Presidential Succession Effects in Voting

Attitudes towards a departing administration can help shape attitudes towards candidates, especially when the incumbent vice-president is one of the candidates. This succession effect was apparent in the 1988 presidential election, when Vice-President Bush benefited from the enduring popularity of retiring President Reagan. This article develops a model in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party identification affect the general election vote. Analysis shows that this effect remains when controls are instituted for retrospective voting more generally. Attitudes towards Reagan also had an indirect impact by affecting the net Bush-Dukakis candidate score; altogether the estimated impact of the Reagan effect in 1988 was to turn the vice-president's predicted loss into his observed victory. Additionally, a succession effect was detected in the 1988 nominating campaign, with Bush's popularity over Dole benefiting from reactions to the Reagan administration. There is evidence of succession effects in other presidential elections, particularly a Johnson effect in 1968.

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You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽

10.1515/for-2020-2103 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 627-650

Author(s):

Jamie L. Carson ◽

Spencer Hardin ◽

Aaron A. Hitefield

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Vice President ◽

The United States ◽

Congressional Elections ◽

General Election ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

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Perancangan Infografik sebagai Media Pendukung Sosialisasi KPU ke Daerah Terpencil

Besaung : Jurnal Seni Desain dan Budaya ◽

10.36982/jsdb.v4i1.1400 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

M. Edo Pratama Putra

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Vice President ◽

General Election ◽

Main Concern ◽

Participation Rates ◽

Remote Areas ◽

Hilly Area ◽

General Elections ◽

The Media

The General Election was held in 2019 with the KPU as the organizer on April 17, 2019. Among the tasks of the KPU was the dissemination of General Elections to remote areas throughout Indonesia. Remote areas are the main concern of the KPU in an effort to increase election participation in 2019, because remote areas are one of the biggest contributors to the Golput number in the 2014 elections. One of the remote areas with very low participation rates is Tegal Rejo Village, Gedang Sari District, Gunung Kidul Regency. This village is located in a hilly area which is one of the disaster prone areas. Tegal Rejo village has not received socialization from the Gunung Kidul Regency KPU and many villagers are still not informed about the 2019 Presidential Election. From the problems that occur, the author finds a solution to the problem by making an "Infographic Design as a Media Supporting the Socialization of KPU to Remote Areas". As for this design contains information on Election 2019, such as the introduction of candidates in the form of profiles of each prospective president and vice president, procedures for voting, time and place of execution until the conditions become a Permanent Voters List (DPT). And the media created will be given to the KPU to be the material for dissemination to remote areas in Indonesia.

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Perancangan Infografik sebagai Media Pendukung Sosialisasi KPU ke Daerah Terpencil

