Sliding window approach with first-order differencing for very short-term solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning models

2022 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 101864
Author(s):  
Ankit Bhatt ◽  
Weerakorn Ongsakul ◽  
Nimal Madhu M. ◽  
Jai Govind Singh
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Sliding Window ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
First Order ◽  
Window Approach

scholarly journals An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3020
Author(s):  
Anam-Nawaz Khan ◽  
Naeem Iqbal ◽  
Atif Rizwan ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Do-Hyeun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Floor Level ◽  
Consumption Data

Due to the availability of smart metering infrastructure, high-resolution electric consumption data is readily available to study the dynamics of residential electric consumption at finely resolved spatial and temporal scales. Analyzing the electric consumption data enables the policymakers and building owners to understand consumer’s demand-consumption behaviors. Furthermore, analysis and accurate forecasting of electric consumption are substantial for consumer involvement in time-of-use tariffs, critical peak pricing, and consumer-specific demand response initiatives. Alongside its vast economic and sustainability implications, such as energy wastage and decarbonization of the energy sector, accurate consumption forecasting facilitates power system planning and stable grid operations. Energy consumption forecasting is an active research area; despite the abundance of devised models, electric consumption forecasting in residential buildings remains challenging due to high occupant energy use behavior variability. Hence the search for an appropriate model for accurate electric consumption forecasting is ever continuing. To this aim, this paper presents a spatial and temporal ensemble forecasting model for short-term electric consumption forecasting. The proposed work involves exploring electric consumption profiles at the apartment level through cluster analysis based on the k-means algorithm. The ensemble forecasting model consists of two deep learning models; Long Short-Term Memory Unit (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). First, the apartment-level historical electric consumption data is clustered. Later the clusters are aggregated based on consumption profiles of consumers. At the building and floor level, the ensemble models are trained using aggregated electric consumption data. The proposed ensemble model forecasts the electric consumption at three spatial scales apartment, building, and floor level for hourly, daily, and weekly forecasting horizon. Furthermore, the impact of spatial-temporal granularity and cluster analysis on the prediction accuracy is analyzed. The dataset used in this study comprises high-resolution electric consumption data acquired through smart meters recorded on an hourly basis over the period of one year. The consumption data belongs to four multifamily residential buildings situated in an urban area of South Korea. To prove the effectiveness of our proposed forecasting model, we compared our model with widely known machine learning models and deep learning variants. The results achieved by our proposed ensemble scheme verify that model has learned the sequential behavior of electric consumption by producing superior performance with the lowest MAPE of 4.182 and 4.54 at building and floor level prediction, respectively. The experimental findings suggest that the model has efficiently captured the dynamic electric consumption characteristics to exploit ensemble model diversities and achieved lower forecasting error. The proposed ensemble forecasting scheme is well suited for predictive modeling and short-term load forecasting.

scholarly journals Efficient Deep Learning Models for DGA Domain Detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Juhong Namgung ◽  
Siwoon Son ◽  
Yang-Sae Moon
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Domain Names ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Domain Sequence ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
And Control

In recent years, cyberattacks using command and control (C&C) servers have significantly increased. To hide their C&C servers, attackers often use a domain generation algorithm (DGA), which automatically generates domain names for the C&C servers. Accordingly, extensive research on DGA domain detection has been conducted. However, existing methods cannot accurately detect continuously generated DGA domains and can easily be evaded by an attacker. Recently, long short-term memory- (LSTM-) based deep learning models have been introduced to detect DGA domains in real time using only domain names without feature extraction or additional information. In this paper, we propose an efficient DGA domain detection method based on bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), which learns bidirectional information as opposed to unidirectional information learned by LSTM. We further maximize the detection performance with a convolutional neural network (CNN) + BiLSTM ensemble model using Attention mechanism, which allows the model to learn both local and global information in a domain sequence. Experimental results show that existing CNN and LSTM models achieved F1-scores of 0.9384 and 0.9597, respectively, while the proposed BiLSTM and ensemble models achieved higher F1-scores of 0.9618 and 0.9666, respectively. In addition, the ensemble model achieved the best performance for most DGA domain classes, enabling more accurate DGA domain detection than existing models.

