scholarly journals Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: a model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future – CORRIGENDUM

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (8) ◽  
pp. 1651-1651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. GAO ◽  
J. G. WOOD ◽  
H. F. GIDDING ◽  
A. T. NEWALL ◽  
R. I. MENZIES ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Infant Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Future ◽  
Catch Up

scholarly journals Spreading Predictability in Complex Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Jian Wang ◽  
Yong Yu ◽  
Junyan Zhao ◽  
Duanbing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Complex Networks ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rumor Control

Abstract Many state-of-the-art researches focus on predicting infection scale or threshold in infectious diseases or rumor and give the vaccination strategies correspondingly. In these works, most of them assume that the infected probability and initially infected individuals are known at the very beginning. Generally, infectious diseases or rumor has been spreading for some time when it is noticed. How to predict which individuals will be infected in the future only by knowing the current snapshot becomes a key issue in infectious diseases or rumor control. In this paper, a prediction model based on snapshot is presented to predict the potentially infected individuals in the future. Experimental results on synthetic and real networks demonstrate that the predicted infected individuals have rather consistency with the actual infected ones.

scholarly journals Spreading predictability in complex networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Jian Wang ◽  
Yong Yu ◽  
Jun-Yan Zhao ◽  
Duan-Bing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Complex Networks ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Good Consistency ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rumor Control

AbstractMany state-of-the-art researches focus on predicting infection scale or threshold in infectious diseases or rumor and give the vaccination strategies correspondingly. In these works, most of them assume that the infection probability and initially infected individuals are known at the very beginning. Generally, infectious diseases or rumor has been spreading for some time when it is noticed. How to predict which individuals will be infected in the future only by knowing the current snapshot becomes a key issue in infectious diseases or rumor control. In this report, a prediction model based on snapshot is presented to predict the potentially infected individuals in the future, not just the macro scale of infection. Experimental results on synthetic and real networks demonstrate that the infected individuals predicted by the model have good consistency with the actual infected ones based on simulations.

The internal structure of evidentiality in Romance

2001 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Squartini
Keyword(s):  
Internal Structure ◽  
Romance Languages ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Future

This article discusses the evidential uses of the Future, Conditional and Indicative Imperfect in various Romance languages (mostly French, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish) and the semantic factors that underlie the choice between them. The Romance data are used as a background for an evaluation of proposed taxonomies of evidentiality (Willett 1988; Frawley 1992; Botne 1997). It is shown that Willett’s model, based on the primary distinction direct vs. indirect type of evidence, is better suited to account for evidentiality in Romance, while the notion of source should be considered as independently interacting with the type of evidence/mode of knowing.

Structural and Hydraulic Design of Mechanical Pump Using in LBE Test Loop

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 190-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Gao ◽  
Min Guan Yang ◽  
Xin Kai Sun ◽  
Ning Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Hydraulic Model ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Hydraulic Design ◽  
Test Loop ◽  
The Future ◽  
Mechanical Pump ◽  
Cfd Method ◽  
Design Ideas

In order to design a mechanical pump that can satisfy the special requirements of the LBE test loop, structural and hydraulic design ideas were discussed in this paper. A new vertical centrifugal submerged pump was proposed, including installation and hydraulic model. Based on the provided parameter, hydraulic design of the pump has been done by CFD method. Velocity caused erosion problem was considered primarily in the design process. It is helpful for the future design of pumps in various loops and ADS.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 553-567
Author(s):  
S. M. Niaz Arifin ◽  
Christoph Zimmer ◽  
Caroline Trotter ◽  
Anaïs Colombini ◽  
Fati Sidikou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Infant Vaccination ◽  
Important Health ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Routine Infant

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%–75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81–$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

scholarly journals A Model to Manage Crude Palm Oil Production System

2019 ◽  
Vol 255 ◽  
pp. 02001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inyang John ◽  
Andrew-Munot Magdalene ◽  
Syed Shazali Syed Tarmizi ◽  
Johnathan Tanjong Shirley
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Production System ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Future

This paper reviews key production process for crude palm oil and highlights factors that highly influence the production of crude palm oil. This paper proposes a generic conceptual model for crude palm production process considering these factors. The conceptual model could be modified to consider other factors not included in this paper. The future research would be to construct a simulation model based on the conceptual model proposed in this paper and analyse the effect of these factors on the performance of crude palm oil production system.

An age-structured model of the human papillomavirus dynamics and optimal vaccine control

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (06) ◽  
pp. 1750083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo’tassem Al-Arydah ◽  
Tufail Malik
Keyword(s):  
Human Papillomavirus ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations ◽  
Structured Model ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Hpv Types ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Age Structured Model

We formulate an age-structured model based on a system of nonlinear partial differential equations to assist the early and catch up female vaccination programs for human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6 and 11. Since these HPV types do not induce permanent immunity, the model, which stratifies the population based on age and gender, has a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) structure. We calculate the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] for the model and describe the local-asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium using [Formula: see text]. We prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium for [Formula: see text] for the no vaccine case. However, analysis of the model for the vaccine case reveals that it undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. To support our theoretical results, we estimate the age and time solution with the given data for Toronto population, when an early and catch up female vaccine program is adopted, and when there is no vaccine. We show that early and catch up female vaccine program eliminates the infection in both male and female populations over a period of 30 years. Finally, we introduce the optimal control to an age-dependent model based on ordinary differential equations and solve it numerically to obtain the most cost-effective method for introducing the catch up vaccine into the population.

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