scholarly journals Markov Intertemporal Land Use Simulation Model

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce O. Burnham
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
Selection Of

The simulation model discussed in this paper evolved from problems encountered in estimating future United States cropland availability as part of the OBERS agricultural projection system. Available literature describing land use changes indicate that land resource economists have not been concerned with projecting future patterns of land use implied by historic observations.Some research has involved selection of optimum cropping patterns for agricultural cropland subject to alternative flood plain management policies. However, the broader application of such models between sectors (agriculture, industrial, urban, etc.), in the main, has been ignored. Because of “historical bias” there has not been a concerted effort to develop analytical capabilities for use in evaluating the future implications of alternative regional and/or national policies designed to alter trends in land use shifts.

Land take in the Italian Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Salata
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Ecological Compensation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Soil Sealing ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Land Use Decisions

Purpose – Land use change in the Alpine Regions is dominated by two main factors: a process of re-naturalization and a process of expansion for settlements with the relevant occupation of low-valley areas. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of land take measures in the Lombardy Alpine context and the recent proposals of spatial planning instruments for land resource management. New solutions to limit soil sealing have to be confronted with qualitative proposals at local scale. Design/methodology/approach – The paper collects different research outputs regarding land take in the Italian Alpine context and carried out by GIS software and tries to show the new methodologies available for limiting and mitigating soil sealing, in accordance with DIAMONT aims. Findings – The paper argues that the data are now available to analyze the problem and new operative methods have to be settled in the recent context of European Union (Soil Sealing Guidelines) to support decision making in planning, suggesting land use allocation and possible ecological compensation. Research limitations/implications – The new qualitative decision models have to be assessed for a better ecological integration in supporting land use decisions. Practical implications – An evaluation of land take at local scale caused by land use changes is a good support in the decision-making process of planning. Originality/value – In this paper a method based on a local scale is reported, which can be used for the specific assessment of land take in order to support land-use decisions.

scholarly journals A Multitarget Land Use Change Simulation Model Based on Cellular Automata and Its Application

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Jianchao Xi ◽  
Peng Xie ◽  
Chuang Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Mutual Transformation ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Simulation Accuracy ◽  
Model Based

Based on the analysis of the existing land use change simulation model, combined with macroland use change driving factors and microlocal land use competition, and through the application of Python language integrated technical approaches such as CA, GIS, AHP, and Markov, a multitarget land use change simulation model based on cellular automata(CA) is established. This model was applied to conduct scenario simulation of land use/cover change of the Jinzhou New District, based on 1:10000 map scale land use, planning, topography, statistics, and other data collected in the year of 1988, 2003, and 2012. The simulation results indicate the following: (1) this model can simulate the mutual transformation of multiple land use types in a relatively satisfactory way; it takes land use system as a whole and simultaneously takes the land use demand in the macrolevel and the land use suitability in the local scale into account; and (2) the simulation accuracy of the model reaches 72%, presenting higher creditability. The model is capable of providing auxiliary decision-making support for coastal regions with the analysis of the land use change driving mechanism, prediction of land use change tendencies, and establishment of land resource sustainable utilization policies.

Simulation Model Based on Agents for Land Use Change and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 107-114
Author(s):  
Armando Sánchez Vargas ◽  
D. Martínez Ventura ◽  
C. Gay García ◽  
A. L. Herrera Merino ◽  
Bernardo Olvera
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Management Policies

scholarly journals Pengaruh Perubahan Pola Ruang Terhadap Tingkat Resapan Air - Studi Kasus di Kecamatan Arjawinangun Kabupaten Cirebon

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (02) ◽  
pp. 58-67
Author(s):  
Achmad Firmansam Bastaman ◽  
Putra Arta Samodro
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Absorption ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Infiltration ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
The City ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Spatial Plan

The development of the city is very fast. Various socio-economic activities grow in line with the development of various human needs. The need for land to accommodate these various activities is difficult to avoid, so the city seems to be competing to build and consume the existing land. This condition has an impact on decreasing water absorption, thus threatening various disasters such as floods, the destruction of biodiversity, and drought, of course, the scarcity of clean water. Facing this phenomenon, the research examines the extent to which land use changes affect the level of water infiltration by calculating changes in the conservation index. This study takes the case in Arjawinangun Sub District. The selection of this location is solely due to the availability of data and the spatial plan that is currently being prepared whether it can become one of the parameters for changes in land use in the future.

