scholarly journals Developing a system dynamics model to study the impact of renewable energy in the short- and long-term energy security

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirennesh Nair ◽  
Saleh Shadman ◽  
Christina M.M. Chin ◽  
Novita Sakundarini ◽  
Eng Hwa Yap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Online Stores’ Sales: Positive and Negative E-WOM and Promotion Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 6045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Yan ◽  
Simin Zhou ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Ye Li
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Real Data ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Interaction Diagram ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we build a causal interaction diagram between the factors that may influence the sales and profits of online stores. An online store’s real operation data were used to help determine the causal relationship between variables. Finally, we proposed a system dynamics model and conducted a simulation of the operation of an online store. In this model, we focused on the impact of promotion and positive/negative electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) on the sales and profits of the online stores. The simulation results showed a similar trend to the real data and the main research finding showed that promotion is not a long-term measure for the sustainable development of online stores. Excessive promotion effort may lead to consumers’ dissatisfaction leading the increase of negative e-WOM. The systematic simulation can help us understand better the long-term effect of promotion and e-WOM on the operation of online stores. Finally, we gave some management suggestions for online stores’ sustainable operations.

scholarly journals Examining budget policies for new and existing facilities: a system dynamics approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 511-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roozbeh Rashedi ◽  
Tarek Hegazy
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Budget Allocation ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Impact

Sustaining acceptable service in large facility networks is a complex task, particularly under limited budgets, rapid deterioration, and increasing service demands. Policy-makers are, therefore, challenged to make efficient balance between the construction of new facilities and the renewal of existing ones to suit both the short and the long-term needs. To support policy-makers, this paper proposes an efficient decision support system using the system dynamics simulation technique to analyze the impact of various budget allocation policies and to optimize policy decisions. The proposed system dynamics model was tested using a case study from the Toronto District School Board involving more than 400 schools. It can find the optimum budgeting strategy that minimizes the overall facility condition index and total life cycle cost over a long-term strategic plan. The system dynamics model proved its ability to find a budget allocation policy with much better results than the typical enrolment-based approach.

Simulation and Prediction of Excellent Students Based on System Dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 713-715 ◽  
pp. 1914-1917
Author(s):  
Pei Qin Qi ◽  
Yong Feng Chen
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Article Analysis ◽  
The Impact

This article analysis the fundamental reasons of the universities recruiting excellent students from the perspective of systems engineering and establish a system dynamics model. Using vensim analysis the impact of recruiting , cultivating excellent students and the loss of them on the total amount of excellent students. While Long-term state of the system is predicted. Through comparing the two programs that the initial cultivation degree and recruiting efficiency are respectively as independent variables and the total amount of excellent students as dependent variable it can provide a reference for the system of university recruiting.

scholarly journals Transforming a Liability into an Asset: A System Dynamics Model for Free-Ranging Dog Population Management

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Urmila Basu Mallick ◽  
Marja H. Bakermans ◽  
Khalid Saeed
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Social Integration ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Innovative Strategies ◽  
Management Context ◽  
Free Ranging ◽  
Social Rewards

Using Indian free-ranging dogs (FRD) as a case study, we propose a novel intervention of social integration alongside previously proposed methods for dealing with FRD populations. Our study subsumes population dynamics, funding avenues, and innovative strategies to maintain FRD welfare and provide societal benefits. We develop a comprehensive system dynamics model, featuring identifiable parameters customizable for any management context and imperative for successfully planning a widescale FRD population intervention. We examine policy resistance and simulate conventional interventions alongside the proposed social integration effort to compare monetary and social rewards, as well as costs and unintended consequences. For challenging socioeconomic ecological contexts, policy resistance is best overcome by shifting priority strategically between social integration and conventional techniques. The results suggest that social integration can financially support a long-term FRD intervention, while transforming a “pest” population into a resource for animal-assisted health interventions, law enforcement, and conservation efforts.

