Abstract
Background
Early identification of patients at risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) is desirable to prevent its development and complications. Clinical predictors have been recognized but need refinement to improve predictability. We evaluated whether severity of left atrial enlargement (LAE) added to a scoring system (CHA2DS2VASC) in an unselected non-AF population improves risk stratification for incident AF.
Purpose
To assess the incremental benefit of LAE severity added to CHA2DS2VASc in predicting future AF in non-AF patients.
Methods
From 2012–2017, consecutive adult patients with an echocardiogram and no prior AF were identified. CHA2DS2VASc was used to define baseline AF risk, and the incremental risk of AF with addition of LAE was assessed through increased LA volume index (LAVI; moderate 42–48 ml/m2, severe >48 ml/m2). To quantify improvement in risk prediction, logistic regression model was fitted and odds ratios (OR) and ROC curves obtained.
Results
Out of 155,597 patients with no prior AF, 13.8% developed AF over 1.5±1.3 years. OR for AF with CHA2DS2VASc was 1.68 (95% CI 1.66–1.69). With addition of moderately or severely increased LAVI to the model, OR for AF increased to 2.3 (2.2–2.5) and 3.8 (3.6–4.0), respectively. ROC analysis showed c-statistics of 0.66 with CHA2DS2VASc, 0.63 with LAVI, and 0.71 with incorporation of both (Fig).
AF CHAD score
Conclusion(s)
In non-AF patients, predictability for future AF can be improved by using clinical factors (CHA2DS2VASc) and increased LAVI. This information may guide closer monitoring and initiation of therapies to prevent progression to AF or stroke.
Acknowledgement/Funding
None
Risk factors for incident atrial fibrillation with and without left atrial enlargement in women