Besaung : Jurnal Seni Desain dan Budaya ◽

10.36982/jsdb.v4i3.786 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

M. Edo Pratama Putra

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Vice President ◽

General Election ◽

Main Concern ◽

Participation Rates ◽

Remote Areas ◽

Hilly Area ◽

General Elections ◽

The Media

ABSTRACTThe General Election was held in 2019 with the KPU as the organizer on April 17, 2019. Among the tasks of the KPU was the dissemination of General Elections to remote areas throughout Indonesia. Remote areas are the main concern of the KPU in an effort to increase election participation in 2019, because remote areas are one of the biggest contributors to the Golput number in the 2014 elections. One of the remote areas with very low participation rates is Tegal Rejo Village, Gedang Sari District, Gunung Kidul Regency. This village is located in a hilly area which is one of the disaster prone areas. Tegal Rejo village has not received socialization from the Gunung Kidul Regency KPU and many villagers are still not informed about the 2019 Presidential Election. From the problems that occur, the author finds a solution to the problem by making an "Infographic Design as a Media Supporting the Socialization of KPU to Remote Areas". As for this design contains information on Election 2019, such as the introduction of candidates in the form of profiles of each prospective president and vice president, procedures for voting, time and place of execution until the conditions become a Permanent Voters List (DPT). And the media created will be given to the KPU to be the material for dissemination to remote areas in Indonesia.Keywords : Infographics, Socialization of KPU, Remote AreasABSTRAKPada tahun 2019 Komisi Pemilihan Umum mengadakan Pemilihan Umum berupa Pemilihan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden, yang akan dilaksanakan pada 17 April 2019. diantara tugas yang dijalankan KPU adalah berupa sosialisasi Pemilihan Umum ke daerah-daerah terpencil di seluruh Indonesia. Daerah terpencil menjadi perhatian utama KPU dalam upaya peningkatan partisipasi Pemilu pada tahun 2019, karena daerah terpencil menjadi salah satu penyumbang angka Golput terbesar di Pemilu tahun 2014. Salah satu penyebab kurangnya angka partisipasi pemilih adalah diantaranya sedikitnya pengetahuan dan informasi masyarakat tentang Pemilu di daerah-daerah terpencil Indonesia. Salah satu daerah terpencil yang tingkat partisipasinya sangat rendah adalah Desa Tegal Rejo Kecamatan Gedang Sari, Kabupaten Gunung Kidul. Desa ini terletak di daerah perbukitan yang menjadi salah satu daerah rawan bencana. Desa Tegal Rejo belum mendapat sosialisasi dari KPU Kabupaten Gunung Kidul dan masyarakat desa masih banyak yang tidak mendapat informasi mengenai Pemilihan Presiden 2019. Dari permasalahan yang terjadi, penulis menemukan usulan pemecahan masalah yaitu dengan membuat sebuah “Perancangan Infografik sebagai Media Pendukung Sosialisasi KPU ke Daerah Terpencil”. Adapun pada perancangan ini berisikan tentang Informasi Pemilu 2019, seperti pengenalan calon berupa profil setiap calon peresiden dan wakil presiden, tata cara mencoblos, waktu dan tempat pelaksanaan hingga syarat-syarat menjadi Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT). Dan media yang dibuat akan diberikan kepada KPU untuk menjadi bahan sosialisasi ke daerah-daerah terpencil di Indonesia.Kata kunci : Infografik, Sosialisasi KPU, Dearah Terpencil

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Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election

Political Science and Politics ◽

10.1017/s1049096512000923 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 45 (04) ◽

pp. 640-643 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Thomas M. Holbrook

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Vice President ◽

Bill Clinton ◽

Presidential Approval ◽

Performance Variables ◽

Retrospective Voting ◽

Forecasting Error ◽

Conditional Effects ◽

Presidential Performance ◽

Elected Office

Although research at other levels of elected office has shown that incumbency has a powerful, additive effect on votes (Hogan 2004; Jacobson 2009; Krebs 1998), these effects largely have been ignored in presidential forecasting models (but see Abramowitz 2008). Instead, some scholars speculate about the conditional effects of incumbency; specifically, the decreased applicability of the retrospective model when the president is not on the ticket leaving the somewhat-harder-to-blame-or-reward vice president to represent the administration. The difficult-to-predict 2000 presidential election generated some discussion on this point. Although I and others argued (Campbell 2001; Holbrook 2001; Wlezien 2001) that part of the explanation for the forecasting error in 2000 lies with Al Gore's failure to embrace the Bill Clinton-Al Gore record and reinforce retrospective voting, others indicate that the retrospective cue may generally be weaker when the president is not on the ticket (Campbell 2001; Lewis-Beck and Tien 2001; Nadeau and Lewis-Beck 2001). Indeed, Campbell (2001; 2008) argues in favor of only giving half weight to presidential performance variables when the vice president, rather than president, is representing the incumbent administration. The logic here is simple: absent the president on the ticket, it is more difficult to frame the election as a referendum, leading voters to attach less weight to incumbency-oriented considerations. This is not to say that factors such as presidential approval and economic performance are unimportant when incumbents do not run, only that these factors might matter less.

