scholarly journals Interpretable prediction of 3-year all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure caused by coronary heart disease based on machine learning and SHAP

2021 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 104813
Author(s):  
Ke Wang ◽  
Jing Tian ◽  
Chu Zheng ◽  
Hong Yang ◽  
Jia Ren ◽  
...  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 1589-1597
Author(s):  
Chen Liu ◽  
Yalin Cao ◽  
Xin He ◽  
Chongyu Zhang ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
...  

Aim: The protein CCN1/CYR61 exerts critical functions in myocardial ischemic injury. We sought to investigate the prognostic value of CCN1 in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and coronary heart disease (CAD). Methodology: We prospectively enrolled 113 patients with AHF and CAD. Patients were followed for all-cause mortality during a 30-day follow-up. Logistic models were used to estimate the association of CCN1 concentrations with 30-day mortality. Results: In multivariate logistic regression model, CCN1 was a significant predictor of 30-day mortality independent of current markers. Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment risk score was recommended as one of the selected multivariable risk scores to predict outcome in AHF. CCN1 improved risk stratification for all-cause mortality when added to the Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment risk scores at 30 days. Conclusion: We found CCN1 is independently associated with 30-day mortality in patients with AHF and CAD.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Liu ◽  
Yanxian Lai ◽  
Tianwang Guan ◽  
Qingchun Zeng ◽  
Jingxian Pei ◽  
...  

Objective: This retrospective, case–control study was executed to assess the effects of digoxin (DGX) use approaches [continuous use of DGX (cDGX) vs. intermittent use of DGX (iDGX)] on the long-term prognosis in rheumatic heart disease (RHD) patients with heart failure (HF).Methods: A total of 642 RHD patients were enrolled to this study after propensity matching. The associations of DGX application approaches with the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death (CVD), HF re-hospitalization (1-, 3-, and 5-year), and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) were analyzed by multivariate Cox proportional hazards or binary logistic regression models, respectively.Results: cDGX was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.27–2.65, P = 0.001) and CVD (adjusted HR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.29–3.83, P = 0.004) in RHD patients with HF compared to iDGX. With exception of 1-year HF re-hospitalization risk, cDGX was associated with increased HF re-hospitalization risk of 3-year (adjusted OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.03–2.29, P = 0.037) and 5-year (adjusted OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.05–2.50, P = 0.031) as well as new-onset AF (adjusted OR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.09–3.90, P = 0.027).Conclusion: cDGX was significantly associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, CVD, medium-/long-term HF re-hospitalization, and new-onset AF in RHD patients with HF.


Author(s):  
Sanne A.E. Peters ◽  
Lisandro D. Colantonio ◽  
Yuling Dai ◽  
Hong Zhao ◽  
Vera A. Bittner ◽  
...  

Background: Rates for recurrent coronary heart disease (CHD) events have declined in the US. However, few studies have assessed whether this decline has been similar among women and men. Methods: Data were used from 770,408 US women and 700,477 US men <65 years of age with commercial health insurance through MarketScan and ≥66 years of age with government health insurance through Medicare who had a myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalization between 2008 and 2017. Women and men were followed for recurrent MI, recurrent CHD events (i.e., recurrent MI or coronary revascularization), heart failure hospitalization, and all-cause mortality (Medicare only) in the 365 days post-MI. Results: From 2008 to 2017, age-standardized recurrent MI rates per 1,000 person-years decreased from 89.2 to 72.3 in women and from 94.2 to 81.3 in men (multivariable-adjusted p-interaction by sex<0.001). Recurrent CHD event rates decreased from 166.3 to 133.3 in women and from 198.1 to 176.8 in men (p-interaction<0.001). Heart failure hospitalization rates decreased from 177.4 to 158.1 in women and from 162.9 to 156.1 in men (p-interaction=0.001). All-cause mortality rates decreased from 403.2 to 389.5 in women and from 436.1 to 417.9 in men (p-interaction=0.82). In 2017, the multivariable-adjusted rate ratios (95%CI), comparing women with men were 0.90 (0.86, 0.93) for recurrent MI, 0.80 (0.78, 0.82) for recurrent CHD events, 0.99 (0.96, 1.01) for heart failure hospitalization, and 0.82 (0.80-0.83) for all-cause mortality. Conclusions: Rates of recurrent MI, recurrent CHD events, heart failure hospitalization, and mortality in the first year after an MI declined considerably between 2008 and 2017 in both men and women, with proportionally greater reductions for women than men. However, rates remain very high and rates of recurrent MI, recurrent CHD events and death continue to be higher among men than women.


