Induction Justified (But Just Barely)

Philosophy ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 58 (226) ◽  
pp. 481-488
Author(s):  
Ralph W. Clark
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Empirical Knowledge ◽  
The Past ◽  
Empirical World ◽  
Future Events

Hume's sceptical arguments regarding induction have not yet been successfully answered. However, I shall not in this paper discuss the important attempts to answer Hume since that would be too lengthy a task. On the supposition that Hume's sceptical arguments have not been met, the empirical world is a place where, as the popular metaphor goes, all the glue has been removed. For the Humean sceptic, the only empirical knowledge that we can have is given to us in immediate perception. We have no reason to believe that the patterns of future events will in any way resemble patterns of events in the present or past. We have no reason to believe even that present events not observed resemble present events that are observed, or that knowledge of past and present can be any guide in making new discoveries about what took place in the past. What we have is an ideal setting for the calculation of a priori probabilities. We have a field of distinct events having no logical or evidential ties to one another. The attempt to justify induction that I wish to present is an appeal to a priori probability.

scholarly journals A palace fit for the future: Desirability in temporal work

2021 ◽  
pp. 147612702110120
Author(s):  
Siavash Alimadadi ◽  
Andrew Davies ◽  
Fredrik Tell
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
The Past ◽  
Renewal Program ◽  
The Future ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Pluralistic Contexts

Research on the strategic organization of time often assumes that collective efforts are motivated by and oriented toward achieving desirable, although not necessarily well-defined, future states. In situations surrounded by uncertainty where work has to proceed urgently to avoid an impending disaster, however, temporal work is guided by engaging with both desirable and undesirable future outcomes. Drawing on a real-time, in-depth study of the inception of the Restoration and Renewal program of the Palace of Westminster, we investigate how organizational actors develop a strategy for an uncertain and highly contested future while safeguarding ongoing operations in the present and preserving the heritage of the past. Anticipation of undesirable future events played a crucial role in mobilizing collective efforts to move forward. We develop a model of future desirability in temporal work to identify how actors construct, link, and navigate interpretations of desirable and undesirable futures in their attempts to create a viable path of action. By conceptualizing temporal work based on the phenomenological quality of the future, we advance understanding of the strategic organization of time in pluralistic contexts characterized by uncertainty and urgency.

Church Time and Astrological Time in the Waning Middle Ages

2002 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 117-132
Author(s):  
Hilary M. Carey
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Adam And Eve ◽  
Primary Qualities ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Scientific Claims ◽  
To Come

Time, according to medieval theologians and philosophers, was experienced in radically different ways by God and by his creation. Indeed, the obligation to dwell in time, and therefore to have no sure knowledge of what was to come, was seen as one of the primary qualities which marked the post-lapsarian state. When Adam and Eve were cast out of the garden of delights, they entered a world afflicted with the changing of the seasons, in which they were obliged to work and consume themselves with the needs of the present day and the still unknown dangers of the next. Medieval concerns about the use and abuse of time were not merely confined to anxiety about the present, or awareness of seized or missed opportunities in the past. The future was equally worrying, in particular the extent to which this part of time was set aside for God alone, or whether it was permissible to seek to know the future, either through revelation and prophecy, or through science. In the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries, the scientific claims of astrology to provide a means to explain the outcome of past and future events, circumventing God’s distant authority, became more and more insistent. This paper begins by examining one skirmish in this larger battle over the control of the future.

Time and Truth: The Presentism-Eternalism Debate

Philosophy ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 84 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Stoneham
Keyword(s):  
Open Future ◽  
Equal Footing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Growing Block ◽  
The Open Future ◽  
Block Universe ◽  
The Way

AbstractThere are many questions we can ask about time, but perhaps the most fundamental is whether there are metaphysically interesting differences between past, present and future events. An eternalist believes in a block universe: past, present and future events are all on an equal footing. A gradualist believes in a growing block: he agrees with the eternalist about the past and the present but not about the future. A presentist believes that what is present has a special status. My first claim is that the familiar ways of articulating these views result in there being no substantive disagreement at all between the three parties. I then show that if we accept the controversial truthmaking principle, we can articulate a substantive disagreement. Finally, I apply this way of formulating the debate to related questions such as the open future and determinism, showing that these do not always line up in quite the way one would expect.

