Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

Download Full-text

Co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling – case studies in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11432 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Borjana Bogatinoska ◽

Angelique Lansu ◽

Judith Floor ◽

Dave Huitema ◽

Stefan Dekker

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

The Uk ◽

Modelling Process

Climate adaptation of brook catchments is much needed in the studied regions of England, Belgium and the Netherlands. With the continuous rise of global temperatures and global change, these regions suffer from the impacts of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding. Extreme weather and climate change impacts are spatially non-uniform, uncertain and can have different strengths at local and regional level. Therefore, cities and regions need to adapt to climate change in an ambiguous way. Accordingly, there is no uniformity in the adaptive capacity of individuals, groups within society, organisations and governments or how they can respond to current and future climate change impacts.To better understand the interlinkages in nature-based climate adaptation between the socio-economic and climate change drivers, we studied these drivers in the hydrological modelling in 3 pilot studies in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. Focus is on how co-creation, defined as active participation is incorporated in the hydrological modelling process, (1) within each brook catchment and (2) between the professionals, as cross border knowledge transfer. Data on the co-creation process was collected with workshops on each of the semi-annual partner meetings of each catchment. Data on the modelling process was collected by semi-structured interviews of the professionals and by using assessment of professional learning in the network (field trips). Findings on co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling will be compared in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. In the end, existing co-creation processes will be joined to a framework for co-creation which can be improved and adapted based on the gathered data. This would include: identification of stakeholder groups and their needs, the level of intended participation, the identified climate problem by the stakeholders and by the policy-makers, the planned modelling approach, the NbS etc.Keywords: climate change, hydrology, nature-based solutions, stakeholders, climate adaptation, framework.

Download Full-text

Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2008gl033423 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 35 (8) ◽

Cited By ~ 90

Author(s):

C. Tebaldi ◽

D. B. Lobell

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Probabilistic Projections

Download Full-text

Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr016101 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 16 ◽

pp. 101-112 ◽

Cited By ~ 210

Author(s):

S Bergström ◽

B Carlsson ◽

M Gardelin ◽

G Lindström ◽

A Pettersson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Global Climate Models

Download Full-text

A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain

10.5194/hess-2021-321 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rosanna Lane ◽

Gemma Coxon ◽

Jim Freer ◽

Jan Seibert ◽

Thorsten Wagener

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Great Britain ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Annual Maximum ◽

Parameter Uncertainties ◽

High Flows ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Climate change may significantly increase flood risk across Great Britain (GB), but there are large uncertainties in both future climatic changes and how these propagate into changing river flows. Here, the impact of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of high flows is modelled for 346 larger (> 144 km2) catchments across GB using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and the DECIPHeR hydrological modelling framework. This study provides the first spatially consistent GB projections including both climate ensembles and hydrological model parameter uncertainties. Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows (Q10, Q1 and annual maximum) along the west coast of GB in the future (2050–2075), with increases in annual maximum flows of up to 65 % for west Scotland. In contrast, median flows (Q50) were projected to decrease across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties, and while the RCMs were the largest source of uncertainty overall, hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in east and south-east England. Regional variation in flow projections were found to relate to i) differences in climatic change and ii) catchment conditions during the baseline period as characterised by the runoff coefficient (mean discharge divided by mean precipitation). Importantly, increased heavy-precipitation events (defined by an increase in 99th percentile precipitation) did not always result in increased flood flows for catchments with low runoff coefficients, highlighting the varying factors leading to changes in high flows. These results provide a national overview of climate change impacts on high flows across GB, which will inform climate change adaptation, while also highlighting the need to account for uncertainty sources when modelling climate change impact on high flows.

Download Full-text

National scale assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in Finland

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.035 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 391 (3-4) ◽

pp. 333-350 ◽

Cited By ~ 105

Author(s):

Noora Veijalainen ◽

Eliisa Lotsari ◽

Petteri Alho ◽

Bertel Vehviläinen ◽

Jukka Käyhkö

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

National Scale ◽

Scale Assessment

Download Full-text

Climate change and water in the UK: Recent scientific evidence for past and future change

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133316679082 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 41 (2) ◽

pp. 154-170 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Grace Garner ◽

David M Hannah ◽

Glenn Watts

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Environment ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Physical Geography ◽

Future Change ◽

Groundwater Temperature ◽

River Flows ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

The Uk ◽

New Evidence

A changing climate is anticipated to alter hydroclimatological and hydroecological processes across the UK and around the world. This paper builds on a series of reports commissioned in 2012 (Water Climate Change Impacts Report Card [WCCRC], 2012) and published in a special issue of Progress in Physical Geography in 2015 that interpreted and synthesised the relevant, peer-reviewed scientific literature of climate change impacts on the UK’s water environment. It aims to provide reliable, clear information about the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water environment. We review new evidence since 2012 for historical and potential future changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, river flows and groundwater levels, river and groundwater temperature/quality and, finally, aquatic ecosystems. Some new evidence exists for change in most of these hydrological components, typically in support of the spatial and temporal trends reported in WCCRC 2012. However, it remains the case that more research has been conducted on rainfall and river flows than evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, river and groundwater temperature, water quality or freshwater ecosystems. Consequently, there remains a clear disparity of robust evidence for historical and potential future change between the top and bottom of the hydroclimatological–hydroecological process chain. As was the case in WCCRC 2012, this remains a significant barrier to informed climate change adaptation in these components of the water environment.

Download Full-text

Spatial Distribution and Sustainability Implications of the Canadian Groundwater Resources under Changing Climate

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13179778 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (17) ◽

pp. 9778

Author(s):

Ahmad Zeeshan Bhatti ◽

Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque ◽

Qing Li ◽

Farhat Abbas ◽

Bishnu Acharya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Newfoundland And Labrador ◽

Prince Edward Island ◽

Potable Water ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Water Source ◽

National Scale ◽

Rainfall Events ◽

Groundwater Availability

Groundwater availability, utilization, sustainability, and climate change implications were assessed at regional and provincial scales of Canada. It remains an unexplored resource, estimated to be renewing between 380 and 625 km3/year. However, the provinces have initiated developing their quantitative and qualitative databases for their accurate inventory. Sustainable groundwater availability at the national scale was estimated as 19,832 m3/person/year (750 km3/year), with high regional variations ranging from 3949 in the densely populated Prince Edward Island (PEI) province to 87,899 in the thinly populated Newfoundland and Labrador (NFL). It fulfills 82%, 43%, and 14% of water requirements of the rural population, irrigation, and industry, respectively. It is the potable water source for more than 9 million people countrywide (24% of the population), and provinces of Quebec, and Ontario (1.3 million people), and PEI (0.15 million people) particularly depend on it. It is mostly a free or nominally charged commodity, but its utilization was found to be well under sustainable limits (40% of recharge) at the provincial scales, i.e., under 4% for all the provinces except New Brunswick (NB), which also had just 8% extraction of sustainable availability. Nevertheless, localized issues of quantitative depletion and qualitative degradation were found at scattered places, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. Climate change impacts of warming and changing precipitations on groundwater underscored its stability with some temporal shifts in recharge patterns. In general, increased recharge in late winters and springs was observed due to reduced frost and more infiltration, and was somewhat decreasing in summers due to more intense rainfall events.

Download Full-text