Long-term and medium-term scenarios and factors in world energy perspectives for the 21st century

Abstract Tourist services represent a category of services in which the inseparability of production and consumption, the inability to be storable, the immateriality, and last but not least non-durability, induces in tourism management a number of peculiarities and difficulties. Under these circumstances the development of medium-term strategies involves long-term studies regarding on the one hand the developments and characteristics of the demand, and on the other hand the tourist potential analysis at regional and local level. Although in the past 20 years there has been tremendous growth of on-line booking made by household users, the tour operators agencies as well as those with sales activity continue to offer the specific services for a large number of tourists, that number, in the case of domestic tourism, increased by 1.6 times in case of the tour operators and by 4.44 times in case of the agencies with sales activity. At the same time, there have been changes in the preferences of tourists regarding their holiday destinations in Romania. Started on these considerations, paper based on a logistic model, examines the evolution of the probabilities and scores corresponding to the way the Romanian tourists spend their holidays on the types of tourism agencies, actions and tourist areas in Romania.

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The Challenge of Educating Purposeful Teachers in Finland

Education Sciences ◽

10.3390/educsci11010029 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 29

Author(s):

Elina Kuusisto ◽

Kirsi Tirri

Keyword(s):

Teacher Education ◽

Student Teachers ◽

21St Century ◽

School Community ◽

The Self ◽

Moral Commitment ◽

Mediating Factor

This article discusses the challenges of educating teachers in Finland. As a goal in teacher education for the 21st century we propose the purposeful teacher, referring to a teacher who has a long-term moral commitment to serve students, the school community and society. Our data collected from student (N = 912) and practising (N = 77) teachers yielded information on the purposes they identified as important in their lives. The survey included quantitative instruments and open- ended questions. The teachers identified happiness, relationships, work and self-actualisation as the most important contents of their aspirations. All the content categories could be understood as potential purposes in that the benefit extended beyond the teachers themselves. However, almost half of the student teachers (46%) and over half of teachers (55%) revealed only self-orientation. Less than half of them (43%, 36%, respectively) showed a beyond-the-self orientation, which is indicative of a purposeful teacher. Among the practising teachers, teaching appeared to be mainly a mediating factor in realising their purposes or aspirations. These results have implications related to contemporary teacher education in Finland. Both pre- and in-service teachers need to know about purposeful teaching in order to find meaning in their work.

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Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a perspective from industry

European Heart Journal Supplements ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/suaa187 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (Supplement_P) ◽

pp. P56-P59

Author(s):

Nick E J West ◽

Wai-Fung Cheong ◽

Els Boone ◽

Neil E Moat

Keyword(s):

Care Delivery ◽

Models Of Care ◽

Medium Term ◽

Change Models ◽

New Device ◽

Supply Chain Logistics ◽

Cardiovascular Patients ◽

Medical Crisis ◽

Device Industry

Abstract The global COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented change throughout society.1 As the articles in this supplement outline, all segments of the broader cardiovascular community have been forced to adapt, to change models of care delivery, and to evolve and innovate in order to deliver optimal management for cardiovascular patients. The medtech/device industry has not been exempt from such change and has been forced to navigate direct and indirect COVID-associated disruption, with effects felt from supply chain logistics to the entire product lifecycle, from the running of clinical trials to new device approvals and managing training, proctoring and congresses in an increasingly-online world. This sea-change in circumstances itself has enforced the industry, in effect, to disrupt its own processes, models and activities. Whilst some of these changes may be temporary, many will endure for some time and some will doubtless become permanent; one thing is for sure: the healthcare ecosystem, including the medical device industry, will never look quite the same again. Although the pandemic has brought a short- to medium-term medical crisis to many countries, its role as a powerful disruptor cannot be underestimated, and may indeed prove to be a force for long-term good, given the accelerated innovation and rapid adaptation that it has cultivated.

