The Rate of Spread of an Advantageous Allele in a Subdivided Population

Author(s):  
M. SLATKIN
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Zen ◽  
Jan C. Thomas ◽  
Eric V. Mueller ◽  
Bhisham Dhurandher ◽  
Michael Gallagher ◽  
...  

AbstractA new instrument to quantify firebrand dynamics during fires with particular focus on those associated with the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) has been developed. During WUI fires, firebrands can ignite spot fires, which can rapidly increase the rate of spread (ROS) of the fire, provide a mechanism by which the fire can pass over firebreaks and are the leading cause of structure ignitions. Despite this key role in driving wildfire dynamics and hazards, difficulties in collecting firebrands in the field and preserving their physical condition (e.g. dimensions and temperature) have limited the development of knowledge of firebrand dynamics. In this work we present a new, field-deployable diagnostic tool, an emberometer, designed to provide measurement of firebrand fluxes and information on both the geometry and the thermal conditions of firebrands immediately before deposition by combining a visual and infrared camera. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted to calibrate and validate the developed imaging techniques. The emberometer was then deployed in the field to explore firebrand fluxes and particle conditions for a range of fire intensities in natural pine forest environments. In addition to firebrand particle characterization, field observations with the emberometer enabled detailed time history of deposition (i.e. firebrand flux) relative to concurrent in situ fire behaviour observations. We highlight that deposition was characterised by intense, short duration “showers” that can be reasonably associated to spikes in the average fire line intensity. The results presented illustrate the potential use of an emberometer in studying firebrand and spot fire dynamics.


Genetics ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 166 (2) ◽  
pp. 1105-1114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua L Cherry

Abstract In a subdivided population, the interaction between natural selection and stochastic change in allele frequency is affected by the occurrence of local extinction and subsequent recolonization. The relative importance of selection can be diminished by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. Results are presented for subdivided populations with extinction and recolonization where there is more than one founding allele after extinction, where these may tend to come from the same source deme, where the number of founding alleles is variable or the founders make unequal contributions, and where there is dominance for fitness or local frequency dependence. The behavior of a selected allele in a subdivided population is in all these situations approximately the same as that of an allele with different selection parameters in an unstructured population with a different size. The magnitude of the quantity Nese, which determines fixation probability in the case of genic selection, is always decreased by extinction and recolonization, so that deleterious alleles are more likely to fix and advantageous alleles less likely to do so. The importance of dominance or frequency dependence is also altered by extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations.


1995 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
GJ Mitchell ◽  
RJ Carter ◽  
SR Chinner

Water-dropwort (Oenanthe pimpinelloides L.), a tuberous perennial herb, is currently known in South Australia from only a single locality in the Mount Lofty Ranges. There is little information on water-dropwort control, and 2 experiments were conducted to assess the effects of sowing pasture, with or without presowing herbicides, on the control of this weed. Phalaris (Phalaris aquatica L.) and perennial clovers were successfully introduced into infested pastures by direct drilling in autumn. Water-dropwort regenerated from seed more densely in unsown plots than plots of established perennial pasture, suggesting that upgrading pastures may be a strategy to reduce the rate of spread by seed of this weed. A range of herbicide treatments applied to waterdropwort at the stem elongation stage in spring before autumn sowing of pastures provided effective shortterm control. The best short-term control was provided by glyphosate at 1440 g a.i./ha; metsulfuron methyl at 6, 12, and 36 g a.i./ha; and metsulfuron methyl at 12 g a.i./ha tank-mixed with glyphosate or 2,4-D amine at 720 or 1000 g a.i./ha, respectively. These treatments, and chlorsulfuron at 21 g a.i./ha, also significantly (P<0.05) reduced water-dropwort abundance (relative to untreated areas) for up to 18 months after sowing and initially improved the density of sown pasture species, but these improvements were not evident 14 months after resowing. Although prior season herbicide treatments controlled water-dropwort in newly sown pastures, 2 separate applications of herbicides, in May and October, gave no better control of water-dropwort than a single herbicide application in spring. Water-dropwort infestations do not appear to prevent successful direct drilling of phalaris and perennial clovers. Although pasture renovation did not provide long-term suppression of water-dropwort, the maintenance of vigorous pastures may reduce the rate of population growth from seedlings of this weed. Recropping restrictions may limit the role of chlorsulfuron for water-dropwort control in pasture renovation situations.


