scholarly journals An efficient causative event-based approach for deriving the annual flood frequency distribution

2014 ◽  
Vol 510 ◽  
pp. 412-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Li ◽  
Mark Thyer ◽  
Martin Lambert ◽  
George Kuczera ◽  
Andrew Metcalfe
2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 4381-4389 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
A. Castellarin ◽  
A. Viglione ◽  
S. Kohnová ◽  
T. R. Kjeldsen

Abstract. This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale. A new database of L-moment ratios of flood annual maximum series (AMS) from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national data sets. Simple exploration of the database presents the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the three-parameter statistical model that with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios. Additional Monte Carlo simulations show that the variability in terms of sample skewness and kurtosis present in the data is larger than in a hypothetical scenario where all the samples were drawn from a GEV model. Overall, the generalized extreme value distribution fails to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for the longer sample lengths and medium to high skewness values, and therefore may be rejected in a statistical hypothesis testing framework as a single pan-European parent distribution for annual flood maxima. The results presented in this paper suggest that one single statistical model may not be able to fit the entire variety of flood processes present at a European scale, and presents an opportunity to further investigate the catchment and climatic factors controlling European flood regimes and their effects on the underlying flood frequency distributions.


2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gaume

Abstract. This paper presents some analytical results and numerical illustrations on the asymptotic properties of flood peak distributions obtained through derived flood frequency approaches. It confirms and extends the results of previous works: i.e. the shape of the flood peak distributions are asymptotically controlled by the rainfall statistical properties, given limited and reasonable assumptions concerning the rainfall-runoff process. This result is partial so far: the impact of the rainfall spatial heterogeneity has not been studied for instance. From a practical point of view, it provides a general framework for analysis of the outcomes of previous works based on derived flood frequency approaches and leads to some proposals for the estimation of very large return-period flood quantiles. This paper, focussed on asymptotic distribution properties, does not propose any new approach for the extrapolation of flood frequency distribution to estimate intermediate return period flood quantiles. Nevertheless, the large distance between frequent flood peak values and the asymptotic values as well as the simulations conducted in this paper help quantifying the ill condition of the problem of flood frequency distribution extrapolation: it illustrates how large the range of possibilities for the shapes of flood peak distributions is.


1997 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 2103-2107 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Kurothe ◽  
N. K. Goel ◽  
B. S. Mathur

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1931
Author(s):  
Alvaro Sordo-Ward ◽  
Ivan Gabriel-Martín ◽  
Paola Bianucci ◽  
Giuseppe Mascaro ◽  
Enrique R. Vivoni ◽  
...  

This study proposes a methodology that combines the advantages of the event-based and continuous models, for the derivation of the maximum flow and maximum hydrograph volume frequency curves, by combining a stochastic continuous weather generator (the advanced weather generator, abbreviated as AWE-GEN) with a fully distributed physically based hydrological model (the TIN-based real-time integrated basin simulator, abbreviated as tRIBS) that runs both event-based and continuous simulation. The methodology is applied to Peacheater Creek, a 64 km2 basin located in Oklahoma, United States. First, a continuous set of 5000 years’ hourly weather forcing series is generated using the stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN. Second, a hydrological continuous simulation of 50 years of the climate series is generated with the hydrological model tRIBS. Simultaneously, the separation of storm events is performed by applying the exponential method to the 5000- and 50-years climate series. From the continuous simulation of 50 years, the mean soil moisture in the top 10 cm (MSM10) of the soil layer of the basin at an hourly time step is extracted. Afterwards, from the times series of hourly MSM10, the values associated to all the storm events within the 50 years of hourly weather series are extracted. Therefore, each storm event has an initial soil moisture value associated (MSM10Event). Thus, the probability distribution of MSM10Event for each month of the year is obtained. Third, the five major events of each of the 5000 years in terms of total depth are simulated in an event-based framework in tRIBS, assigning an initial moisture state value for the basin using a Monte Carlo framework. Finally, the maximum annual hydrographs are obtained in terms of maximum peak-flow and volume, and the associated frequency curves are derived. To validate the method, the results obtained by the hybrid method are compared to those obtained by deriving the flood frequency curves from the continuous simulation of 5000 years, analyzing the maximum annual peak-flow and maximum annual volume, and the dependence between the peak-flow and volume. Independence between rainfall events and prior hydrological soil moisture conditions has been proved. The proposed hybrid method can reproduce the univariate flood frequency curves with a good agreement to those obtained by the continuous simulation. The maximum annual peak-flow frequency curve is obtained with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.98, whereas the maximum annual volume frequency curve is obtained with a Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.97. The proposed hybrid method permits to generate hydrological forcing by using a fully distributed physically based model but reducing the computation times on the order from months to hours.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Bartens ◽  
Uwe Haberlandt

