scholarly journals Flood Routing Efficiency Assessment: an Approach Using Bivariate Copulas

10.29007/bjr1 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Balistrocchi ◽  
Roberto Ranzi ◽  
Stefano Orlandini ◽  
Baldassare Bacchi
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
Copula Approach ◽  
Practical Engineering ◽  
Downstream Reach ◽  
Natural Watersheds

Flood control reservoirs are widely recognized as effective structural practices in order to mitigate the flood risk in natural watersheds. Nevertheless, the flood frequency distribution in the downstream reach is strongly affected by a certain number of characteristics of the upstream flood hydrographs. When a direct statistical method is utilized, a multivariate approach should therefore be utilized to accurately assess reservoir performances. In this paper, a flood frequency distribution of the routed flow discharge is derived from a bivariate joint distribution function of peak flow discharges and flood volumes of hydrographs entering the reservoir. Such a joint distribution is constructed by using the copula approach. Reservoir performances are also exploited to categorize event severity and to estimate their bivariate return periods. The method is applied to a real-world case study (Sant’Anna reservoir, Panaro River, northern Italy), and its reliability is verified through continuous simulations. Bearing in mind the popularity that design event methods still have in practical engineering, a final evaluation of the performance assessment achievable by simulations of synthetic hydrographs derived from a flood reduction curve is finally proposed.

scholarly journals Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent?

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 4381-4389 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
A. Castellarin ◽  
A. Viglione ◽  
S. Kohnová ◽  
T. R. Kjeldsen
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Statistical Hypothesis ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario

Abstract. This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale. A new database of L-moment ratios of flood annual maximum series (AMS) from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national data sets. Simple exploration of the database presents the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the three-parameter statistical model that with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios. Additional Monte Carlo simulations show that the variability in terms of sample skewness and kurtosis present in the data is larger than in a hypothetical scenario where all the samples were drawn from a GEV model. Overall, the generalized extreme value distribution fails to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for the longer sample lengths and medium to high skewness values, and therefore may be rejected in a statistical hypothesis testing framework as a single pan-European parent distribution for annual flood maxima. The results presented in this paper suggest that one single statistical model may not be able to fit the entire variety of flood processes present at a European scale, and presents an opportunity to further investigate the catchment and climatic factors controlling European flood regimes and their effects on the underlying flood frequency distributions.

scholarly journals On the asymptotic behavior of flood peak distributions

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gaume
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Flood Quantiles ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper presents some analytical results and numerical illustrations on the asymptotic properties of flood peak distributions obtained through derived flood frequency approaches. It confirms and extends the results of previous works: i.e. the shape of the flood peak distributions are asymptotically controlled by the rainfall statistical properties, given limited and reasonable assumptions concerning the rainfall-runoff process. This result is partial so far: the impact of the rainfall spatial heterogeneity has not been studied for instance. From a practical point of view, it provides a general framework for analysis of the outcomes of previous works based on derived flood frequency approaches and leads to some proposals for the estimation of very large return-period flood quantiles. This paper, focussed on asymptotic distribution properties, does not propose any new approach for the extrapolation of flood frequency distribution to estimate intermediate return period flood quantiles. Nevertheless, the large distance between frequent flood peak values and the asymptotic values as well as the simulations conducted in this paper help quantifying the ill condition of the problem of flood frequency distribution extrapolation: it illustrates how large the range of possibilities for the shapes of flood peak distributions is.

scholarly journals Flood Routing Process and High Dam Interception of Natural Discharge from the 2018 Baige Landslide-Dammed Lake

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin-Rui Gan ◽  
Xing-Guo Yang ◽  
Hai-Mei Liao ◽  
Jia-Wen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Arch Dam ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Hydraulic Calculation ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
High Dams

The outburst flood of the Baige landslide dam caused tremendous damage to infrastructure, unfinished hydraulic buildings, roads, and bridges that were built or under construction along the Jinsha River. Can downstream hydraulic buildings, such as high dams with flood control and discharge function, accommodate outburst floods or generate more serious losses due to wave overtopping? In this study, the unsteady flow of a one-dimensional hydraulic calculation was used to simulate natural flood discharge. Assuming a high dam (Yebatan arch dam) is constructed downstream, the flood processes were carried out in two forms of high dam interception (complete interception, comprehensive flood control of blocking and draining). Moreover, three-dimensional visualization of the inundation area was performed. Simulation results indicate that the Yebatan Hydropower Station can completely eliminate the outburst flood risk even under the most dangerous situations. This station can reduce the flood peak and delay the peak flood arrival time. Specifically, the flood peak decreased more obviously when it was closer to the upstream area, and the flood peak arrival time was more delayed when the flood spread further downstream. In addition, the downstream water depth was reduced by approximately 10 m, and the inundation area was reduced to half of the natural discharge. This phenomenon shows that hydraulic buildings such as high dams can reduce the inundation area of downstream farmlands and extend the evacuation time for downstream residents during the flood process, thus reducing the loss of life and property.

