Longitudinal Collision Risk for ATC Track Systems: A Hazardous Event Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Brooker

This paper presents a collision risk model and operational concepts for longitudinal separated aircraft in the North Atlantic Region air traffic control track system, and indicates how it might be used to reduce separation minima safely, and hence deliver cost savings. It is an event-based model: it is easy to see what is being assumed, to understand the role of the main parameters, and to incorporate collision detection and hazard analysis. A potential future operation, with a 7-minute separation and a strategic lateral offset system, is sketched using the model.

1984 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-124
Author(s):  
S. Nagaoka

The mathematical collision risk model developed by Reich can be used for evaluating the current air traffic control (ATC) separation minima. This model requires such parameters as volume of traffic, navigational errors of aircraft and the structure of routes. The navigational errors are closely related to the probability of overlap, which is one of the most important parameters for the model.Distributions of navigational errors have been studied by many researchers since the advent of the collision risk model. Because data collection on the navigational errors in the vertical dimension is expensive and time-consuming, there are few examples of observed data. Thus, at present, data on the probability of overlap in the vertical dimension are not available in a large enough sample to derive any conclusions.


Author(s):  
Lili Wang ◽  
Shengnan Lu ◽  
Fang Wei

Beijing Capital International Airport is one of the busiest hub airports in the world, but its capacity is limited. Reducing the minimum radar interval during instrument approaches would be feasible to increase capacity. The airport has three parallel runways; the distance between runways 36L/18R and 01/19 is 3.485 km. Currently, because there is no final monitoring seat, the dependent parallel instrument approach mode is adopted on the two runways; approaching aircraft must maintain a 4 km safety separation. This paper focuses on whether the 4 km radar safety separation for parallel instrument approaches could be reduced to 3.485 km without the final monitoring. This would mean implementing independent instrument approach operations between the two runways. To consider this, a new collision risk model based on position error probability and aircraft kinematics is proposed. A test program to acquire data on controllers’ reaction times in abnormal situations was designed and implemented over 10 days by the North China Air Traffic Management Bureau (ATMB). Furthermore, six months of radar trajectory data was collected at the airport. This was analyzed and processed to obtain the position error, speed, and other parameters required for the calculation of the collision risk model. The results show that the independent instrument approach operations between runways 36L/18R and 01/19 would be feasible the within safety target level set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICO). Based on the theoretical research results, the North China ATCB implemented independent instrument approaches between runways 36L/18R and 01/19 on December 25, 2018; it has operated safely since.


1979 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Brooker

Every day several hundred subsonic aircraft travel between the European and North American continents. Because of noise limitations at major airports, aircraft turn-around times and the time difference between the continents, the direction of the main traffic flow changes through the day. In the afternoon (GMT) the flow is predominantly westbound, while in the early hours of the morning the flow is predominantly eastbound. Oceanic air traffic control for the North Atlantic region has evolved into what is now known as the Organized Track System; traffic is divided into streams, each stream flying at a specified set of flight levels on one of several adjacent tracks. Figure 1 shows an example of the subsonic track system during the westbound peak. To secure operating economy the layout of the track system on any day is matched to the pattern of the upper winds.


1984 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-216
Author(s):  
Sakae Nagaoka

A mathematical collision risk model can be used for evaluating air traffic control (ATC) separation standards. As one of the parameters required for calculating the expected number of collisions by this model, the probability of overlap in the vertical dimension based on height-keeping errors of aircraft must be estimated.However, there are few examples of empirical data on height-keeping errors because data collection is expensive and time-consuming. In order to collect these data, the author et al. started data collection using a newly developed simple height-finding radar, the navigation accuracy measurement system (NAMS) which has been installed under a trunk airway in Japan.


1986 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 416-423
Author(s):  
Sakae Nagaoka

Mathematical collision risk models, e.g. the Reich (1966) model, may be useful for evaluating the safety of air traffic control systems. The model requires parameters associated with the navigational errors of aircraft. Among navigational errors the distribution of height-keeping errors (HKE) is of great interest for evaluating the feasibility of reducing the current 2000 ft vertical separation standard above flight level 290 (29000 ft). The distribution is closely related to the probability of vertical overlap which is a key parameter of the collision risk model.


2003 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Brooker

A model is developed for lateral collision risk in air traffic track systems, which resolves the problems of the Reich Model. It is a direct and concrete approach focusing on events, in contrast to Reich's synthetic methodology, in which (e.g.) three types of collision have to be modelled and the focus is on flying hours spent away from the planned flight path. This model makes it straightforward to see what is being assumed, and easy to understand the roles of the main parameters. It is a good starting point for the incorporation of collision detection and the use of hazard analysis.


1993 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liz Davies ◽  
Andrew Sharpe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathrine Mehus ◽  
Vijay Kumar Keerthivasan ◽  
Tom Rune Koløy ◽  
Dustin Young ◽  
Tore Sørheim

Abstract A toe initiation sleeve is a tool installed in the toe of a completion liner and is used to establish a flowpath to the reservoir without the use of intervention. Conventional toe initiation sleeves require either intervention or increasing pressure to higher than the liner test pressure to activate. These methods have inherent cost and operational risks. This paper will present the development, qualification, and deployment of a multicycle, time-delay cementable toe initiation sleeve that allows for interventionless activation without exceeding the liner test pressure. This development greatly improves operational efficiency and eliminates risk associated with conventional toe initiation sleeves. A major operator in the North Sea required an ISO V0 rated toe initiation sleeve to be developed and qualified. Design criteria for the tool was identified, and the design was developed based on field-qualified seal technology. Individual component and full-scale validation testing was performed to complete the product qualification, followed by field trials in 2019. With its unique time-delay feature, the newly developed ATS (Advanced Toe Sleeve) allows for an unlimited number of pressure cycles to be performed while also keeping the well V0 barrier in place, and activates at below liner test pressure. This paper will discuss the technology development and implementation project, resulting in ISO 14998 V0-qualified cemented ATS being installed in nearly 40 wells in the same field. This paper will also provide insight into how the ATS provides unique benefits to the operator during various phases of the well's life. Cementing: One moving part and opening sleeve isolated from the inside diameter (ID) allow for pumping darts through the ATS without the risk of opening Setting liner/testing liner: Time-delay features allow for setting liner and testing the liner at higher pressures than ATS opening pressure. Well cleanup/displacing to lower density fluid: Time-delay function allows for opening the ATS at lower pressure than the well has seen during previous operations. Completion: ATS design and qualification grade reduce completion steps and costs for the operator. Stimulation: ATS eliminates the need for intervention, reducing the operational steps and costs for the operator. The advanced toe sleeve with built-in time-delay features maintains the liner integrity throughout the various well operations. The number of available pressure cycles can be predetermined, and the activation of the various cycles can be precisely controlled thereby also controlling when the tool is activated to achieve injectivity. This paper will present the development and field-wide implementation of the ATS technology, which has rapidly gained operator acceptance and resulted in significant time and cost savings.


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