Abstract. In many cases flood frequency analysis needs to be carried out on mean daily flow (MDF) series without any available information on the instantaneous peak flow (IPF). We analyze the error of using MDFs instead of IPFs for flood quantile estimation on a German dataset and assess spatial patterns and factors that influence the deviation of MDF floods from their IPF counterparts. The main dependence could be found for catchment area but also gauge elevation appeared to have some influence. Based on the findings we propose simple linear models to correct both MDF flood peaks of individual flood events and overall MDF flood statistics. Key predictor in the models is the event-based ratio of flood peak and flood volume obtained directly from the daily flow records. This correction approach requires a minimum of data input, is easily applied, valid for the entire study area and successfully estimates IPF peaks and flood statistics. The models perform particularly well in smaller catchments, where other IPF estimation methods fall short. Still, the limit of the approach is reached for catchment sizes below 100 km2, where the hydrograph information from the daily series is no longer capable of approximating instantaneous flood dynamics.


10.29007/bjr1 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Balistrocchi ◽  
Roberto Ranzi ◽  
Stefano Orlandini ◽  
Baldassare Bacchi

Flood control reservoirs are widely recognized as effective structural practices in order to mitigate the flood risk in natural watersheds. Nevertheless, the flood frequency distribution in the downstream reach is strongly affected by a certain number of characteristics of the upstream flood hydrographs. When a direct statistical method is utilized, a multivariate approach should therefore be utilized to accurately assess reservoir performances. In this paper, a flood frequency distribution of the routed flow discharge is derived from a bivariate joint distribution function of peak flow discharges and flood volumes of hydrographs entering the reservoir. Such a joint distribution is constructed by using the copula approach. Reservoir performances are also exploited to categorize event severity and to estimate their bivariate return periods. The method is applied to a real-world case study (Sant’Anna reservoir, Panaro River, northern Italy), and its reliability is verified through continuous simulations. Bearing in mind the popularity that design event methods still have in practical engineering, a final evaluation of the performance assessment achievable by simulations of synthetic hydrographs derived from a flood reduction curve is finally proposed.


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 6321-6358 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
A. Castellarin ◽  
S. Kohnová ◽  
T. R. Kjeldsen

Abstract. This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale and aims to better understand the effect of catchment scale and climate on the statistical properties of regional flood frequency distributions. A new database of L-moment ratios of annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national datasets. Using this database and additional Monte Carlo simulations, the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution appears as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the 3-parameter statistical model with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios, but failing to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for high skewness values. A more detailed investigation performed on a subset of the database (Austria, Italy and Slovakia, involving a total of 813 catchments with more than 25 yr of record length) confirms that the GEV distribution provides a better representation of the averaged sample L-moment ratios compared to the other distributions considered, for catchments with medium to high values of mean annual precipitation (MAP) independently of catchment area, while the 3-parameter Lognormal distribution is probably a more appropriate choice for dry (low MAP) intermediate-sized catchments, which presented higher skewness values. Sample L-moment ratios do not follow systematically any of the theoretical 2-parameter distributions. In particular, the averaged values of L-coefficient of skewness (L-Cs) are always larger than Gumbel's fixed L-Cs. The results presented in this paper contribute to progress towards the definition of a set of pan-European flood frequency distributions and to assess possible effects of environmental change on its properties.


2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 729-744
Author(s):  
Sina Hesarkazzazi ◽  
Rezgar Arabzadeh ◽  
Mohsen Hajibabaei ◽  
Wolfgang Rauch ◽  
Thomas R. Kjeldsen ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document