Correspondence-driven plane-based M3C2 for lower uncertainty in 3D topographic change quantification

2022 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 541-559
Author(s):  
Vivien Zahs ◽  
Lukas Winiwarter ◽  
Katharina Anders ◽  
Jack G. Williams ◽  
Martin Rutzinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Uncertainty

scholarly journals SWAT Model Adaptability to a Small Mountainous Forested Watershed in Central Romania

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 860
Author(s):  
Nicu Constantin Tudose ◽  
Mirabela Marin ◽  
Sorin Cheval ◽  
Cezar Ungurean ◽  
Serban Octavian Davidescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Forested Watershed ◽  
Sensitive Parameters ◽  
Lower Uncertainty ◽  
Validation Stage ◽  
Water Assessment

This study aims to build and test the adaptability and reliability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model in a small mountain forested watershed. This ungauged watershed covers 184 km2 and supplies 90% of blue water for the Brașov metropolitan area, the second largest metropolitan area of Romania. After building a custom database at the forest management compartment level, the SWAT model was run. Further, using the SWAT-CUP software under the SUFI2 algorithm, we identified the most sensitive parameters required in the calibration and validation stage. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis revealed that the surface runoff is mainly influenced by soil, groundwater and vegetation condition parameters. The calibration was carried out for 2001‒2010, while the 1996‒1999 period was used for model validation. Both procedures have indicated satisfactory performance and a lower uncertainty of model results in replicating river discharge compared with observed discharge. This research demonstrates that the SWAT model can be applied in small ungauged watersheds after an appropriate parameterisation of its databases. Furthermore, this tool is appropriate to support decision-makers in conceiving sustainable watershed management. It also guides prioritising the most suitable measures to increase the river basin resilience and ensure the water demand under climate change.

scholarly journals Validation of a Method for Determining Cholesterol in Egg Yolks/ Walidacja metody oznaczania cholesterolu w żółtkach jaj

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Gąsior ◽  
Mariusz P. Pietras
Keyword(s):  
Sample Preparation ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Chromatographic Method ◽  
Internal Standard ◽  
Limit Of Quantification ◽  
Egg Yolks ◽  
Chromatographic Measurement ◽  
Preparation Errors ◽  
Gas Chromatographic Method ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Abstract The aim of the study was to validate a gas chromatographic method for determining cholesterol in egg yolks according to the EN ISO/IEC 17025 standard. Of the two methods, with and without internal standard, the former was characterized by lower uncertainty, with a repeatability of 4% and within-laboratory reproducibility of 6%. The method’s uncertainty (n = 2, P≤0.05), which included sample preparation errors and chromatographic measurement errors, was 10.6%. Mean recovery was 99.9% and limit of quantification was 0.16 mg/g. The coefficient of variation for repeatability, which is calculated during routine analyses, should not exceed the 8% limit of repeatability. The method is reliable, as confirmed by the results of validation, and the procedure is relatively rapid and simple.

Does prospectus information matter in IPO pricing?

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 514-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasidah Mohd-Rashid ◽  
Mansur Masih ◽  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim ◽  
Norliza Che-Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ipo Pricing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Offering ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify selected information from the prospectus that might signal the initial public offering (IPO) offer price. Design/methodology/approach This study uses cross-sectional data for a 14-year period from 2000 to 2014 in examining hypotheses relating to Shariah-compliant status, institutional investors, underwriter ranking and shareholder retention, with respect to their associations with the offer price of the IPOs. Further, this study uses ordinary least squares (OLS) for all models, including the models for both subsamples of Shariah- and non-Shariah-compliant IPOs. As for robustness, this study incorporates the quantile regression and quadratic model. Findings The results tend to provide support for the argument that firms with Shariah-compliant status reflect lower uncertainty and project better signalling of quality due to greater scrutiny by the government and thus are able to offer IPOs at higher prices. Similarly, firms with a higher proportion of shareholder retention indicate lower risks as insiders forego their options to diversify their portfolio, and hence could price their IPOs higher. Finally, the involvement of institutional investors and higher underwriter ranking could be used by firms to disregard information asymmetry, and therefore, the issuer might have to discount the IPO offer price. Research limitations/implications This study focuses solely on information in the prospectus that should not be disregarded by the investors in valuing the appropriateness of the IPO offer price. This study contributes in terms of providing a better understanding of the determinant factors of the IPO offer price of the firms which are Shariah-compliant. Originality/value This paper provides evidence for the determinants of the IPO offer price in a fixed pricing mechanism for both Shariah-and non-Shariah-compliant IPOs.

scholarly journals Random forest predictive model development with uncertainty analysis capability for the estimation of evapotranspiration in an arid oasis region

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 648-665
Author(s):  
Min Wu ◽  
Qi Feng ◽  
Xiaohu Wen ◽  
Ravinesh C. Deo ◽  
Zhenliang Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Oasis Area ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Abstract The study evaluates the potential utility of the random forest (RF) predictive model used to simulate daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in two stations located in the arid oasis area of northwestern China. To construct an accurate RF-based predictive model, ET0 is estimated by an appropriate combination of model inputs comprising maximum air temperature (Tmax), minimum air temperature (Tmin), sunshine durations (Sun), wind speed (U2), and relative humidity (Rh). The output of RF models are tested by ET0 calculated using Penman–Monteith FAO 56 (PMF-56) equation. Results showed that the RF model was considered as a better way to predict ET0 for the arid oasis area with limited data. Besides, Rh was the most influential factor on the behavior of ET0, except for air temperature in the proposed arid area. Moreover, the uncertainty analysis with a Monte Carlo method was carried out to verify the reliability of the results, and it was concluded that RF model had a lower uncertainty and can be used successfully in simulating ET0. The proposed study shows RF as a sound modeling approach for the prediction of ET0 in the arid areas where reliable weather data sets are available, but relatively limited.