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Beginner Voter Perception of Presidential Candidates (Case Study of the Presidential Election in 2019)

Budapest International Research and Critics in Linguistics and Education (BirLE) Journal ◽

10.33258/birle.v3i2.941 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 795-801

Author(s):

Syahrur Razy ◽

Winarno Winarno ◽

Rusnaini Rusnaini

Keyword(s):

Social Media ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Vice President ◽

Study Data ◽

General Election ◽

Presidential Candidates ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Study Population ◽

The Media ◽

Quantitative Descriptive

In the 2019 general election, the Indonesian people simultaneously elected the President and Vice President and legislative members. The Indonesian people are waiting for who will lead the next five years, especially for the President and Vice President with figures Joko Widodo - Ma'ruf Amin and challenger Prabowo Subianto - Sandiagan Uno. This study aims to determine the perceptions of first-time voters in the two-figure Presidential election in 2019. This study uses a quantitative descriptive study, data obtained from the sample of the study population were analyzed according to the statistical methods used. Descriptive research in this study is intended to get the perception of novice voters at SMAN 5 Surakarta of the presidential candidates in the 2019 general election. There are several things that can affect perceptions about the figure of the President, namely leadership, anti-corruption, welfare, nationalism and change for a more Indonesian state good. All factors are obtained through social media owned by novice voters. Beginner voters in SMAN 5 Surakarta are in the category of critical voters because with knowledge of social media and issues in the media are able to assess whether the prospective leader is eligible to be elected in the general election.

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Political Advertising and Persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections

American Politics Research ◽

10.1177/1532673x09353507 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 38 (2) ◽

pp. 303-329 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Michael M. Franz ◽

Travis N. Ridout

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

Public Funding ◽

Vice President ◽

Political Advertising ◽

The Other ◽

County Level ◽

Major Party ◽

2008 Presidential Election ◽

The Impact

The 2008 presidential election was historic in many respects. The campaign included the first African American major-party candidate, and neither candidate was an incumbent president or vice president. In addition, one candidate took public funding and the other candidate did not. This latter disparity resulted in an imbalance of resources across the two campaigns, especially in the purchase of political advertising. But did that imbalance matter for who won? Did advertising move voters, and if so, by how much? This article examines patterns of presidential ad buys in 2008 and compares them with presidential ad buys in 2004. It also examines the impact of advertising on county-level vote returns in both years. The results demonstrate some important differences in advertising patterns across years, especially in terms of ad sponsorship and market-level advertising advantages. We also find significant and strong advertising persuasion effects in 2008.

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Election Design Following Constitutional Court Decision Number 14/PUU-XI/2013

Constitutional Review ◽

10.31078/consrev223 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 216 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Fajar Laksono ◽

Oly Viana Agustine

Keyword(s):

Presidential Elections ◽

Vice President ◽

General Election ◽

Court Decision ◽

Constitutional Court ◽

Original Intent ◽

Major Implication ◽

General Elections ◽

The Will ◽

Legal Condition

The major implication from Constitutional Court Decision No. 14/PUU-XI/2013 is that the Constitution promotes fundamental changes to the design of the general election regarding both process and substance. Therefore, in order to uphold the Constitution, efforts are required to reconstruct the design of the general election, particularly so that elections are conducted in accordance with Decision No. 14/PUU-XI/2013 as a representation of the spirit and the will of the 1945 Constitution. Essentially, the current norm regarding the implementation of general elections following the election of members of the representative institution is not consistent with the stipulations in Article 22E Paragraph (1) and Paragraph (2) and Article 1 Paragraph (2) of the 1945 Constitution. Constitutional Court Decision No. 14/PUU-XI/2013 aims to realign the implementation of the elections with the intentions of the 1945 Constitution. Through implementation of the original intent method and systematic interpretation, the Constitutional Court offered its interpretation that the framers of the amended Constitution intended that general elections have five ballot boxes, with the first for the People’s Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR), the second for the Regional Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah, DPD), the third for the president and vice president, the fourth for the Regional People’s Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah, DPRD) at the provincial level and the fifth for the DPRD at the regency level. Thus, it can be concluded that the presidential elections should be conducted simultaneously with elections of members of the representative bodies. Through this decision, the Constitutional Court revoked the prevailing norm, such that Presidential Elections and Elections of members of representative bodies were no longer valid because they violated the 1945 Constitution. The Constitutional Court introduced a new legal condition that obligated General Elections to be held simultaneously.