Coupling of Power and Heating Sector – Opportunity for Heating Sector Development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Armands Grāvelsiņš
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
System Development ◽  
Heating System ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Energy Share

European Union has set ambitious decarbonization goals under Green Deal, therefore, Latvia needs to search for solutions on how to move towards reaching the said goals. Although renewable energy share in Latvia is one of the highest among the European Union countries, it is mostly due to historic heritage, not as the result of implementing meaningful policies. Essential high renewable energy share in power sector comes from three large hydroelectric stations on Daugava, which is heritage from the Soviet Union times. Steady increase in renewable energy share can be observed in District Heating, however it is based on increased utilization of biomass, and that most likely is not a sustainable solution. Considering that bioeconomy will experience significant growth in the future, utilization of wood resource for production of products with low added value will steadily phase out. For energy sector it means the necessity to look for other alternatives to replace fossil fuels. If in other European countries (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, et al.) solar and wind technology capacity have significantly increased over last decade, in Latvia this increase is negligible. Only in the last few years significant increase in installed solar capacities can be observed, but total capacity is still low. Latvia needs to seek solutions on how to increase the introduction rate of renewable energy technologies in order to move towards carbon neutrality in 2050. The aim of the Thesis is to develop a comprehensive system dynamics model which can be used to analyze energy sector at both national and local scale. It should include both heating and power sectors and be able to evaluate the possibility of sector coupling and its influence on the total system. Specific objectives are set to reach the aim: to develop a system dynamics model structure for heating system development; to analyze the heating system at local and national scale; to assess the importance of power sector flexibility on system development; to implement the elements of sector coupling in energy system; to analyze sector coupling as a flexibility increase measure for national scale and local systems.

scholarly journals An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Pasqualino ◽  
Irene Monasterolo ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

scholarly journals A generic system dynamics model for simulating and evaluating the hydrological performance of reconstructed watersheds

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 865-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Keshta ◽  
A. Elshorbagy ◽  
S. Carey
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Absolute Relative Error ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Natural Watersheds ◽  
Generic System

Abstract. A generic system dynamics watershed (GSDW) model is developed and applied to five reconstructed watersheds located in the Athabasca mining basin, Alberta, Canada, and one natural watershed (boreal forest) located in Saskatchewan, Canada, to simulate various hydrological processes in reconstructed and natural watersheds. This paper uses the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute relative error (MARE), and the correlation coefficient (R) as the main performance indicators, in addition to the visual comparison. For the South Bison Hills (SBH), South West Sand Storage (SWSS) and Old Aspen (OA) simulated soil moisture, the RMSE values ranges between 2.5–4.8 mm, and the MARE ranges from 7% to 18%, except for the D2-cover it was 26% for the validation year. The R statistics ranges from 0.3 to 0.77 during the validation period. The error between the measured and simulated cumulative actual evapotranspiration (AET) flux for the SWSS, SBH, and the OA sites were 2%, 5%, and 8%, respectively. The developed GSDW model enables the investigation of the utility of different soil cover designs and evaluation of their performance. The model is capable of capturing the dynamics of water balance components, and may used to conduct short- and long- term predictions under different climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Germany’s Position Concerning the Nord Stream-2 Pipeline in the Context of the European Union’s Energy Security

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-127
Author(s):  
Mykola Stetsiuk
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the underlying foundations of Germany’s position regarding the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as well as the impact of this position on the European Union’s joint energy policy and energy security. Against the backdrop of the constantly growing energy consumption both globally and in EU specifically, supplies of energy sources are being increasingly used by exporters as an instrument of political influence. In this context, the Nord Stream-2 pipeline is regarded as such an instrument, primarily by Russia itself. On the other hand, Germany has been supporting the construction of the new Russian pipeline due to the need to ensure uninterrupted supply of cheap natural gas. The latter is of particular significance for the realization of Germany’s long-term energy transformation strategy. However, by sticking to such a position, Germany prioritizes its own political and economic interests over those of EU and individual Member States, which is contrary to one of the main principles of EU’s functioning, i.e., the principle of solidarity. With this in mind, it is reasonable to conclude that Germany is almost single-handedly defining the strategic direction of the entire EU’s energy policy without paying due attention to alternative suppliers and sources.

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