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Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections

Water ◽

10.3390/w13020167 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 167

Author(s):

Norman Dreier ◽

Edgar Nehlsen ◽

Peter Fröhle ◽

Diana Rechid ◽

Laurens M. Bouwer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Wind Wave ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Hybrid Approach ◽

Wave Modelling ◽

Long Term Changes ◽

Mean Wave Period ◽

Wave Conditions ◽

Sea Coast

In this study, the projected future long-term changes of the local wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast over the course of the 21st century are analyzed and assessed with special focus on model agreement, statistical significance and ranges/spread of the results. An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data. The outstanding feature of the simulations is that the data are available with a high horizontal resolution and at hourly timesteps which is a high temporal resolution and beneficial for the wind–wave modelling. A new data interface between RCM output data and wind–wave modelling has been developed. Suitable spatial aggregation methods of the RCM wind data have been tested and used to generate input for the calculation of waves at quasi deep-water conditions and at a mean water level with a hybrid approach that enables the fast compilation of future long-term time series of significant wave height, mean wave period and direction for an ensemble of RCM data. Changes of the average wind and wave conditions have been found, with a majority of the changes occurring for the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and at the end of the 21st century. At westerly wind-exposed locations mainly increasing values of the wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period have been noted. In contrast, at easterly wind-exposed locations, decreasing values are predominant. Regarding the changes of the mean wind and wave directions, westerly directions becoming more frequent. Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data.

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Long-Term Data Traffic Forecasting for Network Dimensioning in LTE with Short Time Series

Electronics ◽

10.3390/electronics10101151 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 1151

Author(s):

Carolina Gijón ◽

Matías Toril ◽

Salvador Luna-Ramírez ◽

María Luisa Marí-Altozano ◽

José María Ruiz-Avilés

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Deep Learning ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Data Traffic ◽

Medium Term ◽

Short Term ◽

Traffic Forecasting ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Radio Planning

Network dimensioning is a critical task in current mobile networks, as any failure in this process leads to degraded user experience or unnecessary upgrades of network resources. For this purpose, radio planning tools often predict monthly busy-hour data traffic to detect capacity bottlenecks in advance. Supervised Learning (SL) arises as a promising solution to improve predictions obtained with legacy approaches. Previous works have shown that deep learning outperforms classical time series analysis when predicting data traffic in cellular networks in the short term (seconds/minutes) and medium term (hours/days) from long historical data series. However, long-term forecasting (several months horizon) performed in radio planning tools relies on short and noisy time series, thus requiring a separate analysis. In this work, we present the first study comparing SL and time series analysis approaches to predict monthly busy-hour data traffic on a cell basis in a live LTE network. To this end, an extensive dataset is collected, comprising data traffic per cell for a whole country during 30 months. The considered methods include Random Forest, different Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Additive Holt–Winters. Results show that SL models outperform time series approaches, while reducing data storage capacity requirements. More importantly, unlike in short-term and medium-term traffic forecasting, non-deep SL approaches are competitive with deep learning while being more computationally efficient.

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Cuboid nutcracker fracture in a 9-year-old child

BMJ Case Reports ◽

10.1136/bcr-2020-240441 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. e240441

Author(s):

Tannous Jorge Sassine ◽

Bernardo Barcellos Terra ◽

Vincenzo Giordano ◽

Benno Ejnisman

Keyword(s):

Direct Reduction ◽

Treatment Options ◽

Compression Fracture ◽

Medium Term ◽

Lateral Column ◽

Cuboid Bone ◽

Long Term Follow Up ◽

Type Of Fracture

A 9-year-old girl presented to the emergency department reporting intense pain and inability to bear weight on her left foot after a classmate tripped over it. Imaging studies confirmed a fracture of the cuboid bone due to compression of the lateral column of the foot (also known as nutcracker fracture). The patient was treated surgically, with direct reduction of the compression fracture and definitive fixation with two Kirschner wires. Cuboid nutcracker fracture is rare in children and adolescents, and potential consequences can occur if it is not correctly diagnosed and adequately managed. Literature on this type of fracture is scarce, along with information on treatment options and results over medium-term and long-term follow-up. We describe this case and review the literature on this particular topic.