A posteriori

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul K. Moser
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Sensory Experience ◽  
A Priori Knowledge ◽  
Empirical Knowledge ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Critique Of Pure Reason ◽  
The Common ◽  
And Mathematics ◽  
Common Understanding ◽  
Priori Knowledge

A prominent term in theory of knowledge since the seventeenth century, ‘a posteriori’ signifies a kind of knowledge or justification that depends on evidence, or warrant, from sensory experience. A posteriori truth is truth that cannot be known or justified independently of evidence from sensory experience, and a posteriori concepts are concepts that cannot be understood independently of reference to sensory experience. A posteriori knowledge contrasts with a priori knowledge, knowledge that does not require evidence from sensory experience. A posteriori knowledge is empirical, experience-based knowledge, whereas a priori knowledge is non-empirical knowledge. Standard examples of a posteriori truths are the truths of ordinary perceptual experience and the natural sciences; standard examples of a priori truths are the truths of logic and mathematics. The common understanding of the distinction between a posteriori and a priori knowledge as the distinction between empirical and non-empirical knowledge comes from Kant’s Critique of Pure Reason (1781/1787).

Comparing the MLC and JavaNNS Approaches in Classifying Multi-Temporal LANDSAT Satellite Imagery over an Ephemeral River Area

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 83-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eufemia Tarantino ◽  
Antonio Novelli ◽  
Mariella Aquilino ◽  
Benedetto Figorito ◽  
Umberto Fratino
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Network Simulator ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Landsat Satellite

This paper analyzes two pixel-based classification approaches to support the analysis of land cover transformations based on multitemporal LANDSAT sensor data covering a time space of about 24 years. The research activity presented in this paper was carried out using Lama San Giorgio (Bari, Italy) catchment area as a study case, being this area prone to flooding as proved by its geological and hydrological characteristics and by the significant number of floods occurred in the past. Land cover classes were defined in accordance with on the CN method with the aim of characterizing land use based on attitude to generate runoff. Two different classifiers, i.e. Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) and Java Neural Network Simulator (JavaNNS) models, were compared. The Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approach was found to be the most reliable and efficient when lacking ground reference data and a priori knowledge on input data distribution.

scholarly journals Correlation based snapshot models of the archeomagnetic field

2020 ◽  
Vol 223 (1) ◽  
pp. 648-665
Author(s):  
S Mauerberger ◽  
M Schanner ◽  
M Korte ◽  
M Holschneider
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Geomagnetic Field ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Field Vector ◽  
Parametric Approach ◽  
Full Field ◽  
The Past ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Field Estimate

SUMMARY For the time stationary global geomagnetic field, a new modelling concept is presented. A Bayesian non-parametric approach provides realistic location dependent uncertainty estimates. Modelling related variabilities are dealt with systematically by making little subjective a priori assumptions. Rather than parametrizing the model by Gauss coefficients, a functional analytic approach is applied. The geomagnetic potential is assumed a Gaussian process to describe a distribution over functions. A priori correlations are given by an explicit kernel function with non-informative dipole contribution. A refined modelling strategy is proposed that accommodates non-linearities of archeomagnetic observables: First, a rough field estimate is obtained considering only sites that provide full field vector records. Subsequently, this estimate supports the linearization that incorporates the remaining incomplete records. The comparison of results for the archeomagnetic field over the past 1000 yr is in general agreement with previous models while improved model uncertainty estimates are provided.

scholarly journals Temporal processing of past and future autobiographical events in patients with schizophrenia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hédi Ben Malek ◽  
Arnaud D’Argembeau ◽  
Mélissa C. Allé ◽  
Nicolas Meyer ◽  
Jean-Marie Danion ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Processing ◽  
Temporal Order ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Temporal Information ◽  
Direct Access ◽  
Think Aloud ◽  
Event Representation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Future Events ◽  
The Times

Abstract People with schizophrenia experience difficulties in remembering their past and envisioning their future. However, while alterations of event representation are well documented, little is known about how personal events are located and ordered in time. Using a think-aloud procedure, we investigated which strategies are used to determine the times of past and future events in 30 patients with schizophrenia and 30 control participants. We found that the direct access to temporal information of important events was preserved in patients with schizophrenia. However, when events were not directly located in time, patients less frequently used a combination of strategies and partly relied on different strategies to reconstruct or infer the times of past and future events. In particular, they used temporal landmark events and contextual details (e.g., about places, persons, or weather conditions) less frequently than controls to locate events in time. Furthermore, patients made more errors when they were asked to determine the temporal order of the past and future events that had been previously dated. Together, these findings shed new light on the mechanisms involved in locating and ordering personal events in past and future times and their alteration in schizophrenia.

