Price discovery in CDS and equity markets: Default risk-based heterogeneity in the systematic investment grade and high yield sectors

2020 ◽  
pp. 100581
Author(s):  
William J. Procasky
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Investment Grade

How to estimate expected credit losses – ECL – for provisioning under IFRS 9

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Gubareva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Investment Grade

PurposeThis paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.FindingsThis study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.Research limitations/implicationsMany issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.Practical implicationsThe proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.Originality/valueNo previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.

US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

High Yield Bonds

2019 ◽  
pp. 599-620
Author(s):  
Byron C. Barnes ◽  
Tony Calenda ◽  
Elvis Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Credit Event

High yield bonds (HYBs) have become an integral part of the funding and investment landscape. HYBs are bonds rated below investment grade, indicating a potentially greater default risk and concomitant return. Although often associated with leveraged buyouts (LBOs), corporations also use HYBs to finance general corporate needs. The key drivers of HYB issuance include general economic activity, the number and size of transactions requiring financing, interest rates, and the availability of substitute financial products such as leveraged loans. Leveraged loans are another source of financing for issuers with a similar profile as HYB issuers. A key difference between HYBs and leveraged loans is that the covenants associated with a leveraged loan are typically more lender friendly. Similar to investment grade bonds, investors can purchase insurance to hedge a long HYB position against a credit event by using a credit default swap.

SEC permits abbreviated tender and exchange offers for non-convertible high-yield and investment-grade debt securities

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 28-29
Author(s):  
Ian B. Blumenstein ◽  
J. Eric Maki ◽  
John T. Owen
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Efficient Mechanism ◽  
Practical Guidance ◽  
Traditional Structures ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – To advise companies of a recent SEC no-action letter relating to tender and exchange offers for certain debt securities. Design/methodology/approach – Reviews various conditions allowing an issuer to use a shortened timeframe in which certain debt tender/exchange offers need be kept open for as few as five business days. Findings – The abbreviated debt tender/exchange offer structure contemplated by the no-action letter provides a more efficient mechanism for conducting debt tender/exchange offers in certain circumstances. Practical implications – Issuers conducting a debt tender/exchange offer should consider whether the new abbreviated structure is more effective in achieving their objectives than the more traditional structures. Originality/value – Practical guidance from experienced securities regulatory lawyers that gives an overview of important developments in debt tender/exchange offer practice.

scholarly journals EVENT RISK COVENANTS, DESIGN PARAMETERS AND AGENCY ISSUES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF HIGH YIELD VERSUS INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (0) ◽  
pp. 331-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manish Tewari
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Agency Cost ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Growth Options ◽  
Managerial Entrenchment ◽  
Event Risk ◽  
Call Protection ◽  
Investment Grade

We analyse security design parameters of 1,115 high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) event risk covenants (ERC) protected issues between 1986 and 2012 from the agency conflict perspective. We find positive and significant stock price reaction to the issuance of HY but not the IG issues. Although, majority of these issues carry a call provision, we find significant design differences in the call provision between HY and IG issues. We find that HY issues provide strong call protection to mitigate the risk of a call due to ratings upgrade, compromising firm’s financial flexibility; resulting financial distress is mitigated by the ERC. IG issues provide weak call protection to fully exploit growth options however, role of ERC is not apparent. We also find evidence of increase in managerial entrenchment due to the presence of ERC in HY firms however, reduction in agency cost of debt supersedes cost of managerial entrenchment.

Determinants of Corporate Bond Trading: A Comprehensive Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 1750003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edith Hotchkiss ◽  
Gergana Jostova
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Publicly Traded ◽  
Public Companies ◽  
Investment Grade

This paper studies the determinants of trading volume and liquidity of corporate bonds. Using transactions data from a comprehensive dataset of insurance company trades, our analysis covers more than 17,000 US corporate bonds of 4,151 companies over a five-year period prior to the introduction of TRACE. Our transactions data show that a variety of issue- and issuer-specific characteristics impact corporate bond liquidity. Among these, the most economically important determinants of bond trading volume are the bond’s issue size and age — trading volume declines substantially as bonds become seasoned and are absorbed into less active portfolios. Stock-level activity also impacts bond trading volume. Bonds of companies with publicly traded equity are more likely to trade than those with private equity. Further, public companies with more active stocks have more actively traded bonds. Finally, we show that while the liquidity of high-yield bonds is more affected by credit risk, interest-rate risk is more important in determining the liquidity of investment-grade bonds.