Evidence and Uncertainty in Subjective Prediction: Influences on Optimistic Judgment

1993 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 435-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendy Reece ◽  
Leroy Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Academic Performance ◽  
Positive Bias ◽  
Negative Evidence ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Average Performance ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Student’S Performance ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Lower Uncertainty ◽  
High Uncertainty

40 subjects were required to predict the future academic performance of 62 hypothetical students. Each student's performance was represented as a unique arrangement of above average and below average performance for 2, 3, 4, or 5 successively preceding semesters. Following each prediction, subjects were asked to rate how confident they were in their prediction. High confidence was associated with sequences of performance having lower uncertainty, but overestimation of future performance was associated with sequences having high uncertainty. The results were interpreted as supporting a conclusion that there is a positive bias in retrieving similar instances of evidence from memory to bear upon a decision and that the exclusion or reduction of available negative evidence leads to overestimation of future outcomes.

Theory of Uncertainty Analysis With Application to Naval Hydrodynamics (Keynote Paper)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel T. Park
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Verification And Validation ◽  
Random Loading ◽  
Keynote Paper ◽  
History Of ◽  
Force Calibration ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Abstract The modern methodology for quantifying the quality of experimental data is uncertainty analysis. This paper is a review of current methods with some examples primarily from naval hydrodynamics. The methods described are applicable to fluids engineering. The paper discusses the history of uncertainty analysis, US and international standards on uncertainty analysis, verification and validation standards for computational fluid dynamics, and instrument calibration. One important result is that random loading in force calibration can produce a lower uncertainty estimate than sequential loading.

Strategic Investment under Incomplete Information

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad H. Dehghani
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
The Other ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Symmetric Equilibrium ◽  
Sunk Cost ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
First Case ◽  
Investment Cost ◽  
Lower Uncertainty ◽  
First Mover

Abstract This paper studies how hiding sunk cost of investment would affect investment strategies in a duopoly. The investment would improve profit. If this improvement is larger for the first mover than the second mover, this study finds a unique symmetric equilibrium for a subset of such cases. On the other hand, a larger improvement for the second mover results in a class of symmetric equilibria. For the first case, the surplus to sharing information increases with higher volatility of profit flow and lower uncertainty about the investment cost. For the second case, this surplus grows with both mentioned types of uncertainty.

The politics of creditworthiness: political and policy commentary in sovereign credit rating reports

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Zsófia Barta ◽  
Kristin Makszin
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Sovereign Credit Ratings ◽  
Standard And Poor's ◽  
Common Notion ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Abstract How much do politics and politically sensitive policy choices matter for sovereign credit ratings? We contend that while policy is consistently important for rating decisions, attention to politics varies with perceived uncertainty. Quantitatively analysing the text of 635 sovereign rating reports issued by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) between 1999 and 2012 for 40 European countries, we find that S&P scrutinises policy with similar intensity across countries, but political scrutiny was less intense in developed countries and prospective European Union members (categories formerly associated with lower uncertainty) than in emerging countries until the crisis dispelled illusions of lower uncertainty in these categories. Our findings nuance the common notion that financial market actors allow countries perceived to belong to low-risk categories more “room-to-move” in their political and policy choices, by showing that in rating decisions such permissiveness only applied to politics – but not to policy – and it ended with the global financial crisis.

Theory of Uncertainty Analysis with Application to Naval Hydrodynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel T. Park
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Experimental Data ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Verification And Validation ◽  
Random Loading ◽  
History Of ◽  
Force Calibration ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Abstract The modern methodology for quantifying the quality of experimental data is uncertainty analysis. Current methods are reviewed with some examples primarily from naval hydrodynamics. The methods described are applicable to fluids engineering. The history of uncertainty analysis, US and international standards on uncertainty analysis, verification and validation standards for computational fluid dynamics, and instrument calibration are discussed. One important result is that random loading in force calibration can produce a lower uncertainty estimate than sequential loading. Statistically, the calibration results for the slope and intercept are the same for the two methods in the example thrust calibration, but the uncertainty in random loading is factor of three smaller than sequential loading.

scholarly journals Evaluation of two precipitation data sets for the Rhine River using streamflow simulations

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 3355-3366 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Photiadou ◽  
A. H. Weerts ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Extended Version ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Temporal Correlations ◽  
Lower Uncertainty

Abstract. This paper presents an extended version of a widely used precipitation data set and evaluates it along with a recently released precipitation data set, using streamflow simulations. First, the existing precipitation data set issued by the Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR), originally covering the period 1961–1995, was extended until 2008 using a number of additional precipitation data sets. Next, the extended version of the CHR, together with E-OBS Version 4 (ECA & D gridded data set) were evaluated for their performance in the Rhine basin for extreme events. Finally, the two aforementioned precipitation data sets and a meteorological reanalysis data set were used to force a hydrological model, evaluating the influence of different precipitation forcings on the annual mean and extreme discharges compared to observational discharges for the period from 1990 until 2008. The extended version of CHR showed good agreement in terms of mean annual cycle, extreme discharge (both high and low flows), and spatial distribution of correlations with observed discharge. E-OBS performed well with respect to extreme discharge. However, its performance of the mean annual cycle in winter was rather poor and remarkably well in the summer. Also, CHR08 outperformed E-OBS in terms of temporal correlations in most of the analyzed sub-catchment means. The length extension for the CHR and the even longer length of E-OBS permit the assessment of extreme discharge and precipitation values with lower uncertainty for longer return periods. This assessment classifies both of the presented precipitation data sets as possible reference data sets for future studies in hydrological applications.

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