Priors For The Ar(1) Model: Parameterization Issues and Time Series Considerations

1994 ◽  
Vol 10 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 579-595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter C. Schotman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Identification Problem ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Singularity Problem ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Autoregressive Parameter ◽  
Structural Parameterization ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

Two issues have come up in the specification of a prior in the Bayesian analysis of time series with possible unit roots. The first issue deals with the singularity that is due to the local identification problem of the unconditional mean of an AR(1) process in the limit of a random walk. This singularity problem is related to the difference between a structural parameterization and the linear reduced form in a standard regression model with fixed regressors. The second is related to the time series nature of the regressor in an AR(1) model. In this paper we will concentrate on the parameterization issue. First, it is shown that the posterior of the autoregressive parameter can be very sensitive to the degree of prior dependence between the unconditional mean and the autocorrelation parameter. Second, the time series nature of the problem suggests a particular form of this dependence.

TIME-SERIES-BASED ECONOMETRICS

1998 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-378
Author(s):  
In Choi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Made In ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

Since the influential work by Nelson and Plosser (1982) and Engle and Granger (1987), many new and exciting developments have been made in the analysis of time series involving autoregressive unit roots. Hatanaka (1996; hereafter HT) reviewed the literature on unit roots and cointegration up to 1994 and provided new perspectives on this research area.

Correlation in the heart rate data

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 141-148
Author(s):  
J. Ulbikas ◽  
A. Čenys ◽  
D. Žemaitytė ◽  
G. Varoneckas
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Experimental Data ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cardiovascular Function ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Heart Rate Data ◽  
Dynamical Nature ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

Variety of methods of nonlinear dynamics have been used for possibility of an analysis of time series in experimental physiology. Dynamical nature of experimental data was checked using specific methods. Statistical properties of the heart rate have been investigated. Correlation between of cardiovascular function and statistical properties of both, heart rate and stroke volume, have been analyzed. Possibility to use a data from correlations in heart rate for monitoring of cardiovascular function was discussed.

EVALUASI PROYEKSI DEMAND BARANG DAN PENUMPANG PELABUHAN DI PROVINSI MALUKU

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Adrian Firdaus ◽  
M. Dwi Yoga Sutanto ◽  
Rajin Sihombing ◽  
M. Weldy Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Port Development ◽  
Loading And Unloading ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Existing Data

Abstract Every port in Indonesia must have a Port Master Plan that contains an integrated port development plan. This study discusses one important aspect in the preparation of the Port Master Plan, namely the projected movement of goods and passengers, which can be used as a reference in determining the need for facilities at each stage of port development. The case study was conducted at a port located in a district in Maluku Province and aims to evaluate the analysis of projected demand for goods and passengers occurring at the port. The projection method used is time series and econometric projection. The projection results are then compared with the existing data in 2018. The results of this study show that the econometric projection gives adequate results in predicting loading and unloading activities as well as the number of passenger arrival and departure in 2018. This is indicated by the difference in the percentage of projection results towards the existing data, which is smaller than 10%. Whereas for loading and unloading activities, time series projections with logarithmic trends give better results than econometric projections. Keywords: port, port master plan, port development, unloading activities  Abstrak Setiap pelabuhan di Indonesia harus memiliki sebuah Rencana Induk Pelabuhan yang memuat rencana pengem-bangan pelabuhan secara terpadu. Studi ini membahas salah satu aspek penting dalam penyusunan Rencana Induk Pelabuhan, yaitu proyeksi pergerakan barang dan penumpang, yang dapat dipakai sebagai acuan dalam penentuan kebutuhan fasilitas di setiap tahap pengembangan pelabuhan. Studi kasus dilakukan pada sebuah pelabuhan yang terletak di sebuah kabupaten di Provinsi Maluku dan bertujuan untuk melakukan evaluasi ter-hadap analisis proyeksi demand barang dan penumpang yang terjadi di pelabuhan tersebut. Metode proyeksi yang dipakai adalah proyeksi deret waktu dan ekonometrik. Hasil proyeksi selanjutnya dibandingkan dengan data eksisting tahun 2018. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa proyeksi ekonometrik memberikan hasil yang cukup baik dalam memprediksi aktivitas bongkar barang serta jumlah penumpang naik dan turun di tahun 2018. Hal ini diindikasikan dengan selisih persentase hasil proyeksi terhadap data eksisting yang lebih kecil dari 10%. Sedangkan untuk aktivitas muat barang, proyeksi deret waktu dengan tren logaritmik memberikan hasil yang lebih baik daripada proyeksi ekonometrik. Kata-kata kunci: pelabuhan, rencana induk pelabuhan, pengembangan pelauhan, aktivitas bongkar barang

scholarly journals Interpretation of the Chemical and Physical Time-Series Retrieved from Sentik Glacier, Ladakh Himalaya, India