1971 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. H. Korst ◽  
W. L. Chow

Analysis of turbulent isobaric free jet mixing normally requires the introduction of suitably formulated viscosity models. Similarity solutions can then be established which contain one empirical parameter. Such a parameter, however, not only describes the rate of spread of the mixing region, but also determines in detail the structure of the entire flow field. It is pointed out that this “spread rate parameter” σ depends on the selected viscosity model, the method of theoretical analysis, and the definition of profile matching. A comparison of different theoretical profiles can only be accomplished after these factors are properly recognized. Any attempts to contribute to the rather incomplete knowledge of the spread parameter must be cognizant of its dependence on the theoretical mixing model employed. This paper also establishes theoretical relations which allow comparison and consolidation of information based on different analytical concepts.


2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 221-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Hoffman ◽  
J. Canfield ◽  
R. R. Linn ◽  
W. Mell ◽  
C. H. Sieg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 3015-3028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin E Alexander ◽  
Miguel G Cruz

We evaluated the predictive capacity of a rate of spread model for active crown fires (M.G. Cruz, M.E. Alexander, and R.H. Wakimoto. 2005. Can. J. For. Res. 35: 1626–1639) using a relatively large (n = 57) independent data set originating from wildfire observations undertaken in Canada and the United States. The assembled wildfire data were characterized by more severe burning conditions and fire behavior in terms of rate of spread and the degree of crowning activity than the data set used to parameterize the crown fire rate of spread model. The statistics used to evaluate model adequacy showed good fit and a level of uncertainty considered acceptable for a wide variety of fire management and fire research applications. The crown fire rate of spread model predicted 42% of the data with an error lower then ±25%. Mean absolute percent errors of 51% and 60% were obtained for Canadian and American wildfires, respectively. The characteristics of the data set did not allow us to determine where model performance was weaker and consequently identify its shortcomings and areas of future improvement. The level of uncertainty observed suggests that the model can be readily utilized in support of operational fire management decision making and for simulations in fire research studies.


Genetics ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 160 (3) ◽  
pp. 1191-1202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C Whitlock

Abstract The subdivision of a species into local populations causes its response to selection to change, even if selection is uniform across space. Population structure increases the frequency of homozygotes and therefore makes selection on homozygous effects more effective. However, population subdivision can increase the probability of competition among relatives, which may reduce the efficacy of selection. As a result, the response to selection can be either increased or decreased in a subdivided population relative to an undivided one, depending on the dominance coefficient FST and whether selection is hard or soft. Realistic levels of population structure tend to reduce the mean frequency of deleterious alleles. The mutation load tends to be decreased in a subdivided population for recessive alleles, as does the expected inbreeding depression. The magnitude of the effects of population subdivision tends to be greatest in species with hard selection rather than soft selection. Population structure can play an important role in determining the mean fitness of populations at equilibrium between mutation and selection.


Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Daryn Sagel ◽  
Kevin Speer ◽  
Scott Pokswinski ◽  
Bryan Quaife

Most wildland and prescribed fire spread occurs through ground fuels, and the rate of spread (RoS) in such environments is often summarized with empirical models that assume uniform environmental conditions and produce a unique RoS. On the other hand, representing the effects of local, small-scale variations of fuel and wind experienced in the field is challenging and, for landscape-scale models, impractical. Moreover, the level of uncertainty associated with characterizing RoS and flame dynamics in the presence of turbulent flow demonstrates the need for further understanding of fire dynamics at small scales in realistic settings. This work describes adapted computer vision techniques used to form fine-scale measurements of the spatially and temporally varying RoS in a natural setting. These algorithms are applied to infrared and visible images of a small-scale prescribed burn of a quasi-homogeneous pine needle bed under stationary wind conditions. A large number of distinct fire front displacements are then used statistically to analyze the fire spread. We find that the fine-scale forward RoS is characterized by an exponential distribution, suggesting a model for fire spread as a random process at this scale.


