scholarly journals Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daina Chiba ◽  
Nils W. Metternich ◽  
Michael D. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Fundamental Idea ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Data Generating Process ◽  
Conflict Duration

There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence. Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new split-population seemingly unrelated duration estimator that treats pre-conflict duration, conflict duration, and post-conflict duration as interdependent processes thus permitting improved predictions about the onset, duration, and recurrence of civil conflict. Our findings provide support for the more fundamental idea that prediction is dependent on a good approximation of the theoretically implied underlying data-generating process. In addition, we account for the fact that some countries might never experience these duration dynamics or become immune after experiencing them in the past.

scholarly journals Natural resource wars in the shadow of the future: Explaining spatial dynamics of violence during civil war

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott ◽  
Joakim Kreutz
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Conflict Setting ◽  
Spatial Shift ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Conflict Duration ◽  
General Experience ◽  
Conflict Risk

Previous studies on natural resources and civil wars find that the presence of natural resources increases both civil conflict risk and duration. At the same time, belligerents often cooperate over resource extraction, suggesting a temporal variation in the contest over this subnational space. This study argues that parties fight over natural resources primarily when they expect that the conflict is about to end, as the importance of controlling them increases in the post-conflict setting. In contrast, belligerents that anticipate a long war have incentives to avoid fighting near natural resources since excessive violence will hurt the extraction, trade, and subsequent taxation that provide conflict actors with income from the resource. We test our argument using yearly and monthly grid-cell-level data on African civil conflicts for the period 1989–2008 and find support for our expected spatial variation. Using whether negotiations are underway as an indicator about warring parties’ expectations on conflict duration, we find that areas with natural resources in general experience less intense fighting than other areas, but during negotiations these very areas witness most of the violence. We further find that the spatial shift in violence occurs immediately when negotiations are opened. A series of difference-in-difference estimations show a visible shift of violence towards areas rich in natural resources in the first three months after parties have initiated talks. Our findings are relevant for scholarship on understanding and predicting the trajectories of micro-level civil conflict violence, and for policymakers seeking to prevent peace processes being derailed.

“Wanton and Senseless” Revisited: The Study of Warfare in Civil Conflicts and the Historiography of the Algerian Massacres

2013 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Mundy
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Scientific Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
Theoretical Assumptions ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract:Over the past two decades, attention in the social sciences increasingly has been drawn to the problem of violent civil conflicts, a problem that has disproportionately affected Africa more than any other region. Two approaches to this problem have come to dominate the field: attempts to understand the root causes of civil conflict and attempts to understand the dynamics of its violence. Critics of the former approach have elaborated the ways in which the etiological agenda itself makes, and then politically mobilizes, the reality it claims to find. The goal of this article is to elaborate a similar critique for the latter agenda by examining the productive and destructive interaction between theoretical assumptions and empirical realities that have informed attempts to understand the Algerian massacres of the late 1990s. The overall intention is not to promote a new understanding of those atrocities. Rather, it is to gain a deeper insight into the processes by which episodes of mass civil violence become objects of scientific analysis—and thus objects for political utilization—despite their having emerged from an empirical milieu of contested, ambiguous, and indeterminate realities.

scholarly journals Civil War and Female Empowerment

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272098340
Author(s):  
Ingrid Vik Bakken ◽  
Halvard Buhaug
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Female Empowerment ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Transformative Potential ◽  
Sustained Effort ◽  
Gender Specific

Recent research has directed attention to the transformative potential of war for female empowerment. As a disruptive shock, armed conflict can create a window of opportunity for advancing the societal role of women. We complement this research agenda by looking at how conflict severity and termination condition the outcomes for women in the aftermath of civil conflict. We expect that both level of violence and mode of resolution affect subsequent female empowerment, where severe conflicts ending by a negotiated settlement have the greatest transformative potential. Consistent with expectations, we find that post-conflict improvements in female empowerment occur primarily after high-intensity civil conflicts. However, subsequent tests reveal that this effect is driven largely by conflicts terminated by peace agreements. The greatest improvement in female empowerment is seen when peace agreements have gender-specific provisions. These results support calls for a sustained effort toward mainstreaming gender issues in conflict resolution and peacebuilding processes.

scholarly journals Reconsidering the settlement of civil conflict

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-108
Author(s):  
Yuichi Kubota
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Policy Agendas

The settlement of civil conflict is highly relevant to both policy agendas and academic research. It is often difficult to bring to the negotiation table conflict parties who have long harbored hostility towards each other during the conflict. Even if the parties come to negotiation, it is often an arduous task to reach an agreement because the post-conflict embarkation comes with political uncertainty for the future. This special issue is aimed at addressing civil-conflict settlement from two different angles. First, it attempts to understand the requisite conditions for the successful settlement of armed civil conflicts. Second, it has a particular interest in the post-conflict design of political institutions. The academic contribution of the articles lies in theoretical advancement as it applies to the settlement of civil conflict. Each contribution adds a nuanced understanding of civil-conflict settlement to the relevant literature. The articles provide insight into the successful conditions of conflict settlement and post-conflict institutional design, such as power-sharing and the management of resources.

scholarly journals Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraint: Powersharing in the World’s States, 1975–2010

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaare W. Strøm ◽  
Scott Gates ◽  
Benjamin A.T. Graham ◽  
Håvard Strand
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Electoral Democracy ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Political Decisions

Arrangements for sharing political power serve three purposes: to give all relevant groups access to important political decisions; to partition the policy process, thereby granting groups relevant autonomy; and to constrain holders of political power from abusing authority. A new global dataset of political power sharing institutions, 1975–2010, is introduced here, disaggregated these along three institutional dimensions: inclusive, dispersive, and constraining. Existing literature associates power sharing with democracy and civil conflict resolution. Unlike the existing literature, this dataset shows inclusive institutions are common in post-conflict states, though least strongly associated with electoral democracy. Conversely, constraining institutions, though comparatively rare in states with current or recent civil conflicts, are highly correlated with electoral democracy.

