scholarly journals Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption

1999 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark W. Rosegrant ◽  
Nancy Leach ◽  
Roberta V. Gerpacio

Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extra-ordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural com-modities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative sce-narios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed coun-tries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strength-ening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries.

Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 2342
Author(s):  
Wangang Liu ◽  
Yiping Chen ◽  
Xinhua He ◽  
Ping Mao ◽  
Hanwen Tian

Global food insecurity is becoming more severe under the threat of rising global carbon dioxide concentrations, increasing population, and shrinking farmlands and their degeneration. We acquired the ISI Web of Science platform for over 31 years (1988–2018) to review the research on how climate change impacts global food security, and then performed cluster analysis and research hotspot analysis with VosViewer software. We found there were two drawbacks that exist in the current research. Firstly, current field research data were defective because they were collected from various facilities and were hard to integrate. The other drawback is the representativeness of field research site selection as most studies were carried out in developed countries and very few in developing countries. Therefore, more attention should be paid to developing countries, especially some African and Asian countries. At the same time, new modified mathematical models should be utilized to process and integrate the data from various facilities and regions. Finally, we suggested that governments and organizations across the world should be united to wrestle with the impact of climate change on food security.


Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2850
Author(s):  
Xiaoyu Jiang ◽  
Yangfen Chen ◽  
Jieyong Wang

(1) Background: COVID-19 has exacerbated global food security risks, and the global food supply chain, especially in developing countries, has become more vulnerable. (2) Methods: In this paper, we discussed the current security of global food, response measures, and potential impacts, and analyzed the characteristics and evolution of food security policies in four representative countries: China, Italy, Malawi, Argentina. (3) Results: The results showed that most countries give priority to ensuring food access. Most underdeveloped countries adopt humanitarian intervention measures such as food distribution and transfer payments, while developed countries tend to implement development intervention policies such as supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises and guaranteeing employment. (4) Conclusions: Despite the ample global supply, developing countries still face long-term food security risks, highlighting the importance of strengthening global food security governance and risk management. Finally, a food security risk response policy framework was built to provide suggestions for effectively handling COVID-19 and similar public health emergencies in the future.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9550
Author(s):  
Andi Syah Putra ◽  
Guangji Tong ◽  
Didit Okta Pribadi

Urbanization has become a global phenomenon that affects the food system. Some studies revealed that urbanization increases income/capita, thus transforming food consumption from cereals to animal products, vegetables, and fruits. Urbanization, particularly in developing countries, not only produces economic benefits but also various issues that might lessen peoples’ capacity to afford food. This study aims to analyze the impact of urbanization on food consumption, food composition, as well as farming performance. Series of consumption data since 1976 and statistical descriptive approaches were employed. The results showed a trend of declining the share of food expenditures, especially in urban areas, which is commonly regarded as a sign of increasing prosperity. Surprisingly, food composition remained stable, dominated by rice, due to lower-income and higher non-food expenditures of urban inhabitants mainly for housing, transportation, water and energy. The stagnancy of food composition provides less incentive for farmers; thus, farming is dominated by low-revenue paddy fields, uneducated laborers, and older farmers. Based on these findings, some recommendations can be suggested: (1) incorporating food composition and farming performance into food security policies, instead of merely focusing on the compliance of food supply and demand, (2) linking food issues with non-food issues, especially with urban planning, housing development, and transportation management to increase the income capacity of the society to purchase a greater variety of food, and (3) developing food diversification served by urban food vendors to support the benefits of the farming business.


1998 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 27-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Delgado ◽  
C. B. Courbois ◽  
M. W. Rosegrant

