Estimating Impulse-Response Functions for Macroeconomic Models using Directional Quantiles

A multivariate vector autoregressive model is used to construct the distribution of the impulse-response functions of macroeconomics shocks. In particular, the paper studies the distribution of the short-, medium-, and long-term effects after a shock. Structural and reduced form quantile vector autoregressive models are developed where heterogeneity in conditional effects can be evaluated through multivariate quantile processes. The distribution of the responses can then be obtained by using uniformly distributed random vectors. An empirical example of exchange rate pass-through in Argentina is presented.

Testing the Associations Between State and Trait Anxiety, Anger, Sadness, and Ambulatory Blood Pressure and Whether Race Impacts These Relationships

Background Anxiety, anger, and sadness are related to elevated ambulatory blood pressure (ABP), yet it is unclear whether each emotion exerts unique effects. Moreover, an understanding of who might be most susceptible to the negative effects of these emotions is limited, with the trait tendency to experience them or one’s race as potential moderators. Purpose The study examined the potential for differential effects of momentary anxiety, anger, and sadness on ABP. The study assessed whether a trait tendency to experience these negative emotions and/or race (Black vs. non-Black) would moderate these relationships. Methods Participants (n = 153) completed trait anxiety, anger, and depressive symptoms measures at baseline. ABP was collected over two 24-hour periods 3–4 months apart. Momentary measures of anxiety, anger, and sadness were assessed via ecological momentary assessment (EMA) after each ABP reading. Results Momentary anxiety consistently predicted diastolic blood pressure but not systolic blood pressure. Momentary anger and sadness did not predict blood pressure (BP). Conditional effects were found with momentary anxiety and anger predicting elevated BP in those individuals with trait anxiety/anger at its mean. Trait anxiety and depression consistently predicted heightened BP in Black participants. Trait anger did not moderate the relationships between negative emotions and ABP. Conclusions Findings suggest that momentary anxiety and anger should be given attention as potential risk factors for hypertension and highlight the unique perspective of EMA methods. Black participants who were more anxious and depressed experienced heightened BP, with anxiety and depression providing possible intervention targets in improving racial disparities in cardiovascular health.

Farm forests, biomass poverty and chronic seasonal hunger.

Seasonal hunger persists as the most common food insecurity experience for millions of small dryland farmers. This study tests the inter-relationships among food insecurity, farm forests and biomass poverty using a longitudinal data set from the Amahara region of Ethiopia. These data form part of the Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey data that collected panel data over three survey rounds from 640 households. The unique population representative data set includes for the first time includes socio-economic, wellbeing micro-landuse measures including farm forests. Hierarchical mixed effect regression models assessed the relationship between biomass poverty and food insecurity as well as the conditional effects of biomass poverty among the poorest farmers and women headed households. During the three waves over a six-year study period, farmers reported increased stress from smaller land holdings, higher prices and climate related shocks. During the same period, a clear trend towards spontaneous dispersed afforestation is observed both by researchers and space-based satellite remote sensing. Dedicating approximately 10% of farm area to forest reduces Months of Food Insecurity by half. Greatest reductions in food insecurity from farm forests are reported by female headed, ultra-poor, and crop residue-burning households. Biomass poverty may therefore be a primary constraint to resilient food security on these farms. This investigation provides novel representative quantitative evidence of induced intensification with important implications of for nature-based solutions for healthy and resilient people and planet.

splatPop: simulating population scale single-cell RNA sequencing data

Population-scale single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is now viable, enabling finer resolution functional genomics studies and leading to a rush to adapt bulk methods and develop new single-cell-specific methods to perform these studies. Simulations are useful for developing, testing, and benchmarking methods but current scRNA-seq simulation frameworks do not simulate population-scale data with genetic effects. Here, we present splatPop, a model for flexible, reproducible, and well-documented simulation of population-scale scRNA-seq data with known expression quantitative trait loci. splatPop can also simulate complex batch, cell group, and conditional effects between individuals from different cohorts as well as genetically-driven co-expression.

The short-term, circumscribed, and conditional effects of cross-partisan conversation

Scholars and activists have raised alarm about affective polarization---voters' increasing dislike for supporters of opposing political parties---and its potential negative implications for democracy. Organizations, activists, and scholars have identified cross-partisan conversations as a promising paradigm for reducing affective polarization and, in turn, bolstering democratic accountability. However, existing theory and empirical work remains ambiguous. We argue that cross-partisan conversations have potential to reduce intergroup prejudices, but that such one-shot interactions are likely to have short-term effects that decay, would be circumscribed within the interpersonal domain and not extend to democratic attitudes, and would be conditional on topic, diminishing if the conversations dwell on group differences. We support this argument with results from two unique experiments where we paired outpartisan strangers in real time to discuss randomly assigned topics face-to-face over video calls. In Study 1, we found that non-political conversations between outpartisans dramatically decreased affective polarization, reversing over two decades' worth of increases. However, these impacts decayed completely in a follow-up survey. Moreover, the conversations had no effect on outcomes related to democratic accountability, such as support for outpartisan politicians. Study 2 replicated Study 1's results in a more representative sample and included conversations about group differences (i.e., politics). We again found large effects of non-political cross-partisan conversations on affective polarization, but that conversations about group differences had no effects. All conversations were again ineffective at changing democratic attitudes. Our results support our argument regarding the conditional, short-term, and circumscribed effects of cross-partisan conversations.

Evidence for the irrelevance of irrelevant events

The expectation that voters behave rationally has been challenged through studies suggesting that “irrelevant events” like natural disasters and sports results change voting behavior. We test the effect of irrelevant events by matching candidate-level election results from Irish general (1922–2020) and local elections (1942–2019) with games in the men's Gaelic football and hurling championships, the most popular sports in Ireland. Although Irish citizens care deeply about sports, we fail to find any relationship between match results and support for incumbents or politicians of government parties. These findings hold when applying an “unexpected event during survey design” to two representative surveys. Our results contribute to the literature on political accountability and point to conditional effects of irrelevant events.

Matching words with actions: understanding the effects of CSA stance-action consistency on negative consumer responses

PurposeDespite corporate social advocacy (CSA) has become a popular phenomenon, less is known about the potential negative public responses to corporations' CSA involvement and promotion. This paper aims to investigate the main and conditional effects of a new concept, CSA stance-action consistency, on consumers' negative responses to CSA communication.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a 4 (four types of CSA stance-action consistency) × 2 (CSA record: long vs short) between-subject experimental design. Social issue activism was measured as a continuous variable and treated as a moderator. An online experiment was conducted with participants recruited from MTurk (n = 224).FindingsCSA stance-action consistency significantly predicted negative word-of-mouth and boycott intention. Participants' social issue activism moderated the effects. However, CSA record was not a significant predictor of consumers' negative responses to CSA communication.Originality/valueThis study advances CSA and corporate communication literature by proposing a new concept, CSA stance-action consistency and providing empirical evidence on its effects on consumer responses. Practical implications to CSA promotion were discussed.