Cut Short? United Nations Peacekeeping and Civil War Duration to Negotiated Settlements

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 1601-1629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Kathman ◽  
Michelle Benson
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Conflict Duration ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
The Cost

While much literature on peacekeeping seeks to determine the effect of United Nations (UN) intervention on post-conflict peace processes, most peacekeeping operations (PKOs) are deployed to active conflicts. The limited research on peacekeeping in active civil conflicts suggests that robust PKOs reduce hostilities. Yet, if PKOs serve to extend conflict duration, even lowered hostilities can yield greater destruction over time. We thus explore the effect of peacekeeping on conflict duration. We argue that PKOs with larger troop deployments are better able to increase the cost of combat, improve information sharing between belligerents, and provide security guarantees, thus reducing the time to negotiated resolutions. Using fine-grained data on monthly peacekeeping personnel commitments and observations of ongoing conflict between combatants, we examine how variations in mission deployments affect the success of UN peacekeeping in ending civil conflicts. As expected, our findings indicate that larger troop deployments shorten war duration to negotiated resolution.

Do International Interventions Prolong Civil Conflicts? The Effect of Ex Ante Expectations

2020 ◽  
pp. 0095327X2096765
Author(s):  
Tsukasa Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Direct Effect ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Third Party Intervention ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Conflict Duration ◽  
External Interventions ◽  
External Intervention

Many studies have found that third-party intervention tends to prolong the duration of civil conflict. However, some studies have suggested that mere expectations of external intervention can prolong conflict duration even in the absence of actual intervention. Therefore, the effects of external interventions in prolonging the duration of civil conflicts remain unclear. This study examines the direct effect of third-party intervention on the duration of civil conflict by controlling for the indirect effect of expectations of external intervention. The probabilities of intervention were estimated, and the direct effect of interventions was tested by controlling for the effect of ex ante expectations. The empirical findings were as follows: (1) Third-party intervention has no direct effect of prolonging the duration of a conflict when expectations are controlled for, and (2) Third-party intervention may have an indirect effect of shortening conflict duration, which contradicts the findings of previous studies.

Beyond Zeroes and Ones

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Chaudoin ◽  
Zachary Peskowitz ◽  
Christopher Stanton
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Battle Deaths ◽  
Tremendous Amount ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Conflict Intensity

There is a tremendous amount of variation in conflict intensity both across and within civil conflicts. Some conflicts result in huge numbers of battle deaths, while others do not. Conflict intensity is also dynamic. Conflict intensity escalates, de-escalates, and persists. What explains this variation? We take one of the most prominent explanations for the onset and occurrence of civil conflict—variation in economic conditions—and apply it to the intensity and dynamics of civil conflict. Using an instrumental variables strategy and a rich set of empirical models, we find that the intensity of conflict is negatively related to per capita income. We also find that economic conditions affect conflict dynamics, as poorer countries are likely to experience longer and more intense spells of fighting after the onset of conflict.

scholarly journals Is Divorce a Solution? Decentralization Effect on Economic Growth in Post-Civil Conflict Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samer Hamati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Historical Event ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Current Article ◽  
Small Dataset ◽  
Legal Procedures

AbstractCivil conflict is the nation’s most important historical event, and it became more frequent in countries already emerged from previous conflicts. High economic growth, as well as other institutional procedures, is key to break this conflict trap. Thus, the current article explores the role decentralization may play to enhance economic growth in post-civil conflict countries. In order to avoid untrue peaceful cases, the article adopted a strict criterion of post-conflict periods, leading to a small dataset. Distinguishing between two forms of decentralization and using two equations with different techniques, the article finds a hampering effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth in countries emerging from civil conflicts, while it finds insignificant mixed effects of political decentralization. These findings support the distinction made between the real de facto decentralization and the official de jure one. They validate the belief that although central authorities in many countries pretend to apply decentralization, they limit its effectiveness by some legal procedures creating “fake” decentralization.

Displacement and ethnic reintegration in Ituri, DR Congo: challenges ahead

2008 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Pottier
Keyword(s):  
Local Context ◽  
Dr Congo ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Past ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Complex Emergency ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
Contested Terrain

ABSTRACTThis article examines the ethnic character of Ituri's complex emergency. It considers the local context in which the IDP predicament has unfolded, asking questions about the prospect of, and responsibilities for, post-conflict reintegration. As militia disarmament and peace are linked but not coterminous, it is argued that militant ethnic agendas at the core of the conflict must be scrutinised for their ongoing significance. Revealing the past to be a contested terrain, these agendas call for an apartheid-style solution along lines of segregation first envisaged by Belgian colonialists. To move towards ethnic reintegration, Iturians face the challenge that they must create a common history freed from the stranglehold of extremist interpretations.

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