scholarly journals On age difference in joint lifetime modelling with life insurance annuity applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 350-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Dufresne ◽  
Enkelejd Hashorva ◽  
Gildas Ratovomirija ◽  
Youssouf Toukourou
Keyword(s):  
Life Insurance ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Married Couple ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Age Difference ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
The Past ◽  
Copula Approach ◽  
Using Data

AbstractInsurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a group of people are independent. However, extensive research over the past decades suggests otherwise. In this paper, a copula approach is used to model the dependence between lifetimes within a married couple using data from a large Canadian insurance company. As a novelty, the age difference and the gender of the elder partner are introduced as an argument of the dependence parameter. Maximum likelihood techniques are thus implemented for the parameter estimation. Not only do the results make clear that the correlation decreases with age difference, but also the dependence between the lifetimes is higher when husband is older than wife. A goodness-of-fit procedure is applied in order to assess the validity of the model. Finally, considering several annuity products available on the life insurance market, the paper concludes with practical illustrations.

scholarly journals An efficient causative event-based approach for deriving the annual flood frequency distribution

2014 ◽  
Vol 510 ◽  
pp. 412-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Li ◽  
Mark Thyer ◽  
Martin Lambert ◽  
George Kuczera ◽  
Andrew Metcalfe
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Event Based

scholarly journals Derived flood frequency distribution for negatively correlated rainfall intensity and duration

1997 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 2103-2107 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Kurothe ◽  
N. K. Goel ◽  
B. S. Mathur
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Flood Frequency

scholarly journals Analysis of Sedimentation for The Optimization of Lempake Dam Operations for Flood Control for The City of Samarinda, Province of East Kalimantan

2021 ◽  
Vol 004 (01) ◽  
pp. 010-021
Author(s):  
Sandi Erryanto ◽  
Ussy Andawayanti ◽  
Ery Suhartanto
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Raw Water ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
East Kalimantan ◽  
Safe Limit ◽  
Normal Water ◽  
The City ◽  
Mapping Program

The Lempake Dam currently functions as a dam that provides raw water for irrigation and clean water, besides its indirect functioning as the only flood control dam in the Karangmumus sub-watershed. Current conditions indicate that the Lempake Reservoir has experienced decreased capacity from year to year. At the normal water level, the reservoir capacity of Lempake Reservoir in 2013 was 0.76 million m3 and in 2018 was 0.39 million m3. Therefore, efforts are needed to control reservoir sedimentation and reservoir operations to allow the Lempake Dam to continue to function as a flood control reservoir. This study was carried out by analyzing the volume of sedimentation in the reservoir using the ArcGIS program and analyzing the flood hydrograph at the site by flood routing at the Pasar Segiri River, optimizing reservoir operations, and mapping flood inundation using the RAS Mapping program (HEC-RAS). The results showed that the storage volume in 2020 is predicted to be 0.241 million m3 with an annual sediment rate of 0.074 million m3. From the flood routing analysis and optimization of reservoir operations, the cross-sectional capacity of the river in Pasar Segiri (safe limit elevation +3.30 m) is insufficient for a flood discharge of a return period of more than 2 years (more than 222.14 m3/sec) for Scenario 1, and of more than 5 years (more than 320.48 m3/sec) for Scenario 2

scholarly journals Parent Flood Frequency Distribution of Turkish Rivers

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 529-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Levend Asikoglu
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Flood Frequency

scholarly journals On the quest for a pan-European flood frequency distribution: effect of scale and climate

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 6321-6358 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
A. Castellarin ◽  
S. Kohnová ◽  
T. R. Kjeldsen
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Gev Distribution ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Coefficient Of Skewness ◽  
Annual Maximum Series

Abstract. This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale and aims to better understand the effect of catchment scale and climate on the statistical properties of regional flood frequency distributions. A new database of L-moment ratios of annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national datasets. Using this database and additional Monte Carlo simulations, the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution appears as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the 3-parameter statistical model with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios, but failing to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for high skewness values. A more detailed investigation performed on a subset of the database (Austria, Italy and Slovakia, involving a total of 813 catchments with more than 25 yr of record length) confirms that the GEV distribution provides a better representation of the averaged sample L-moment ratios compared to the other distributions considered, for catchments with medium to high values of mean annual precipitation (MAP) independently of catchment area, while the 3-parameter Lognormal distribution is probably a more appropriate choice for dry (low MAP) intermediate-sized catchments, which presented higher skewness values. Sample L-moment ratios do not follow systematically any of the theoretical 2-parameter distributions. In particular, the averaged values of L-coefficient of skewness (L-Cs) are always larger than Gumbel's fixed L-Cs. The results presented in this paper contribute to progress towards the definition of a set of pan-European flood frequency distributions and to assess possible effects of environmental change on its properties.

scholarly journals Derivation of a curve number and kinematic-wave based flood frequency distribution

2001 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 571-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. KUROTHE ◽  
N. K. GOEL ◽  
B. S. MATHUR
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Kinematic Wave
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