Author(s):  
Yudong Peng ◽  
Kai Meng ◽  
Meian He ◽  
Ruirui Zhu ◽  
Hongquan Guan ◽  
...  

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) has developed into a global outbreak. Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) with COVID‐19 have different clinical characteristics and prognostic outcomes. This study aimed to summarize the clinical characteristics and laboratory indicators of patients with COVID‐19 with CVD, especially the critically ill patients. Methods and Results This study included 244 patients diagnosed with COVID‐19 and CVD (hypertension, coronary heart disease, or heart failure). The patients were categorized into critical (n=36) and noncritical (n=208) groups according to the interim guidance of China’s National Health Commission. Clinical, laboratory, and outcome data were collected from the patients’ medical records and compared between the 2 groups. The average body mass index of patients was significantly higher in the critical group than in the noncritical group. Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and C‐reactive protein, procalcitonin, and fibrinogen, and d ‐dimer levels at admission were significantly increased in the critical group. The all‐cause mortality rate among cases of COVID‐19 combined with CVD was 19.26%; the proportion of coronary heart disease and heart failure was significantly higher in deceased patients than in recovered patients. High body mass index, previous history of coronary heart disease, lactic acid accumulation, and a decrease in the partial pressure of oxygen were associated with death. Conclusions All‐cause mortality in patients with COVID‐19 with CVD in hospitals is high. The high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio may be a predictor of critical patients. Overweight/obesity combined with coronary heart disease, severe hypoxia, and lactic acid accumulation resulting from respiratory failure are related to poor outcomes. Registration URL: https://www.chictr.org.cn ; Unique identifier: ChiCTR2000029865.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Muslimova ◽  
T Rebrova ◽  
S Akhmedov ◽  
S Afanasiev

Abstract Introduction The sarcoplasmic reticulum of cardiomyocytes is the main Ca(2+) ion depot, the main functional proteins of which are Ca(2+)-ATPase SERCA2a, which re-traps ions from myoplasma, calsequestrin CASQ2, which binds most of Ca(2+), and ryanodine receptors RyR2 releasing Ca(2+) from the intracellular depot. A change in their functional activity can determine the progression of contractile myocardial dysfunction. The effectiveness of the Ca(2+)-transporting system and, consequently, the risk of development and progression of heart failure, may depend on the expression of the corresponding genes. Purpose To evaluate the association between the level of relative expression of the ATP2A2, CASQ2, RYR2 genes in the myocardium and the clinical parameters of heart failure in patients with coronary heart disease. Methods The study was carried out on the material of 90 patients with chronic heart failure developed on the background of coronary heart disease. Myocardial samples (a fragment of the right atrium appendage) obtained by connecting the cardiopulmonary bypass during planned coronary bypass surgery. The level of expression of the Ca(2+)-ATPase ATP2A2 gene, the ryanodine receptor RYR2 gene, and the calsequestrin CASQ2 gene was estimated. Samples were homogenized, RNA was isolated and cDNA was synthesized, and real-time PCR was performed. As reference, the glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase GAPDH gene, the beta-actin ACTB gene, and the 18S gene were used. The level of gene expression was calculated automatically using the software of the thermocycler. For the analysis of quantitative data, the Kruskel-Wallis test or the Mann-Whitney test was used. The analysis of the strength of the linear relationship was carried out using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. Results ATP2A2 gene expression was reduced in the myocardium of patients with left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (p=0.027 for ATP2A2/GAPDH, p=0.043 for ATP2A2/ACTB, p=0.039 for ATP2A2/18S). A correlation was observed between an increase in the functional class of heart failure (NYHA) and a decrease in the expression level of the RYR2/GAPDH gene (p=0.023). Among patients with heart failure, there was a weak negative linear relationship between the expression level of CASQ2/18S and the LV ejection fraction (r=−0.288, p=0.047). A significant (p=0.040) increase in CASQ2/ACTB gene expression was also found in patients with diastolic dysfunction compared to individuals without it, as well as a similar tendency for CASQ2/GAPDH (p=0.068) and CASQ2/18S (p=0.090). Conclusion In patients with heart failure due to coronary heart disease with LV hypertrophy, there was a decrease in the expression of the Ca (2+)-ATPase ATP2A2 gene. A decrease in the expression of the ryanodine receptor RYR2 gene was found as the heart failure class worsened. However, CASQ2 expression increased with diastolic dysfunction and a decrease in LV ejection fraction. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Russian Foundation for Basic Research


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