Predicting Currency Prices and Informational Efficiency:

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abidin Sazali ◽  
Azilawati Banchit ◽  
Yuewei Sun
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Var Analysis

This study examine the predictive power of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and the equity markets on currency exchange rate to determine whether the CDS is a better predictor as compared to the equity markets. Data sets used for the study include the Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) North American CDS indices, and iTraxx Europe index as a representative of the overall credit market conditions in Europe. The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index is included to see if CDS spread is more powerful information container than the bond market. The S&P500 index is used as controller for the effects of the US equity market and the Vanguard European Stock Index for Europe. ASX200 and NZ50 are chosen to represent the equity market conditions in Australia and New Zealand respectively. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between exchange rates and CDS index spreads. Granger causality test is conducted to determine the causal relationship between currency values and CDS spreads. Variance Decomposition or Forecast error variance decomposition is also used to complement the VAR analysis. The VAR analysis investigates that CDS can better capture the information in the market than other investment instruments such as bond. CDS thus may offer arbitrage opportunities for investors. In addition significant Grange-causality effects were found from IG and HY CDS spreads to currencies, which support the CDS spreads as a leading indicator of the several currencies versus US Dollar even in the financial crisis. The results of variance decomposition indicate that the contribution of the CDS market to the currency market is higher in Australian dollar, implying more carry-trades in the market.

Does CDS Premium Most Predict Sovereign Default Risk?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-530
Author(s):  
Ki Beom Binh ◽  
Seokjin Woo ◽  
Sang Min Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Spot Rate ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Dollar Spot ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper empirically analyzes the price discovery process between Korean sovereign CDS premium, spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar currency swap rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. With the global financial and fiscal crisis, especially in the U.S. and Euro-zone, the interests in sovereign default risk have risen. Interests in CDS, an OTC credit derivative contract based on debt issuer’s default risk, also have increased. A large number of presses have reported that CDS premium would be the best international market indicator for the default risk taken or transferred. However, internationally the CDS market liquidity has not been sufficient enough to validate its properties. Hence, based on empirics, this paper discusses whether Korean sovereign CDS premium can be considered as an appropriate indicator of sovereign credit risk in the Korean economy. Other largely accepted indices which contain the similar information about Korean economic fundamental and Korean external sovereign credit risk are also analyzed and compared: the spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar Currency Swap Rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. Our findings include: (a) in the price discovery process, Won-Dollar spot rate contributes to the price discovery especially most ‘during the financial crisis period’ and the ‘entire period’ (b) Within the period ‘after the financial crisis’, CDS premium and the other indices have mutual influences on the price discovery process higher than the period ‘before the financial crisis’ (c) while Won-Dollar forward rate shows the similar result with Won-Dollar spot rate, NDF rate and CDS premium make the largest mutual influence on price discovery in the period ‘before the financial crisis.’

Strategic Asset Allocation: The Role of Corporate Bond Indices?

2011 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 355-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonios Sangvinatsos
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Lower Grade ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Bond Indices ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Liquidity Premia ◽  
Investment Grade

This paper studies dynamic asset allocations across stocks, Treasury bonds, and corporate bond indices. We employ a new model where liquidity plays an important role in forecasting excess returns. We document the significant utility benefits an investor gains by optimally including corporate bond indices in his portfolio. The benefits are bigger for lower-grade bonds. We also find that investment-grade indices are different from high-yield indices in that different risks are priced in these two asset classes. One important difference is that there exist positive "flight-to-liquidity" premia in investment-grade bonds, but we find no such premia in high-yield bonds. We calculate the portfolio behavior and the utility benefits for three types of investors, the "sophisticated", the "average" and the "lazy" investor. We provide practical portfolio advice on investing throughout the business cycle and we study how the total allocations and hedging demands vary with the business conditions. In addition, utilizing our model, we evaluate the significance of the liquidity variable information for the investor. We find that the liquidity information greatly enhances the investor's portfolio performance. Finally, further support in the optimality of the strategies is provided by calculating their in- and out-of-sample realized returns for the last decade.

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