The impact of climate change scenarios on droughts and their propagation in an arid Mediterranean basin. A useful approach for planning adaptation strategies

2022 ◽  
pp. 153128
Author(s):  
Juan-de-Dios Gomez-Gomez ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
Francisca Fernandez-Chacon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
pp. 2013-2023 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. YU ◽  
P. DALE ◽  
L. TURNER ◽  
S. TONG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ross River Virus ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Methodological Challenges ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYRoss River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

scholarly journals Diversification or specialisation? Farmers' cropping strategy and economic performance under climate change in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingze Wu ◽  
Yueji Zhu ◽  
Qi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Technical Efficiency ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Farmers' adaptation strategies in agricultural production are required to minimise the negative impact of climate change on a nation's food production in developing countries. Based on the panel data of the provincial level in China from 2000 to 2017, this study aims to analyse the changing climate over recent years and farmers' adaptation strategy in terms of cropping in agricultural production. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Simpson's diversity index (SDI) to measure the degree of crop diversity planted by farmers and evaluate the influence of climate change on farmers' cropping strategy using the fixed-effect model. Further, the authors estimate the impact of farmers' cropping strategy on their economic performances in two aspects including yields and technical efficiency of crops. Findings The empirical results show that the overall climate appears a warming trend. Different from farmers in some other countries, Chinese farmers tend to adopt a more specialised cropping strategy which can significantly improve the technical efficiency and yields of crops in agriculture. In addition, as a moderating role, the specialised cropping can help farmers to alleviate the negative impact of climate change on technical efficiency of their crops. Originality/value First, previous studies showed that the changing climate influenced farmers' adaptation strategies, while most studies focussed on multiple adaptation strategies from the farm-level perspective rather than cropping strategy from the nation-level perspective. Second, the present study investigates how the cropping strategy affects the economic performance (in terms of the technical efficiency and crop yields) of agricultural production. Third, the stochastic frontier analysis method is used to estimate the technical efficiency. Fourth, this study explores the moderating effect between farmers' cropping strategy and technical efficiency by introducing an interaction item of SDI and accumulated temperature.

scholarly journals ADAPTASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM KOMUNITAS DESA: STUDI KASUS DI KAWASAN PESISIR UTARA PULAU AMBON

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subair ◽  
Lala M. Kolopaking ◽  
Soeryo Adiwibowo ◽  
M. Bambang Pranowo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Focus Group ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Fishing Ground ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Tolerance Interval ◽  
Fishing Community ◽  
Sociological Study ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menganalisis strategi adaptasi komunitas nelayan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim. Lokasi penelitian di desa nelayan Asilulu, ditetapkan secara purposive mewakili karakteristik desa pesisir di kawasan pantai utara pulau Ambon Maluku. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode kasus historis sebuah metode studi sosiologi yang memadukan dua pendekatan yaitu sosiologi sejarah dan sejarah sosiologis. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan metode hermeunetik dan dialektika dalam waktu kurang lebih 2 tahun (April 2010 Juni 2012) menggunakan teknik pengamatan berperan serta, focus group discussion, wawancara mendalam, dan studi pustaka. Penelitian menunjukkan hasil bahwa komunitas nelayan di desa Asilulu telah merasakan dampak dari perubahan iklim yang menekan sistem penghidupan mereka meliputi kenaikan permukaan laut, intensitas badai dan gelombang tinggi, perubahan fishing ground dan kekacauan musim tangkap. Kerentanan komunitas dikategorikan tingkat sedang dan karenanya masih dalam area coping range komunitas. Nelayan melakukan adaptasi proaktif dan reaktif dalam strategi adaptasi fisik, sosial-ekonomi, dan sumber daya manusia yang sejauh ini mampu meningkatkan lebar selang toleransi sehingga kerentanan dapat dikurangi dan resiliensi sistem meningkat. Kondisi ini membuat komunitas nelayan cukup resilien.The purpose of this study is to identify the adaptation strategies of a fishing community to respond the impact of climate change. Location of the study in the fishing village Asilulu, determined purposively to represent the characteristics of the coastal villages in the north coast of the island of Ambon Maluku. The method used is the method of historical case a sociological study method that combines two approaches, historical sociology and sociological history. Data collected between April 2010-June 2012, using the technique of participant observation, focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and literature. Research shows that the fishing community in the village Asilulu have felt the impact of climate change which suppress their livelihood systems include sea level rise, storm intensity and high waves, changes in fishing grounds and fishing seasons chaos. Community vulnerability and therefore categorized as being still in the area of community coping range. Fishermen proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation strategies in physical, socio-economic, and human resources are so far able to increase the width of the tolerance interval so that vulnerabilities can be reduced and the resilience of the system increases.

scholarly journals Coupling Remote Sensing and Hydrological Model for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow in Data-Scarce Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 14025
Author(s):  
Fazlullah Akhtar ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Christian Borgemeister ◽  
Bernhard Tischbein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dams ◽  
E. Salvadore ◽  
T. Van Daele ◽  
V. Ntegeka ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared with the reference period 1960–1991, a change in annual groundwater recharge between −20% and +7%. On average annual groundwater recharge decreases 7%. In most scenarios the recharge increases during winter but decreases during summer. The altered recharge patterns cause the groundwater level to decrease significantly from September to January. On average the groundwater level decreases about 7 cm with a standard deviation between the scenarios of 5 cm. Groundwater levels in interfluves and upstream areas are more sensitive to climate change than groundwater levels in the river valley. Groundwater discharge to GWDTEs is expected to decrease during late summer and autumn as much as 10%, though the discharge remains at reference-period level during winter and early spring. As GWDTEs are strongly influenced by temporal dynamics of the groundwater system, close monitoring of groundwater and implementation of adaptive management measures are required to prevent ecological loss.

Participatory Evaluation of Effectiveness of Farmer-Led Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Eastern Uttar Pradesh

2022 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-150
Author(s):  
Preeti Yadav ◽  
Sanjit Maiti ◽  
S. K. Jha ◽  
H. R. Meena ◽  
Mukesh Bhakat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Flow ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Crop Fields ◽  
High Yielding Varieties ◽  
Eastern Uttar Pradesh ◽  
The Impact

India has shown high vulnerability towards the impact of climate change due to thedependency of 58 per cent of India’s population on agriculture. The study was carried on180 respondents in three districts selected randomly of eastern Uttar Pradesh to evaluatefarmer-led adaptation strategies to the impact of climate change, activities that arepredominantly led by farmers to make them more adaptable to long-term changes in weatherpatterns. All the respondents had experienced extreme climatic events in the last 5-10 years,making the region climate-prone. Nine farmers’-led adaptation strategies to climate changefollowed in crop farming were documented and quantified by using Climate ChangeAdaptation Index. Adaptation strategies were evaluated using the Quantification ofIndigenous Knowledge method (QuIK) method; by involving the key informants followedby peer farmers. Crop diversification, use of high yielding varieties of crops andpreparations of bunds to control water flow were the most preferred adaptation strategiesto climate change. The irregular rainfall increased the incidence of floods in eastern UttarPradesh; thus, the preparation of bunds to regulate water flow in crop fields was the mostefficient adaptation strategy.

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