Domestic Exchange Rates and Regional Economic Growth in the United States, 1899–1908: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 1010-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronnie J. Phillips ◽  
Harvey Cutler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations

This article examines one feature of the pre—Federal Reserve financial system that has not been widely researched: the market for bank drafts (the “domestic exchanges”). Though the exchanges existed for nearly a century, critics argued that exchange rate fluctuations exacerbated financial panics. We find, using cointegration analysis over the period from 1899 to 1908, that differences in growth rates across regions caused predictable movements in rates. We conclude that the exchanges promoted efficiency in the payments system. This supports the view that the private sector might have developed a unified national system had the Fed not abolished the exchanges.

scholarly journals Analisis pengaruh nilai tukar, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tenaga kerja terhadap ekspor Indonesia dan Malaysia ke China.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 379-390
Author(s):  
Candra Mustika ◽  
Erni Achmad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Negative Effect

The purpose of this study was to determine and analyze the development of exchange rates, labor, and economic growth, and exports of Indonesia and Malaysia to China from 1993 to 2015 and to analyze the effect of exchange rates, labor, and economic growth on Indonesian and Malaysian exports to China from 1993 to 2015 Based on the results of research The development of Indonesian exports to China fluctuated or fluctuated during the period 1993 to 2015 with an average of 13.95%, while the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar and economic growth also fluctuated the average growth the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar was 14.52%, and the average economic growth of 4.69% labor also fluctuated with an average growth of 1.72%. Based on the results of the panel data regression shows the exchange rate variable has a significant negative effect on exports to China, the labor variable has a positive and significant effect on exports to China, while the economic growth variable has no significant effect on exports to China.  

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald I McKinnon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations

What keeps the three major industrial blocs -- Western Europe, North America, and industrialized Asia -- from developing a common monetary standard to prevent exchange-rate fluctuations? One important reason is the differing theoretical perspectives of economic advisers. The first issue is whether or not a floating foreign exchange market -- where governments do not systematically target exchange rates -- is “efficient.” Many economists believe that exchange risk can be effectively hedged in forward markets so international monetary reform is unnecessary. Second, after a decade and a half of unremitting turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, economists cannot agree on “equilibrium” or desirable official targets for exchange rates if they were to be stabilized. The contending principles of purchasing power parity and of balanced trade yield very different estimates for the “correct” yen/dollar and mark/dollar exchange rates. Third, if the three major blocs can agree to fix nominal exchange rates within narrow bands, by what working rule should the new monetary standard be anchored to prevent worldwide inflation or deflation? After considering the magnitude of exchange-rate fluctuations since floating began in the early 1970s, I analyze these conceptual issues in the course of demonstrating how the central banks of Japan, the United States, and Germany (representing the continental European bloc) can establish fixed exchange rates and international monetary stability.

The Self-Inflicted Wounds

Money ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith ◽  
James K. Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Self ◽  
Gold Content ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Stock Market Crash

This chapter examines the negative consequences of Britain's return to the gold standard in 1925 and the stock market speculation in the United States in the late 1920s. In Britain, as elsewhere, prices fell in 1920 and 1921 as the wartime shortages were overcome, the budget was brought back under control, and the boom came to an end. Unemployment, which had been negligible in the preceding years, rose to 12.6 percent of the labor force in 1921. The chapter considers Winston Churchill's justification of Britain's decision to restore the pound to its prewar gold content of 123.27 grains of fine gold, its old exchange rate of $4.87, John Maynard Keynes's case against Churchill, and the stock market crash of October 1929 in the United States after the Federal Reserve Board had issued a warning against banks's use of Federal Reserve funds to finance speculation.

U.S.-China Exchange Rate Negotiation: Stakeholders' Participation and Strategy Deployment

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Yixuan Cao ◽  
Yong Cao ◽  
Rashmi Prasad ◽  
Zhengping Shen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negotiation Strategy ◽  
Negotiation Strategies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

Exchange rates influence a country's trading capability, foreign reserves and competitiveness. Recently, the exchange rate between the Chinese RMB and the U.S. dollar has been a contentious issue in both the United States and China. In this paper, we conduct a historical review of how the United States deployed negotiation strategies with China on the exchange rate issue and consider the degree to which it follows theoretical expectations. We then analyze the changing nature of the factors which shape exchange rate negotiations between the two nations in projecting alternative scenarios for the future of conflict resolution between the U.S. and China on this issue. We predict that the U.S. is likely to continue alternating between competition and collaboration, a negotiation cycle influenced by U.S. domestic politics, and China is less likely to continue with accommodation and compromise. The sequencing and timing of each nation's negotiation strategy will lead to widely divergent consequences for the management of exchange rates and the world economy.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON INDONESIA'S FISHERIES EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES IN 1989-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Akhmad Jayadi ◽  
Tanto Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Indonesia is a maritime country that has huge potential in fisheries sector. The average of indonesian fisheries production and export volumes always increase every year. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, government spending, inflation, interest rates, and sanitation policies to Indonesia fishery export to the United States in 1989-2019. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, UN COMTRADE, and the Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. This study uses the Error Coerrection Model (ECM) method to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. This study explains that in the long-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect, and interest rates have negative effect on export. In short-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect on export. Inflation and sanitation policy do not affect export in the long-term or short-term, while interest rates in the short-term do not affect Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Exports, Government Spending, Exchange Rates, Non-Tariff Barriers, Error Correction Model.JEL: F10, F13, C32

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rates on economic growth in Iraq for the period 1995-2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Asaad Hamdi Maher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The One ◽  
Main Engine ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Growth Models

The currency is the main engine of the process of trade at the internal and external levels, and the exchange rate is one of the fundamentals of the foreign trade to settle international payments, as the import process to the currency of the country of origin to pay the value of imported goods on the one hand, on the other hand, we find that individuals in the case their travel to another country they need the currency of the country they travel to, and in this case they find themselves in the process of exchange, so that shifting in the exchange rate affect the process of trade and thus on economic growth. Based on the above, the title of the topic, which aims to identify the theoretical framework of exchange rates and economic growth models as well as measuring the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth in Iraq, has been chosen by formulating a standard model for the period 1995-2015

scholarly journals Does an undervalued currency merit economic growth?: Evidence from Taiwan

2012 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-57
Author(s):  
Ho-Don Yan ◽  
Cheng-Lang Yang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Sustained Development ◽  
The Third ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment

Whether an undervalued currency is an attainable industrial policy for developing countries? sustained development has recently invoked many discussions. This paper studies the case of Taiwan after first determining the misalignment of Taiwan?s currency by estimating the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate. Three sub-periods for Taiwan?s currency exchange rate misalignment are identified: undervaluation in the periods 1981-1986 and 1998- 2008 and overvaluation during 1987-1997. Second, we use a vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the Granger causality between exchange rate misalignment and GDP, by incorporating export and investment variables. The evidence shows that exchange rate misalignment does Granger cause GDP and it mainly comes from the third sub-period when the Taiwan dollar was undervalued. From past experience and the current economic doldrums of the last resort of global exports - the United States - currency undervaluation is not a validated strategy upon which emerging markets can wishfully impinge.

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