Koedoe ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kudakwashe Musengi ◽  
Sally Archibald

Alien invasive species can have negative impacts on the functioning of ecosystems. Plantation species such as pines have become serious invaders in many parts of the world, but eucalypts have not been nearly as successful invaders. This is surprising considering that in their native habitat they dominate almost all vegetation types. Available theory on the qualities that characterise invasive species was used to assess the invasive potential of Eucalyptus grandis – a common plantation species globally. To determine rates of establishment of E. grandis outside plantations, we compared population demographics and reproductive traits at two locations in Mpumalanga, South Africa: one at higher elevation with more frost. Eucalyptus grandis has a short generation time. We found no evidence that establishment of E. grandis was limiting its spread into native grassland vegetation, but it does appear that recruitment is limited by frost and fire over much of its range in Mpumalanga. Populations at both study locations displayed characteristics of good recruitment. Size class distributions showed definite bottlenecks to recruitment which were more severe when exposed to frost at higher elevations. Generally, the rate of spread is low suggesting that the populations are on the establishing populations’ invasion stage. This research gives no indication that there are any factors that would prevent eucalyptus from becoming invasive in the future, and the projected increase in winter temperatures should be a cause for concern as frost is currently probably slowing recruitment of E. grandis across much of its planted range.Conservation implications: Eucalyptus plantations occur within indigenous grasslands that are of high conservation value. Frost and fire can slow recruitment where they occur, but there are no obvious factors that would prevent E. grandis from becoming invasive in the future, and monitoring of its rates of spread is recommended.


1934 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. O. Pearson

SummaryRecords of stainer infestation in cotton have been taken at the Cotton Experiment Station, Barberton, South Africa, since 1931, and in 1933 a uniform system of recording stainer populations in cotton by sampling 10-acre blocks was extended to four farms in the Barberton district, three farms in Swaziland and the Cotton Experiment Station at Magut, Natal.The records so obtained show that stainers normally appear in plant cotton in late February or early March. D. intermedium, Dist., is present in comparatively small numbers throughout the season; D. nigrofasciatus, Stål, and D.fasciatus, Sign., are very variable in relative abundance. In 1933 the latter species was practically absent from cotton at all points save those in the vicinity of ratoon or standover cotton, but in 1931 and 1932 it appeared in numbers equal to those of D. nigrofasciatus and bred up a very much larger population in the crop.Where normal migration occurs, all three species of stainers pass through two and a partial third generation in the crop; at the end of the season part of the adults migrate from the crop and the remainder, together with the bulk of the nymphs, may be destroyed by appropriate clean-up measures.Extensive surveys of the Transvaal Low Veld and rapid tours of portions of Swaziland, Zululand and Portuguese East Africa, indicate that the principal wild food-plants of stainers in these regions comprise the genera Abutilon, Gossypium, Hibiscus and Sida in the Malvaceae, Melhania and Sterculia in the Sterculiaceae and Adansonia in the Bombaceae.The Malvaceous host plants and Melhania are all herbaceous or shrubby species and upon these D. nigrofasciatus is frequently found. It is possible that colonies of these plants existing in sheltered situations may provide overwintering grounds for this species.Two species of Sterculia are known, S. rogersii and S. murex. The former is wide-spread and abundant throughout the Low Veld and probably constitutes the main breeding-ground of all species in the early summer. The latter species is rarer, and its status as a food-plant is not yet fully investigated.The Baobab occurs in large numbers in the Northern Transvaal, but it has not yet been proved to be a winter food-plant. The latest information shows that during the summer it may commonly be infested with D. fasciatus.In conjunction with stainer population records in the crop, weekly systematic records of damage to the crop have been obtained from samples of bolls which have been examined for puncturing and graded for degree of staining. The number of punctures per boll and the percentage staining are strongly correlated, but it has proved difficult to correlate these with stainer population, except where young bolls are examined.Internal boll disease, particularly early in the season, may be due to bacterial organisms transmitted by species of Hemiptera other than stainers. Later in the season the infection of the crop is more definitely due to Nematospora spp., of which N. gossypii is commoner than N. coryli.All species of stainers collected on cotton have been found to transmit Nematospora, though they are not efficient vectors until the fourth instar is reached. Adult stainers collected on wild food-plants (Gossypium herbaceum var. africanum, Hibiscus spp., and Sterculia rogersii) have been shown to be infected with N. gossypii.The etiology of the disease produced by both species of Nematospora has been followed in inoculation experiments, using pure cultures. The rate of spread of the disease varies with the age of the boll at the time of inoculation, being slower when the boll has passed middle age. In neither species does staining extend beyond the foculus in which infection starts, nor does the fungus occur within the seed except lollowing direct puncturing of the seed.The fact that the staining is not co-extensive with the region occupied by the fungus, but goes far beyond it, and that a pathological condition indistinguishable from that due to the living organism may be produced by injecting a sterilised suspension of the fungus, suggests that the death of the lint hairs, producing staining, is due to a toxic substance liberated by the developing fungus.


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