequency are better predicted than winters with medium storm frequency. Physical mechanisms potentially leading to such a variability of skill are discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document