AbstractPeople in developed countries currently consume about three to four times as much meat and fish and five to six times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Meat, milk and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Yet poor people everywhere clearly desire to eat more animal protein products as their incomes rise above the poverty level and as they become urbanized. Growth in per capita consumption and production has in fact occurred in regions such as developing Asia and most particularly China. Per capita consumption of animal proteins and use of cereals for animal food in Asia have both grown in the 3 to 5% per annum range over the past 20 years. By 2020, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute's IMPACT model projections, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 47% currently to 63%. Of the global total projected increase in meat consumption, 40% is from pork, 30% is from poultry and 24% is from beef. The latter helps mitigate the otherwise much larger decline in real beef prices expected through 2020. Projected annual growth in meat consumption in China of 3.2% per annum through 2020, up from 8.3% per annum from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, drives these results.A rapidly expanding supply of feedgrains will be essential to achieving the desired production increases for livestock products without undue upwards pressure on grain prices, especially in view of the rôle of monogastrics and the relative increase in industrial production in developing countries. IMPACT projections under various technical and economic assumptions suggest that there is enough production supply response in world systems to accomplish these production increases smoothly. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of restrictions on China's ability to produce more feedgrains illustrates that in a system of linked global markets for cereals and livestock products, such restrictions are not effective at lowering Chinese livestock consumption, which is driven by global trade in manufactures, although they do lower Chinese livestock production. The resulting imbalance raises world food costs by one-third in 2020 over anticipated levels, encourages increased livestock exports from Latin America, discourages livestock exports from the USA and reduces meat and cereals imports and consumption in the poorer countries of Africa and Asia.


foresight ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Pinstrup‐Andersen ◽  
Marc J. Cohen

Although global food production has consistently kept pace with population growth, the gap between food production and demand in certain parts of the world is likely to remain. More than 800 million people in developing countries lack access to a minimally adequate diet. Continued productivity gains are essential on the supply side, because global population will increase by 73 million people a year over the next two decades. In this article we assess the current global food situation, look at the prospects through to the year 2020, and outline the policies needed to achieve food security for all. Emphasis is on the role that agricultural biotechnology might play in reaching this goal.


2018 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marton Demeter

In this research, we analyzed all 79 Web of Science (WoS) indexed journals in communication and media studies to disclose main publication patterns. We found that English-language countries dominate the field in a greater extent than in other disciplines, and developing countries are in a weaker position than English-language developed countries not just in natural sciences but also in soft sciences. We found significant correlations between the nominal GDP, the per capita publication, and per capita GDP of a given country and its publication scores.


Author(s):  
Stefan Tangermann

In the WTO's Doha Round, agriculture is again at center stage, even though it accounts for no more than a small and declining share of world trade. The Agreement on Agriculture concluded in the Uruguay Round was a huge step forward in the GATT's dealings with agriculture. But more needs to be done. In recent years, agricultural support in several developing countries has increased while developed countries have reformed their farm policies and improved market orientation. One specific problem in the Doha Round negotiations on agriculture is the treatment of public stockholding for food security purposes. A possible solution could come through an amendment of the rules for measuring domestic support, by agreeing that procurement prices below prices prevailing on international markets are not considered "administered prices".


In recent decades, calls for poverty alleviation have increased significantly in both developed and developing countries. Relatively, ICTs have been viewed as offering helpful tools for poverty reduction. This chapter investigates access to ICTs in the context of poverty, in both developed and developing countries. Based on a sample of 40 countries (20 developing and 20 developed countries), several statistical tests have been performed with promising results obtained. It is first shown that people in developing countries have less access to ICTs relative to those in developed countries. Second, it is also proven that the use of Internet is positively affected by the literacy rate within a country. The higher the literacy rate, the higher the number of Internet users in a country. The third result conveys that countries with higher GDP per capita ensure higher access to ICTs for their populations. Finally, this chapter proposes that populations of countries with higher poverty rates have less access to ICTs.


Author(s):  
Ekaterina Shirobokova ◽  
Fe Amor Parel Gudmundsson

Today, energy is an irreplaceable resource without which it is impossible to imagine the life of modern society. Oil, as the most important energy resource, has a significant impact on both individual economies and the world economy. The main objective of this chapter is to identify the relationship between oil supply and oil demand of developed and developing countries on the example of OECD and Former Soviet Union countries. The changes that took place in supply and demand in the oil market from 2000 to 2020 are investigated. The chapter uses graphic and mathematical analysis. It is clear with a fair amount of confidence that the oil demand in developed countries is higher than their supply, and the supply of oil in developing countries is rather more than demand. Also, the chapter draws attention to investments in the oil industry, including on the example of Russia as a former USSR country, analyzes their current state, and draws appropriate conclusions.


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