scholarly journals Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burcu Savun ◽  
Daniel C. Tirone

AbstractThe recent civil war literature suggests that negative economic shocks in low-income countries increase the risk of civil war. Foreign aid can be an effective conflict-prevention tool in times of severe economic conditions. Aid cushions government spending from the downward pressures of economic shocks, providing recipient governments with resources they can use to make rebellion a less attractive option for aggrieved domestic groups. Using Official Development Assistance (ODA) data covering 1990 through 2004, we find that foreign aid appears to be a useful tool for preventing civil wars in the wake of negative economic shocks, and as such aid should be assessed by donors with these conflict-suppressing aspects in mind.

Policy Papers ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 09 ◽  
Author(s):  

The paper proposes a doubling of access limits on concessional lending to ensure that the Fund can respond effectively to the needs of low-income countries (LICs) severely affected by the current world economic downturn. Pending adoption of broader reforms to the LIC facilities architecture, higher access limits under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Exogenous Shocks Facility-High-Access Component (ESF-HAC) would give the Fund greater flexibility in assisting LICs, which have become more exposed to global volatility over time. A doubling of access limits would restore them to their 1998 levels in percent of GDP and would be consistent with the approach taken in determining new access limits for General Resources Account (GRA) resources. It would also be in line with the projected doubling of medium-term demand for concessional resources.


Policy Papers ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 2005 (40) ◽  
Author(s):  

The G-8 debt relief proposal, if adopted, should have little impact on the rational and operational aspects of the shocks window, but it may affect some of the financing consideratins, which are taken up in the page on "The G-8 Debt Cancellation Proposal and its Implications for the Fund.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 403-422
Author(s):  
Mamo G. Tefera ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Abstract Research background: Foreign aid flows to Africa mostly the Low-Income Countries (LICs) have increased drastically since 2000. Increasing aid flows are expected to stimulate economic growth that can release resources towards enabling LICs to reduce aid dependency. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to discuss the dynamics of bilateral aid trends and patterns among 27 LICs in Africa during 2000–2017. The main question this study tries to answer is: how have aid sources, compositions and dependency changed in LICs? Research methodology: The study employs a descriptive analysis technique to analyses bilateral aid flows to LICs in Africa from 50 donors during 2000–2017. Results: Total net aid flows to LICs increased by 1.5 times during 2000–2017 and were predominantly in the form of grants (92.7%). The study found a shift of sectoral aid allocations from the economic and productive sectors towards the social sector. Net aid as a share of GDP increased almost two-fold; implying an increasing trend of aid dependency in several LICs. Novelty: This study tries to present a full account of bilateral aid flows both from Traditional Donors (TDs) and Non-Traditional Donors (NTDs), unlike many earlier studies that have focused on TDs.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Mohamad Buheji

The “Economics of Climate-Resilient Development” present a comprehensive mitigation plan to avoid future socio-economic crisis. The authors foresight that unless strategies are adapt effectively and efficiently today by the different communities and specially in the developing low income countries, the world would be vulnerable to economic shocks that never been experienced before.The book can be considered unique since it linked the economic development with the techniques of adaptation. It coincides with work the reviewer published about resilience economy where approaches for enhancing people and communities are explained in order to reach the minimum expected adaptability and flexibility. Buheji (2018a, 2018b).However, the work of Fankhauser and McDermott (2016) greatly focus on climate change, as the main challenge of economic development. The work would be greater if the editors ensure more inclusion and details on the nature of human being journeys.The issue of poverty covered in the book is a good example of foresighted socio-economic risk that needs to be mitigated to avoid deterioration due to many conditions that mostly would be uncontrollable due external unforeseen factors. In an earlier work, these factors were seen the cause for more complexity of the business models, which required proactive resilient practices, Buheji (2017).


Author(s):  
Marc-Olivier Cantin

Abstract Recent research has drawn attention to the role of socialization in shaping the behaviors of rebel combatants during civil wars. In particular, scholars have highlighted how vertical and horizontal socialization dynamics can bring combatants to engage in a range of wartime practices, including the use of violence against civilians. This article synthesizes existing theories of combatant socialization and combines them into an integrated framework, which casts the focus on individual pathways toward civilian targeting and specifies the underlying sociopsychological mechanisms through which socializing influences motivate participation in violence. Specifically, the article charts five key pathways that operate through different mechanisms and that are based upon varying degrees of internalization regarding the legitimacy of civilian targeting. In each case, I also identify a number of unit-level factors that are likely to make a given pathway particularly prevalent among combatants. The article then illustrates how these pathways map onto the actual experiences of civil war combatants by examining the drivers of individual participation in violence against civilians among low-ranking members of the Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone. The case study evidence highlights the equifinal nature of violence perpetration during civil wars, shedding light on the different social needs, influences, sanctions, and constraints that may motivate involvement in violence. By analyzing rebel behavior through the prism of perpetrator studies, this article thus seeks to establish the civil war literature on firmer theoretical grounds, providing a synthetic account of the individual experiences, motives, and trajectories that are often left unaddressed in this body of research.


Policy Papers ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 (89) ◽  
Author(s):  

The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?


Policy Papers ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 2005 (31) ◽  
Author(s):  

At the recent Board discussion on strengthening the Fund's assistance to low-income countries dealing with sudden and exogenous shocks, most Directors supported the establishment of an Exogenous Shocks Facility within the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Trust. In an earlier discussion, Directors noted that exogenous shocks could have significant negative impacts on developing countries' growth, macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability, and poverty, and that low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to shocks due to lack of diversification, limited capacity to build up reserves, and prohibitively expensive or unavailable market insurance. The international community can supplement national efforts for reducing vulnerability to shocks. Recent research shows that foreign assistance can be unusually effective in the aftermath of a shock. Such assistance needs to be available quickly, and it needs to be associated with sound adjustment policies and measures to reduce vulnerability to future shocks.


Policy Papers ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 09 ◽  
Author(s):  

This paper assesses the adequacy of the Fund’s facilities and financing framework for low-income countries (LICs) and proposes reform options. It is part of a broader review of all Fund financial instruments and is timely given the pressure the current global financial crisis is putting on LICs. It builds on previous efforts to adapt the Fund’s toolkit to the evolving needs of its LIC members, including creation of the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and the recent modification of the Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF). This paper provides the basis for the first stage of the LIC-specific review, with a focus on: (i) gaps and overlaps in the facility architecture for LICs, (ii) design issues such as access, financing terms, and conditionality, and (iii) the concessional resource envelope and funding structure. Based on feedback from Executive Directors and further external consultation, more detailed reform proposals will be prepared in the second stage of the review. The Fund’s Facilities and Financing Framework for Low-Income Countries—Supplementary Information March 13, 2009


Policy Papers ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 2005 (79) ◽  
Author(s):  

At the Executive Board discussion on the role of the Fund in low-income countries, Directors requested proposals to address the absence of concessional instruments other than the PRGF in the Fund's financial assistance to low-income members facing exogenous shocks. Against this background, this paper analyses the main issues in designing such a window within the PRGF Trust.


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