De Verwerving Van Morfologische Regels in Schrift (III)

1999 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 97-110
Author(s):  
Marjolein van Dort-Slijper ◽  
Gert Rijlaarsdam ◽  
Eva Breedveld
Keyword(s):  
Negative Transfer ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Recognition Task ◽  
Past Tense ◽  
Production Task ◽  
The Past ◽  
Verb Inflection ◽  
Group 6 ◽  
Special Case

In order to provide textbook authors with empirical data on the acquisition in Dutch of written morphology in nouns, verbs and adjectives, several empirical studies have been undertaken. In this article, the third study reports on the performance of the morpheme -e in a special case of adjectives in Dutch: the adjectives derived from participles. The study tries to determine the possible interference between the morphological rules for verb inflection (past tense) and adjective declension in reading and writing. Five classes of adjectives were distinguished according to order of relative difficulty established a priori. Subjects (n=157, grade 6, 7 and 8 from two schools) individually completed a compre-hension and a production task in which factors were systematically varied. Also a recognition test on the spelling of the past tense of verbs was administered. The results showed an effect of categories of verbal adjectives in the production task, but only for groups 7 and 8; group 6 was not sensitive to the differences between the categories. In the recognition task, no effect of type of adjective (verbal or normal) was found for groups 7 and 8; but for group 6, performance on verbal adjectives was lower for the three most difficult categories of adjectives. In the production task, all three groups performed lower on verbal adjectives than normal adjectives in the two most difficult categories of adjectives. It turned out that groups which acquired spelling rules for the past tense of verbs to a higher level, made more errors in the spelling of verbal adjectives, especially in the two categories of adjectives which related the strongest to the spelling of verbs. It was concluded that indications were found that negative transfer or interference is present. Authors recommend changing the order of phases in which spelling rules are trained: from 'adjective declension-verb inflection (past tense)-verbal adjective declension' to 'adjective declension (including verbal adjective declension)-verb declension (past tense).

Artificial Languages

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Reed Libert
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
A Priori ◽  
International Communication ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Natural Languages ◽  
Personal Projects ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Artificial Languages ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mixed Languages

Artificial languages—languages which have been consciously designed—have been created for more than 900 years, although the number of them has increased considerably in recent decades, and by the early 21st century the total figure probably was in the thousands. There have been several goals behind their creation; the traditional one (which applies to some of the best-known artificial languages, including Esperanto) is to make international communication easier. Some other well-known artificial languages, such as Klingon, have been designed in connection with works of fiction. Still others are simply personal projects. A traditional way of classifying artificial languages involves the extent to which they make use of material from natural languages. Those artificial languages which are created mainly by taking material from one or more natural languages are called a posteriori languages (which again include well-known languages such as Esperanto), while those which do not use natural languages as sources are a priori languages (although many a posteriori languages have a limited amount of a priori material, and some a priori languages have a small number of a posteriori components). Between these two extremes are the mixed languages, which have large amounts of both a priori and a posteriori material. Artificial languages can also be classified typologically (as natural languages are) and by how and how much they have been used. Many linguists seem to be biased against research on artificial languages, although some major linguists of the past have been interested in them.

scholarly journals Space Emerges from What We Know—Spatial Categorisations Induced by Information Constraints

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1179
Author(s):  
Nicola Catenacci Volpi ◽  
Daniel Polani
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Spatial Representations ◽  
Geometric Description ◽  
Location Error ◽  
Spatial Description ◽  
Successive Refinement ◽  
The Past ◽  
Natural Agents ◽  
Information Bottleneck ◽  
Biological Organisms

Seeking goals carried out by agents with a level of competency requires an “understanding” of the structure of their world. While abstract formal descriptions of a world structure in terms of geometric axioms can be formulated in principle, it is not likely that this is the representation that is actually employed by biological organisms or that should be used by biologically plausible models. Instead, we operate by the assumption that biological organisms are constrained in their information processing capacities, which in the past has led to a number of insightful hypotheses and models for biologically plausible behaviour generation. Here we use this approach to study various types of spatial categorizations that emerge through such informational constraints imposed on embodied agents. We will see that geometrically-rich spatial representations emerge when agents employ a trade-off between the minimisation of the Shannon information used to describe locations within the environment and the reduction of the location error generated by the resulting approximate spatial description. In addition, agents do not always need to construct these representations from the ground up, but they can obtain them by refining less precise spatial descriptions constructed previously. Importantly, we find that these can be optimal at both steps of refinement, as guaranteed by the successive refinement principle from information theory. Finally, clusters induced by these spatial representations via the information bottleneck method are able to reflect the environment’s topology without relying on an explicit geometric description of the environment’s structure. Our findings suggest that the fundamental geometric notions possessed by natural agents do not need to be part of their a priori knowledge but could emerge as a byproduct of the pressure to process information parsimoniously.

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