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Pengusulan Pasangan Calon Presiden Dan Wakil Presiden Sebagai Peserta Pemilu Menurut Undang-Undang Pilpres

JURNAL CITA HUKUM ◽

10.15408/jch.v2i2.2324 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 339-352

Author(s):

Ahmad Farhan Subhi

Keyword(s):

Political Parties ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Vice President ◽

General Election ◽

The Political ◽

Legal Analysis ◽

Election Law ◽

Candidate Pair ◽

Legal Position ◽

The Republic

Abstract : Nomination of the Candidate Pair of President and Vice President For Participants Election According to the Presidential Election Law. Knowing the legal position of the candidates for President and Vice-President and the Political Parties Elections, namely Knowing setting Political Parties in the nomination of the Candidate Election of President and Vice-President and the timing of the nomination of the candidate of President and Vice President based on legal analysis. It is motivated by the lack of rules regarding the nomination of candidates for President and Vice President of the Law No. 42 Year 2008 on the General Election of President and Vice President, namely in the norm of Article 9 and Article 14 paragraph (2) which do not conform to the norms of Section 22E paragraph (3) and the norm of Article 6A paragraph (2) of the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia (the 1945 NRI 1945). Abstrak : Pengusulan Pasangan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden Sebagai Peserta Pemilu Menurut Undang-Undang Pilpres. Mengetahui kedudukan hukum calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden dan Partai Politik Peserta Pemilu, yakni Mengetahui pengaturan Partai Politik Peserta Pemilu dalam pengusulan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden dan pengaturan waktu pengusulan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden berdasarkan analisa hukum. Hal tersebut dilatar belakangi oleh adanya aturan mengenai pengusulan calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 42 Tahun 2008 Tentang Pemilihan Umum Presiden dan Wakil Presiden, yakni di dalam norma Pasal 9 dan Pasal 14 ayat (2) yang tidak sesuai dengan norma Pasal 22E ayat (3) dan norma Pasal 6A ayat (2) Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1945 (UUD NRI 1945). DOI: 10.15408/jch.v2i2.2324

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The COVID-19 Pandemic and US Presidential Elections

10.31222/osf.io/sxajv ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Abel Brodeur ◽

Leonardo Baccini ◽

Stephen Weymouth

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

Vote Share ◽

Counterfactual Analysis ◽

County Level ◽

Meat Processing ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Socioeconomic Variables ◽

Retrospective Voting ◽

Identification Strategy

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump's vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. Our paper contributes to the literature of retrospective voting and demonstrates that voters hold leaders accountable for their (mis-)handling of negative shocks.

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The Decline of Electoral Participation in America

American Political Science Review ◽

10.1017/s0003055400188379 ◽

1982 ◽

Vol 76 (3) ◽

pp. 502-521 ◽

Cited By ~ 180

Author(s):

Paul R. Abramson ◽

John H. Aldrich

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

Party Identification ◽

Political Efficacy ◽

Congressional Elections ◽

Congressional Election ◽

Electoral Participation ◽

Data Limitations ◽

Government Responsiveness ◽

Combined Impact

Since 1960 turnout has declined in presidential elections, and since 1966 it has declined in off-year congressional elections. These declines occurred despite several major trends that could have increased electoral participation. An analysis of the eight SRC-CPS presidential election surveys conducted between 1952 and 1980 and of the six SRC-CPS congressional election surveys conducted between 1958 and 1978 suggests that these declines may result largely from the combined impact of two attitudinal trends: the weakening of party identification and declining beliefs about government responsiveness, that is, lowered feelings of “external” political efficacy. Between two-thirds and seven-tenths of the decline in presidential turnout between 1960 and 1980 appears to result from the combined impact of these trends. Data limitations hinder our efforts to study the decline of congressional turnout, but approximately two-fifths to one-half of the decline between 1966 and 1978 appears to result from the combined impact of these attitudinal trends.

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