scholarly journals Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Chenchen Shi ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Zhihui Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Land Use Structure ◽  
Structure Changes

Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate and Land Use Changes Impacts on Land Degradation in the North China Plain

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihui Li ◽  
Xiangzheng Deng ◽  
Fang Yin ◽  
Cuiyuan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Land Quality ◽  
The North ◽  
The North China Plain ◽  
Land Improvement

Land degradation is a complex process which involves both the natural ecosystem and the socioeconomic system, among which climate and land use changes are the two predominant driving factors. To comprehensively and quantitatively analyze the land degradation process, this paper employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy to assess land degradation and further applied the binary panel logit regression model to analyze the impacts of the driving factors on land degradation in the North China Plain. The results revealed that an increase in rainfall and temperature would significantly and positively contribute to the land improvement, and conversion from cultivated land to grassland and forest land showed positive relationship with land improvement, while conversion to built-up area will lead to land degradation. Besides, human agricultural intensification represented by fertilizer utilization will help to improve the land quality. The economic development may exert positive impacts on land quality to alleviate land degradation, although the rural economic development and agricultural production will exert negative impacts on the land and lead to land degradation. Infrastructure construction would modify the land surface and further resulted in land degradation. The findings of the research will provide scientific information for sustainable land management.

Consequences of Land Use in an Intensive Region in North China Plain

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 1999-2002
Author(s):  
Jun Xia Yan ◽  
Jian Feng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landscape Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Soil Survey ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Sampling Locations ◽  
Natural Landscapes

Land use changes and land intensification has played a more and more important role in food production. The environment has been influenced by it greatly. Land use data were derived from several sources: aerial photographs, current land use maps, Second National Soil Survey (SNSS) map, and fieldwork. The aerial photographs, 1:50,000 for both 1980 and 2006 were obtained from the Department of Surveys and Mapping (DSM). Bulk soil samples were collected at 79 sites across Quzhou district. Samples were collected again at the same locations in 2000 and 2006. To compare the soil data of 2006, 2000 and 1980, latitude and longitude of the sampling locations were recorded using the Global Position System at the time of soil collection. The samples site selection was done on behalf of the Second National Soil Survey. A great change had taken place in land use and land use intensification. The changes, which have converted natural landscapes into the use for human, have made a large proportion of the Quhzou’s landscape change greatly.

scholarly journals Regional water cycle response to land use/cover change for a typical agricultural area, North China Plain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Li ◽  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Yongjun Lu ◽  
Mingming Song
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Urban Forest ◽  
Agricultural Area ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Cropland Area

Abstract Quantifying the influences of land use/cover (LULC) change on hydrological processes is important for rational utilization of water resources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of spatiotemporal LULC change on hydrological components in a typical agricultural area located in the North China Plain at both basin and sub-basin scales. LULC change was quantified, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was optimized using parameters associated with LULC conditions. We concluded that the urban and forest areas increased by 25.57 and 10.56%, with the cropland area decreased by 36.76%. About half of the surface runoff (SURQ) in the basin was generated from the urban area, with the SURQ increased significantly in the upstream and downstream of the basin where overlapped with urbanized areas. The proportions of evapotranspiration generated by cropland and forest areas increased slightly (0.89 and 0.55%, respectively), especially in sub-basins where the conversion of cropland to forest was obvious. Urban, forest, and cropland were the main types that generated water yield (WYLD). The proportion of WYLD generated on the urban area increased by 9.55% and decreased in other areas, which may be related to the combined effects of urbanization and forest reduction.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE LAND USE IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ECONOMIC APPROACH

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 27-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID HAIM ◽  
RALPH J. ALIG ◽  
ANDREW J. PLANTINGA ◽  
BRENT SOHNGEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Cropland Area ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Net Returns

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land-use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence.

scholarly journals Markov Intertemporal Land Use Simulation Model

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce O. Burnham
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
Selection Of

The simulation model discussed in this paper evolved from problems encountered in estimating future United States cropland availability as part of the OBERS agricultural projection system. Available literature describing land use changes indicate that land resource economists have not been concerned with projecting future patterns of land use implied by historic observations.Some research has involved selection of optimum cropping patterns for agricultural cropland subject to alternative flood plain management policies. However, the broader application of such models between sectors (agriculture, industrial, urban, etc.), in the main, has been ignored. Because of “historical bias” there has not been a concerted effort to develop analytical capabilities for use in evaluating the future implications of alternative regional and/or national policies designed to alter trends in land use shifts.

Land take in the Italian Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Salata
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Ecological Compensation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Soil Sealing ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Land Use Decisions

Purpose – Land use change in the Alpine Regions is dominated by two main factors: a process of re-naturalization and a process of expansion for settlements with the relevant occupation of low-valley areas. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of land take measures in the Lombardy Alpine context and the recent proposals of spatial planning instruments for land resource management. New solutions to limit soil sealing have to be confronted with qualitative proposals at local scale. Design/methodology/approach – The paper collects different research outputs regarding land take in the Italian Alpine context and carried out by GIS software and tries to show the new methodologies available for limiting and mitigating soil sealing, in accordance with DIAMONT aims. Findings – The paper argues that the data are now available to analyze the problem and new operative methods have to be settled in the recent context of European Union (Soil Sealing Guidelines) to support decision making in planning, suggesting land use allocation and possible ecological compensation. Research limitations/implications – The new qualitative decision models have to be assessed for a better ecological integration in supporting land use decisions. Practical implications – An evaluation of land take at local scale caused by land use changes is a good support in the decision-making process of planning. Originality/value – In this paper a method based on a local scale is reported, which can be used for the specific assessment of land take in order to support land-use decisions.

Relationship between land-use and sources and fate of nitrate in groundwater in a typical recharge area of the North China Plain

2017 ◽  
Vol 609 ◽  
pp. 607-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiqin Wang ◽  
Wenbo Zheng ◽  
Matthew Currell ◽  
Yonghui Yang ◽  
Huan Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Recharge Area ◽  
The North ◽  
The North China Plain
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