scholarly journals Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Solar Power Production Using Variational Auto-Encoder Driven Deep Learning Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 8400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelkader Dairi ◽  
Fouzi Harrou ◽  
Ying Sun ◽  
Sofiane Khadraoui
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

The accurate modeling and forecasting of the power output of photovoltaic (PV) systems are critical to efficiently managing their integration in smart grids, delivery, and storage. This paper intends to provide efficient short-term forecasting of solar power production using Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) model. Adopting the VAE-driven deep learning model is expected to improve forecasting accuracy because of its suitable performance in time-series modeling and flexible nonlinear approximation. Both single- and multi-step-ahead forecasts are investigated in this work. Data from two grid-connected plants (a 243 kW parking lot canopy array in the US and a 9 MW PV system in Algeria) are employed to show the investigated deep learning models’ performance. Specifically, the forecasting outputs of the proposed VAE-based forecasting method have been compared with seven deep learning methods, namely recurrent neural network, Long short-term memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM, Convolutional LSTM network, Gated recurrent units, stacked autoencoder, and restricted Boltzmann machine, and two commonly used machine learning methods, namely logistic regression and support vector regression. The results of this investigation demonstrate the satisfying performance of deep learning techniques to forecast solar power and point out that the VAE consistently performed better than the other methods. Also, results confirmed the superior performance of deep learning models compared to the two considered baseline machine learning models.

scholarly journals Short-Term Firm-Level Energy-Consumption Forecasting for Energy-Intensive Manufacturing: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Algorithms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maria N. C. Ribeiro ◽  
Pedro Rafael X. do Carmo ◽  
Iago Richard Rodrigues ◽  
Djamel Sadok ◽  
Theo Lynn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Site

To minimise environmental impact, to avoid regulatory penalties, and to improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time-series models due to its high dimensionality and problem-solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep-learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and two machine-learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest) for short-term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model and then use Diebold–Mariano testing to confirm the results. The results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

scholarly journals PM2.5 Prediction Model Based on Combinational Hammerstein Recurrent Neural Networks

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 2178
Author(s):  
Yi-Chung Chen ◽  
Tsu-Chiang Lei ◽  
Shun Yao ◽  
Hsin-Ping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Recurrent Neural Networks ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Computational Overhead ◽  
Implementation Costs ◽  
External Sources

Airborne particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) can have a profound effect on the health of the population. Many researchers have been reporting highly accurate numerical predictions based on raw PM2.5 data imported directly into deep learning models; however, there is still considerable room for improvement in terms of implementation costs due to heavy computational overhead. From the perspective of environmental science, PM2.5 values in a given location can be attributed to local sources as well as external sources. Local sources tend to have a dramatic short-term impact on PM2.5 values, whereas external sources tend to have more subtle but longer-lasting effects. In the presence of PM2.5 from both sources at the same time, this combination of effects can undermine the predictive accuracy of the model. This paper presents a novel combinational Hammerstein recurrent neural network (CHRNN) to enhance predictive accuracy and overcome the heavy computational and monetary burden imposed by deep learning models. The CHRNN comprises a based-neural network tasked with learning gradual (long-term) fluctuations in conjunction with add-on neural networks to deal with dramatic (short-term) fluctuations. The CHRNN can be coupled with a random forest model to determine the degree to which short-term effects influence long-term outcomes. We also developed novel feature selection and normalization methods to enhance prediction accuracy. Using real-world measurement data of air quality and PM2.5 datasets from Taiwan, the precision of the proposed system in the numerical prediction of PM2.5 levels was comparable to that of state-of-the-art deep learning models, such as deep recurrent neural networks and long short-term memory, despite far lower implementation costs and computational overhead.

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