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The Policy Capacity of Bureaucracy

10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1399 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sharma Shubham ◽

Lei Shi ◽

Xun Wu

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Policy Decision ◽

Active Role ◽

Organizational Level ◽

Everyday Functioning ◽

Global Issues ◽

Policy Problem ◽

Policy Capacity ◽

The Individual

Bureaucracy is one of the oldest institutions of a government system. Its role and importance have grown immensely in modern government systems. Bureaucrats or public administrators are indispensable in the policy decision making process in the 21st century. From the early conception as a branch of government responsible for the implementation of policy decisions and everyday functioning, bureaucracy has assumed a more active role in the policymaking process. It has gone through many reforms; however, these reforms have been largely incremental and static. While the external environment or the problems faced by bureaucracy is continuously evolving, the change in bureaucracy has not been in the same proportion. In the 21st century, many issues confronting bureaucracy are not only wicked but also global in nature. Moreover, challenges posed by technological disruptions and long-term processes such as climate change put bureaucracy at all levels of a government in a far trickier position than their earlier envisaged basic functions. In dealing with such challenges, the policy capacity of bureaucracy cannot be taken for granted. There are often significant gaps in capacity to anticipate a policy problem, to ensure coordination and preserve legitimacy, to translate global issues at local levels, and to learn from the past. It is crucial to strengthen analytical capacity at the individual and organizational level, operational capacity at the organizational level, and political capacity at the systems level to address these gaps. Tackling capacity gaps systematically would enable bureaucracy to design and implement policy and administrative reforms with a long-term vision of adaptation and evolution instead of merely in reactive mode. The policy capacity framework presented in this article is useful in identifying the capacity gaps that inhibit bureaucracy from evolving and the remedies to address these gaps.

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Total hip arthroplasty through an anterior approach

EFORT Open Reviews ◽

10.1302/2058-5241.3.180023 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (11) ◽

pp. 574-583 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Georgios Kyriakopoulos ◽

Lazaros Poultsides ◽

Panayiotis Christofilopoulos

Keyword(s):

Total Hip Arthroplasty ◽

Length Of Stay ◽

Hip Arthroplasty ◽

Anterior Approach ◽

Formal Training ◽

Long Term Outcomes ◽

Medium Term ◽

Total Hip

Total hip arthroplasty through an anterior approach has been increasing in popularity amongst surgeons and patients. Anterior approach hip arthroplasty seems to offer improved early outcomes in terms of pain, rehabilitation and length of stay. No difference in long-term outcomes has been shown between anterior and posterior or lateral approaches. Proper formal training, utilization of fluoroscopy and adequate experience can mitigate risks of complications and improve early and medium-term outcomes. Cite this article: EFORT Open Rev 2018;3:574-583. DOI: 10.1302/2058-5241.3.180023.

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Sampling estuarine copepods at different scales and resolutions: a study in Rio de la Plata

Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom ◽

10.1017/s002531541800108x ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 99 (5) ◽

pp. 1059-1064 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sourav Paul ◽

Danilo Calliari

Keyword(s):

Sampling Effort ◽

Rio De La Plata ◽

Population Densities ◽

Medium Term ◽

Short Term ◽

Río De La Plata ◽

La Plata ◽

Resource Limitations ◽

Paracalanus Parvus

AbstractIn the Rio de la Plata salinity, temperature, chlorophyll a (chl a), and densities (ind. m−3) of the copepods Acartia tonsa and Paracalanus parvus were measured from January to November in 2003 by following a nested weekly and monthly design. Such sampling yielded two separate datasets: (i) Yearly Dataset (YD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per month for 11 consecutive months, and (ii) Seasonal Weekly Datasets (SWD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per week of any four consecutive weeks within each season. YD was assumed as a medium-term low-resolution (MTLR) dataset, and SWD as a short-term high-resolution (STHR) dataset. The hypothesis was, the SWD would always capture (shorter scales generally captures more noise in data) more detail variability of copepod populations (quantified through the regression relationships between temporal changes of salinity, temperature, chl a and copepod densities) than the YD. Analysis of both YD and SWD found that A. tonsa density was neither affected by seasonal cycles, nor temporal variability of salinity, temperature and chl a. Thus, compared to STHR sampling, MTLR sampling did not yield any further information of the variability of population densities of the perennial copepod A. tonsa. Analysis of SWD found that during summer and autumn the population densities of P. parvus had a significant positive relationship to salinity but their density was limited by higher chl a concentration; analysis of YD could not yield such detailed ecological information. That hints the effectiveness of STHR sampling over MTLR sampling in capturing details of the variability of population densities of a seasonal copepod species. Considering the institutional resource limitations (e.g. lack of long-term funding, manpower and infrastructure) and the present hypothesis under consideration, the authors suggest that a STHR sampling may provide useful complementary information to interpret results of longer-term natural changes occurring in estuaries.

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