scholarly journals Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?

2022 ◽  
Vol 72 ◽  
pp. 102423
Author(s):  
Sophie P. de Bruin ◽  
Jannis M. Hoch ◽  
Nina von Uexkull ◽  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Jolle Demmers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Conflict Risk ◽  
Field Of Inquiry

scholarly journals Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: an underappreciated field of inquiry?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie de Bruin ◽  
Jannis Hoch ◽  
Nina von Uexkull ◽  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Jolle Demmers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Conflict Risk ◽  
Field Of Inquiry

The Second Start of Transformation in Ukraine?

2014 ◽  
pp. 30-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Grigoryev ◽  
E. Buryak ◽  
A. Golyashev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Governance Quality ◽  
Political Turmoil

The Ukrainian socio-economic crisis has been developing for years and resulted in the open socio-political turmoil and armed conflict. The Ukrainian population didn’t meet objectives of the post-Soviet transformation, and people were disillusioned for years, losing trust in the state and the Future. The role of workers’ remittances in the Ukrainian economy is underestimated, since the personal consumption and stability depend strongly on them. Social inequality, oligarchic control of key national assets contributed to instability as well as regional disparity, aggravated by identity differences. Economic growth is slow due to a long-term underinvestment, and prospects of improvement are dependent on some difficult institutional reforms, macro stability, open external markets and the elites’ consensus. Recovering after socio-economic and political crisis will need not merely time, but also governance quality improvement, institutions reform, the investment climate revival - that can be attributed as the second transformation in Ukraine.

The Fifty-Sixth Session of the International Law Commission

2005 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Matheson
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Diplomatic Protection ◽  
Sixth Session ◽  
International Liability ◽  
International Law Commission ◽  
Fragmentation Of International Law ◽  
Law Commission

The International Law Commission held its fifty-sixdi session in Geneva from May 3 to June 4, and from July 5 to August 6, 2004, under the chairmanship of Teodor Melescanu of Romania. The Commission completed its first reading of draft principles on international liability for transboundary harm and draft articles on diplomatic protection, which have now been submitted for comment by states with a view to their completion in 2006. The Commission also continued its work on reservations to treaties, responsibility of international organizations, unilateral acts of states, fragmentation of international law, and shared natural resources. In addition, the Commission decided to start work next year on the effect of armed conflict on treaties and the expulsion of aliens, and to recommend adding a new topic—the obligation to prosecute or extradite—to its long-term program. The following is a summary of where each topic stands and what issues are likely to be most prominent at the Commission's 2005 session.

Projecting conflict risk following the Shared Socioeconomic pathways: what role for water stress and climate?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie de Bruin ◽  
Jannis Hoch ◽  
Nina von Uexkull ◽  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Nico Wanders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
The Future ◽  
Conflict Risk

<p>The socioeconomic impacts of changes in climate-related and hydrology-related factors are increasingly acknowledged to affect the on-set of violent conflict. Full consensus upon the general mechanisms linking these factors with conflict is, however, still limited. The absence of full understanding of the non-linearities between all components and the lack of sufficient data make it therefore hard to address violent conflict risk on the long-term. </p><p>Although it is neither desirable nor feasible to make exact predictions, projections are a viable means to provide insights into potential future conflict risks and uncertainties thereof. Hence, making different projections is a legitimate way to deal with and understand these uncertainties, since the construction of diverse scenarios delivers insights into possible realizations of the future.  </p><p>Through machine learning techniques, we (re)assess the major drivers of conflict for the current situation in Africa, which are then applied to project the regions-at-risk following different scenarios. The model shows to accurately reproduce observed historic patterns leading to a high ROC score of 0.91. We show that socio-economic factors are most dominant when projecting conflicts over the African continent. The projections show that there is an overall reduction in conflict risk as a result of increased economic welfare that offsets the adverse impacts of climate change and hydrologic variables. It must be noted, however, that these projections are based on current relations. In case the relations of drivers and conflict change in the future, the resulting regions-at-risk may change too.   By identifying the most prominent drivers, conflict risk mitigation measures can be tuned more accurately to reduce the direct and indirect consequences of climate change on the population in Africa. As new and improved data becomes available, the model can be updated for more robust projections of conflict risk in Africa under climate change.</p>

scholarly journals The Long-Term Consequences of Civil War for Migration: The Case of Tajikistan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
District Level ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Peace Accord ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Household ◽  
Level I ◽  
And Migration

Armed conflict is socially transformative. Although migration research has established the proximate relationship between armed conflict and increases in migration, much less attention has been paid to the long-term, or distal relationship. This research leverages the case of the 1992-1997 Tajikistani Civil War to examine the distal relationship between armed conflict and migration decisions nearly a decade after the war had ended. Using a series of logistic regression models and a selection-based endogeneity correction, I estimate the likelihood of migrating in 2006, given the intensity of conflict experience at the district level. I find that, controlling for individual, household, and district-level indicators, the legacy of conflict continues to influence migration – for men and for ‘stayers’ – nearly a decade after the peace accord was signed. Some evidence suggests that certain kinds of development projects can moderate this relationship. In conflict-affected countries, incorporating the legacy of conflict into empirical research can help scholars and policy-makers better understand migration in the aftermath of war.

scholarly journals German Policy in the Eastern Baltic Sea in 1918: Expansion or Anti-Bolshevik Crusade?