scholarly journals LAND USE CHANGE AND RECOMMENDATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PEATLAND FOR AGRICULTURE: Case Study at Kubu Raya and Pontianak Districts, West Kalimantan

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahyunto Wahyunto ◽  
Wahyu Supriatna ◽  
Fahmuddin Agus
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Rubber Plantation ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Forest Protection ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Annual Crops ◽  
Ground Truthing

Peatland is an increasingly important land resource for livelihood,<br />economic development, and terrestrial carbon storage. Kubu Raya and Pontianak Districts of West Kalimantan rely their future agricultural development on this environmentally fragile peatland because of the dominance (58% and 16% area, respectively) of this land in the two districts. A study aimed to evaluate land use changes on peatland and to develop strategies for sustainable peatland use and management for agriculture. Time series satellite imageries of land use and land cover,<br />ground truthing, and statistical data of land use change were analyzed for generating the dynamics of land use changes in the period of 1986-2008. Field observation, peat sampling, and peat analyses of representative land use types were undertaken to assess peat characteristics and its agricultural suitability. The study showed that within 22 years (1986-2008), the area of peat forests in Kubu Raya and Pontianak Districts decreased as much as 13.6% from 391,902 ha to 328,078 ha. The current uses of the peatland in the two districts include oil palm plantation (8704 ha), smallholder rubber plantation (13,186 ha), annual crops (15,035 ha), mixed cropping of trees and annual crops (22,328 ha), and pineapple farming (11,744 ha). Our evaluation<br />showed unconformity of the current uses of peatland with regulations and crops agronomic requirements such as peat thickness and maturity, rendering unsustainability. This study recommends that expansion of agriculture and plantation on peatland areas be limited over idle land within the agricultural production and conversion production forest areas. About 34,362 ha (9.7%) of uncultivated log-over forest and shrubs<br />can potentially be developed for agriculture. Peat soils with the thickness of &gt;3 m should be allocated for conservation or forest protection due to low inherent soil fertility and high potential greenhouse gas emissions if converted for agriculture. <br />

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes in Lithuania

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Daiva Juknelienė ◽  
Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė ◽  
Jolanta Valčiukienė ◽  
Virginija Atkocevičienė ◽  
Gintautas Mozgeris
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Management Policies

The spatially explicit assessment of land use and land-use change patterns can identify critical areas and provide insights to improve land management policies and associated decisions. This study mapped the land uses and land-use changes in Lithuanian municipalities since 1971. Additionally, an analysis was conducted of three shorter periods, corresponding to major national land-use policy epochs. Data on land uses, available from the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected on an annual basis with the primary objective of conducting greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting and reporting for the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sectors, were explored. The overall trend in Lithuania during the last five decades has been an increase in the area of forest and built-up land and decrease in the area of producing land, meadow/pasture, wetlands, and other land uses. Nevertheless, the development trends for the proportions of producing land and meadow/pasture changed trajectories several times, and the breakpoints were linked with important dates in Lithuanian history and associated with the reorganization of land management and land-use relations. Global Moran’s I statistic and Anselin Local Moran’s I were used to check for global and local patterns in the distribution of land use in Lithuanian municipalities. The proportions of producing land and pasture/meadow remained spatially autocorrelated during the whole period analysed. Local spatial clusters and outliers were identified for all land-use types used in GHG inventories in the LULUCF sector at all the time points analysed. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to explain the land-use change trends during several historical periods due to differing land management policies, utilizing data from freely available databases as the regressors. The percentage of variance explained by the models ranged from 37 to 65, depending on the land-use type and the period in question.

The impact of catastrophic natural disaster on land-use changes of Qingping town and the selection of suitable land for settlement construction

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 827-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Yu ◽  
Shaoquan Liu ◽  
Shili Guo ◽  
Ying Hu ◽  
Zhijun Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Suitable Land

scholarly journals Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Chenchen Shi ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Zhihui Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Land Use Structure ◽  
Structure Changes

Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.

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