1984 ◽  
Vol 30 (104) ◽  
pp. 66-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Mayewski ◽  
W. Berry Lyons ◽  
N. Ahmad ◽  
Gordon Smith ◽  
M. Pourchet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Reactive Iron ◽  
Physical Time ◽  
Ladakh Himalaya ◽  
Data Density ◽  
Mass Circulation ◽  
The Himalaya ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

AbstractSpectral analysis of time series of a c. 17 ± 0.3 year core, calibrated for total ß activity recovered from Sentik Glacier (4908m) Ladakh, Himalaya, yields several recognizable periodicities including subannual, annual, and multi-annual. The time-series, include both chemical data (chloride, sodium, reactive iron, reactive silicate, reactive phosphate, ammonium, δD, δ(18O) and pH) and physical data (density, debris and ice-band locations, and microparticles in size grades 0.50 to 12.70 μm). Source areas for chemical species investigated and general air-mass circulation defined from chemical and physical time-series are discussed to demonstrate the potential of such studies in the development of paleometeorological data sets from remote high-alpine glacierized sites such as the Himalaya.

279 WACSAW: A Statistical and Individually Adaptive Method to Determine Sleep and Wakefulness from Activity

SLEEP ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. A111-A112
Author(s):  
Austin Vandegriffe ◽  
V A Samaranayake ◽  
Matthew Thimgan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Optimal Transport ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Adaptive Method ◽  
Wasserstein Distance ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Commercial Grade ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Levene Test

Abstract Introduction Technological innovations have broadened the type and amount of activity data that can be captured in the home and under normal living conditions. Yet, converting naturalistic activity patterns into sleep and wakefulness states has remained a challenge. Despite the successes of current algorithms, they do not fill all actigraphy needs. We have developed a novel statistical approach to determine sleep and wakefulness times, called the Wasserstein Algorithm for Classifying Sleep and Wakefulness (WACSAW), and validated the algorithm in a small cohort of healthy participants. Methods WACSAW functional routines: 1) Conversion of the triaxial movement data into a univariate time series; 2) Construction of a Wasserstein weighted sum (WSS) time series by measuring the Wasserstein distance between equidistant distributions of movement data before and after the time-point of interest; 3) Segmenting the time series by identifying changepoints based on the behavior of the WSS series; 4) Merging segments deemed similar by the Levene test; 5) Comparing segments by optimal transport methodology to determine the difference from a flat, invariant distribution at zero. The resulting histogram can be used to determine sleep and wakefulness parameters around a threshold determined for each individual based on histogram properties. To validate the algorithm, participants wore the GENEActiv and a commercial grade actigraphy watch for 48 hours. The accuracy of WACSAW was compared to a detailed activity log and benchmarked against the results of the output from commercial wrist actigraph. Results WACSAW performed with an average accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of >95% compared to detailed activity logs in 10 healthy-sleeping individuals of mixed sexes and ages. We then compared WACSAW’s performance against a common wrist-worn, commercial sleep monitor. WACSAW outperformed the commercial grade system in each participant compared to activity logs and the variability between subjects was cut substantially. Conclusion The performance of WACSAW demonstrates good results in a small test cohort. In addition, WACSAW is 1) open-source, 2) individually adaptive, 3) indicates individual reliability, 4) based on the activity data stream, and 5) requires little human intervention. WACSAW is worthy of validating against polysomnography and in patients with sleep disorders to determine its overall effectiveness. Support (if any):

Multiscale Mutual Mode Entropy Based Coupling Analysis of Alpha Rhythm Electroencephalogram

2014 ◽  
Vol 574 ◽  
pp. 718-722
Author(s):  
Ning Ji ◽  
Jun Tan ◽  
An Shan Pei ◽  
Jia Fei Dai ◽  
Jun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Clinical Evaluation ◽  
Brain Function ◽  
Alpha Rhythm ◽  
Physiological Status ◽  
Noise Resistance ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Coupling Analysis ◽  
Scale Change ◽  
The Difference

This paper presents the Multiscale Mutual Mode Entropy algorithm to quantify the coupling degree between two alpha rhythm EEG time series which are simultaneously acquired. The results show that in the process of scale change, the young and middle-aged differ from each other in terms of the coupling degree of alpha rhythm EEG and the difference grow clear gradually. So the Multiscale Mutual Mode Entropy can be used to analyze the coupling information of time series under different physiological status, and it also has good noise resistance. Besides, as an indicator of measuring brain function, in the future it can also come to the aid of clinical evaluation of brain function.

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