Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula region: Spatio-temporal variability from ecological and climate change perspectives

The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading.

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Western Antarctic Peninsula physical oceanography and spatio–temporal variability

Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography ◽

10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.04.038 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 55 (18-19) ◽

pp. 1964-1987 ◽

Cited By ~ 203

Author(s):

Douglas G. Martinson ◽

Sharon E. Stammerjohn ◽

Richard A. Iannuzzi ◽

Raymond C. Smith ◽

Maria Vernet

Keyword(s):

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Temporal Variability ◽

Physical Oceanography ◽

Western Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Spatio Temporal

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Climate drives long-term change in Antarctic Silverfish along the western Antarctic Peninsula

10.21203/rs.3.rs-310839/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Corso ◽

Deborah Steinberg ◽

Sharon Stammerjohn ◽

Eric Hilton

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Environmental Variability ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Larval Abundance ◽

Western Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Amundsen Sea ◽

Antarctic Silverfish

Abstract Over the last half of the 20th century, the western Antarctic Peninsula has been one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, leading to substantial reductions in regional sea ice coverage. These changes are modulated by atmospheric forcing, including the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) pressure system. We utilized a novel 25-year (1993–2017) time series to model the effects of environmental variability on larvae of a keystone species, the Antarctic Silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica). Antarctic Silverfish use sea ice as spawning habitat and are important prey for penguins and other predators. We show that warmer sea surface temperature and decreased sea ice negatively impact larval abundance. Modulating both sea surface temperature and sea ice is ASL variability, where a strong ASL is associated with reduced larvae. These findings support a narrow sea ice and temperature tolerance for adult and larval fish. Further regional warming predicted to occur during the 21st century could displace fish populations, altering this pelagic ecosystem.

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Drivers of interannual variability in virioplankton abundance at the coastal western Antarctic peninsula and the potential effects of climate change

Environmental Microbiology ◽

10.1111/1462-2920.13627 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 740-755 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Claire Evans ◽

Joost Brandsma ◽

David W. Pond ◽

Hugh J. Venables ◽

Michael P. Meredith ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Western Antarctic Peninsula

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The Impact of Regional Climate Change on the Marine Ecosystem of the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic Ecosystems ◽

10.1002/9781444347241.ch4 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 91-120 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Andrew Clarke ◽

David K. A. Barnes ◽

Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽

Hugh W. Ducklow ◽

John C. King ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Marine Ecosystem ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

Western Antarctic Peninsula ◽

The Impact

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Using sea-ice to calibrate a dynamic trophic model for the Western Antarctic Peninsula

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0214814 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. e0214814 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Adrian Dahood ◽

George M. Watters ◽

Kim de Mutsert

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Western Antarctic Peninsula

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Ice-Core Evidence For Weddell Sea Ice Extent During The Past 200 Years

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0260305500009204 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 350

Author(s):

R. Mulvaney ◽

A.P. Reid ◽

D A. Peel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Seasonal Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Ice Core ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Storm Activity ◽

The Core

A continuous, detailed, 200-years record of the anionic species, chloride, nitrate and sulphate, has been measured on an ice core from Dolleman Island (70°35.2′ S, 60°55.5′ W), Antarctic Peninsula. The site lies on the east coast of the Peninsula, and the chemistry of the core is dominated by the changing pattern of sea-ice distribution and storm activity in the Wed dell Sea. Strong annual cycles in chloride and non sea salt sulphate reflect the dominance of the seasonal cycle in sea-ice distribution in the Weddell Sea, observed in time series derived from satellite imagery since the early 1970s. However, in the case of chloride there is also an exceptionally strong interannual variability, which in many parts of the core dominates the seasonal cycle. Secular variations in the sea-ice extent appear to have a strong influence on the climate of the region and may play a major role in determining how long-term climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula relates to global climate change. The paper examines documented evidence for sea-ice extent in the Weddell Sea sector, and evaluates the usefulness of ice-core data for reconstructing this parameter in the earlier period.

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Recent and near future climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11296 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Deniz Bozkurt ◽

David H. Bromwich ◽

Roberto Rondanelli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Domain Configuration ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

The Antarctic ◽

Near Future

<p>This study assesses the recent (1990-2015) and near future (2020-2045) climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. For the recent period, we make the use of available observations, ECMWF&#8217;s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as regional climate model simulations. Given the different climate characteristics at each side of the mountain barrier, we principally assess the results considering the windward and leeward sides. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1990-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~ 50 km) for further comparisons. For the near future climate change evaluation, we principally use historical simulations and climate change projections (until 2050s, RCP85) performed with PWRF (forced with NCAR-CESM1) on the same domain configuration of the hindcast simulations. Recent observed trends show contrasts between summer and autumn. Annual warming (cooling) trend is notable on the windward (leeward) coasts of the peninsula. Unlike the reanalysis, numerical simulations indicate a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling at annual time-scale. These temperature changes are accompanied by a decreasing and increasing trend in sea ice on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. An increasing trend of precipitation is notable on the central and northern peninsula. High resolution climate change projections (PWRF-15, RCP85) indicate that the recent warming trend on the windward coasts tends to continue in the near future (2020-2045) and the projections exhibit an increase in temperature by ~ 1.5&#176;C and 0.5&#176;C on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. In the same period, the projections show an increase in precipitation over the peninsula (5% to 10%). The more notable warming projected on the windward side causes more increases in surface melting (~ +20% to +80%) and more sea ice loss (-4% to -20%) on this side. Results show that the windward coasts of central and northern Antarctic Peninsula can be considered as "hotspots" with notable increases in temperature, surface melting and sea ice loss.</p>

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