Slavic Review ◽  
1973 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-357
Author(s):  
Holger H. Herwig
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
The West ◽  
Bolshevik Revolution ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Foreign Office ◽  
Military Victory ◽  
The Military ◽  
Clear Conception

The Bolshevik Revolution in November 1917 offered Germany the first serious prospect of ending the two-front war dilemma. General Erich Ludendorff, anticipating resultant cessation of major military operations in the East, decided to seek a military victory in the West. But the ensuing peace negotiations with the Bolsheviks at Brest-Litovsk revealed basic policy differences within the German camp. Richard Kühlmann, state secretary of the Foreign Office, felt that the Bolshevik victory had sufficiently crippled Russia's armed might and had thereby eased the military burden in the East. Kühlmann as well as his successor, Admiral Paul von Hintze, successfully opposed all proposals to oust the Bolsheviks. Because they both believed that Bolshevik rule would assure long-term chaos in Russia, they sought a compromise peace in the East. The Foreign Office, through the first German ambassadors to Moscow, Count Wilhelm von Mirbach-Harff and Karl Helfferich, even extended financial aid to the Bolsheviks in order to keep them out of the Entente camp. In short, Germany's diplomats possessed a clear conception of their policies regarding the Bolsheviks and were consistent in them, desiring no armed conflict in the East but rather a concentration of military might in the West. The Army Supreme Command, and especially Ludendorff, rejected any compromise formula in the East, despite the decision of November 1917 to seek a military victory in the West. Ludendorff sought to end the war with either victory or defeat. Nonetheless, in the summer of 1918 he proved willing temporarily to accept the plan of the Foreign Office to cooperate with the Bolsheviks and “use” them to attain German goals, a decision that paralleled his original agreement in April 1917 to transport the Bolshevik leaders in Switzerland to Russia.

scholarly journals Women in the Public Sphere and Religious Discourse Interpretation in the Post-Conflict Aceh

MAZAHIB ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Husni Mubarrak ◽  
Faisal Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Public Sphere ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Religious Discourse ◽  
The Public ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Literature Reviews ◽  
Discourse Interpretation ◽  
The Public Sphere

This article aims to discuss women and their access to the public sphere after a long term of the last three decades of armed conflict in Aceh. As many occurred in the other most conflict regions, women are mostly victims of any regime policies, either in political or economic access. This article would like to elaborate more on how women's position perceived within Acehnese society in the post-conflict Aceh since 2005? Furthermore, how are religious doctrines being interpreted regarding women’s issues in the post-conflict Aceh? By combining literature reviews and interviews as the primary source of data collection, this article argues that the long army conflict in Aceh and unfortunate Aceh's current political context are the leading cause of women's position degradation in Aceh and not because of the religious interpretation contestation. Thus, even though the formal sharia implementation has taken place in Aceh since 2002, male political domination and contestation have influenced women's position degradation in contemporary Aceh's public sphere.

scholarly journals The Effect of Conflict on Healthcare Workers in Syria: Results of a Qualitative Survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Abdelrahman ◽  
Rohini Haar
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Medical Professional ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Qualitative Survey ◽  
Hours Of Work ◽  
Negative Effect

The purpose of this study is to understand how the conflict in Syria, having devasted the healthcare system, has affected Syrian healthcare workers (Joseph et al. 2016). We provide a secondary analysis of a summer 2019 survey Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) conducted with 82 Syrian healthcare workers living in neighbouring countries as well as in northeast and northwest Syria. Our descriptive analysis found that 48 participants reported an average of 16.52 hours of work per day, and 40 participants reported caring for an average of 43 patients per day while working in Syria during the conflict. Sixty-eight participants reported facing barriers to perform their work, and 59 participants reported facing risks as a medical professional. Seventy-one participants experienced traumatic events during their work as a medical professional, and 70 participants experienced stress in the month prior to being interviewed. This analysis illustrates the negative effect an armed conflict has on healthcare workers through disruptions in their workload, training and resources, barriers and risks faced, and mental health and security issues. The study indicates that these factors require long-term consideration in order to protect healthcare workers and improve the health system.

scholarly journals NOWY KURS PREZYDENTA UKRAINY

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Ilnicki
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Western Ukraine ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Ukrainian Society ◽  
East West

The New Policy Adopted by Ukraine’s PresidentSummaryThis article discusses the changes in Ukrainian policy since the beginning of Petro Poroshenko’s presidency. Poroshenko, the winner ofUkraine’s presidential election of 25th May 2014, launched his campaign with the slogan “A New Lifestyle” – patently inspired by FranklinD. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The way the new President and government ofUkraine have been exercising power shows that they intend to pursuea long-term policy for the enhancement of the Ukrainian economy bymeans of neoliberal instruments, such as, for example, the privatisation of inefficiently managed state entities, the liberalisation of pricesand tariffs, a war on corruption, the implementation of decentralisingmeasures, the removal of administrative barriers, and support for medium and small businesses. The author observes a similarity betweenRoosevelt’s New Deal and Poroshenko’s New Lifestyle, particularly inthe latter’s endeavour to cope with a deep political and economic crisis.His efforts are being backed by the nation’s support, despite the inauspicious conditions. The author also notes that the armed conflict inEastern Ukraine is an additional factor aggravating efficient governmentand the implementation of reforms. There is a potential for a change inthe traditional rationale splitting Ukraine along an east—west divide,due to the fact that Poroshenko, who has the reputation of a moderate,won more votes in the traditionally nationalist Western Ukraine, thanin Eastern Ukraine, where his lead in the election over radical andnationalist candidates was substantially narrower. The author is of theopinion that this development offers a prospect for a reorientation inthe hitherto bipolar division in Ukrainian society. The biggest challenge facing Ukraine’s new President and government is political andfinancial decentralisation. The author draws a comparison betweenUkraine’s current situation and the French Republic, which is a unitary,centralised, and monocentric state. To stabilise the situation in Ukraine, Poroshenko will need to normalise the country’s relations with theRussian Federation, which in view of Russia’s annexation of Crimea andthe Russian military intervention in Eastern Ukraine, will call for a fargreater effort than what was expected of his predecessors.

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