scholarly journals Updated modelling of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Kalkowska ◽  
M. A. Pallansch ◽  
K. M. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Oral Poliovirus Vaccine ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Future Risk

Abstract Conditions and evidence continue to evolve related to the prediction of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters, which affect assumptions related to forecasting risks and evaluating potential risk management options. Multiple recent reviews provided information about individual iVDPV excreters, but inconsistencies among the reviews raise some challenges. This analysis revisits the available evidence related to iVDPV excreters and provides updated model estimates that can support future risk management decisions. The results suggest that the prevalence of iVDPV excreters remains highly uncertain and variable, but generally confirms the importance of managing the risks associated with iVDPV excreters throughout the polio endgame in the context of successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine use.

Individualized Survival Curves Improve Satisfaction With Cancer Risk Management Decisions in Women With BRCA1/2 Mutations

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (36) ◽  
pp. 9319-9328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Armstrong ◽  
Barbara Weber ◽  
Peter A. Ubel ◽  
Nikki Peters ◽  
John Holmes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Ovarian Cancer Risk ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Alternative Management ◽  
Decision Satisfaction ◽  
Cancer Risk Management

Purpose Women with BRCA1/2 mutations are faced with complex decisions about breast and ovarian cancer risk management. This study was conducted to determine the effect of a tailored decision support system (DSS) that provides individualized survival and cancer incidence curves specific to expected outcomes of alternative management strategies. Patients and Methods This was a double-blind, randomized controlled trial of 32 women with BRCA1/2 mutations. Primary outcome measures were decision satisfaction, cancer anxiety, perceptions of cancer risk given alternative management strategies, and management decisions. Results Twenty-seven women completed a 6-week follow-up. Women in the intervention arm (n = 13) reported significantly higher decision satisfaction at follow-up than women in the control arm (n = 14; adjusted mean difference, 9.7; P < .0005). The effect of the DSS was greater among women with low cancer anxiety at baseline than women with high cancer anxiety at baseline (P = .01 for interaction). However, the DSS did not significantly alter cancer anxiety at follow-up, perceptions of cancer risk given alternative management strategies, or management decisions. Conclusion The presentation of individualized survival and incidence curves for alternative management options improves satisfaction about cancer risk management decisions among women with BRCA1/2 mutations without increasing anxiety or changing management decisions. The benefit of the DSS is greatest among women with relatively low cancer-related anxiety at baseline.

scholarly journals Comprehensive screening for immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus: an essential oral poliovirus vaccine cessation risk management strategy

2016 ◽  
Vol 145 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. DUINTJER TEBBENS ◽  
K. M. THOMPSON
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Oral Poliovirus Vaccine ◽  
Antiviral Drugs ◽  
Risk Management Strategy ◽  
The World ◽  
Expected Benefits

SUMMARYIf the world can successfully control all outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus that may occur soon after global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation, then immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived polioviruses (iVDPVs) from rare and mostly asymptomatic long-term excretors (defined as ⩾6 months of excretion) will become the main source of potential poliovirus outbreaks for as long as iVDPV excretion continues. Using existing models of global iVDPV prevalence and global long-term poliovirus risk management, we explore the implications of uncertainties related to iVDPV risks, including the ability to identify asymptomatic iVDPV excretors to treat with polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) and the transmissibility of iVDPVs. The expected benefits of expanded screening to identify and treat long-term iVDPV excretors with PAVDs range from US$0.7 to 1.5 billion with the identification of 25–90% of asymptomatic long-term iVDPV excretors, respectively. However, these estimates depend strongly on assumptions about the transmissibility of iVDPVs and model inputs affecting the global iVDPV prevalence. For example, the expected benefits may decrease to as low as US$260 million with the identification of 90% of asymptomatic iVDPV excretors if iVDPVs behave and transmit like partially reverted viruses instead of fully reverted viruses. Comprehensive screening for iVDPVs will reduce uncertainties and maximize the expected benefits of PAVD use.

Beyond choice architecture: a building code for structuring climate risk management decisions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
JOSEPH ÁRVAI ◽  
ROBIN GREGORY
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Choice Architecture ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management

Abstract Although the need for urgent climate change action is clear, insights about how to make better climate risk management decisions are limited. While significant attention from behavioral researchers has focused on choice architecture, we argue that many of the contexts for addressing climate risks require increased attention to the needs of a deliberative and dynamic choice environment. A key facet of this kind of decision is the need for decision-makers and stakeholders to identify and balance conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. This recognition of difficult, context-specific trade-offs highlights the need for structuring the decision-making process so that objectives are clearly articulated and prioritized. Equally, policy analyses and deliberations must effectively link priorities with climate risk management options. This restructuring of decision-making about climate change calls for more than a nudge. Scientific and technical efforts must be redirected to help stakeholders and decision-makers better understand the diverse implications of climate change management alternatives and to become better equipped to take actions commensurate with the urgency of the problem.

scholarly journals A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0)

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 1791-1802
Author(s):  
Peiyan Chen ◽  
Hui Yu ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jiajie Xin ◽  
Yi Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Current Version ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Chinese Mainland ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractA dataset entitled “A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland” (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TCinduced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration’s tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts.

Stock Market Development And Economic Growth in Nigeria

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Anyanwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Corporate Control ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Long Run

Is the stock market development important for economic growth in Nigeria? One line of research argues that it is not; another line stresses the importance of stock market development in allocating capital, acquisition of information about firms, easing risk management, mobilization of savings, and exerting corporate control. Indeed, some theories provide a conceptual framework for the belief that larger, more efficient stock markets boost economic growth. This article examines whether there is a strong empirical association between Nigerian stock market development and long-run economic growth. Our empirical results suggest that the Nigerian stock market development is positively and strongly associated with long-term economic growth. This implies that Nigerian policymakers should make concerted efforts at removing obstacles to stock market development while creating and sustaining an enabling macroeconomic and political environment for the market’s development.

scholarly journals Assessment of Potential Risk Factors and Skin Ultrasound Presentation Associated with Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema in Long-Term Breast Cancer Survivors

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1303
Author(s):  
Khairunnisa’ Md Yusof ◽  
Kelly A. Avery-Kiejda ◽  
Shafinah Ahmad Suhaimi ◽  
Najwa Ahmad Zamri ◽  
Muhammad Ehsan Fitri Rusli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cancer Survivors ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Breast Cancer Survivors ◽  
Ultrasound Examination ◽  
Arm Circumference ◽  
Potential Risk Factors ◽  
Breast Cancer Related Lymphedema

Breast cancer has been reported to have the highest survival rate among various cancers. However, breast cancer survivors face several challenges following breast cancer treatment including breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), sexual dysfunction, and psychological distress. This study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors of BCRL in long term breast cancer survivors. A total of 160 female breast cancer subjects were recruited on a voluntary basis and arm lymphedema was assessed through self-reporting of diagnosis, arm circumference measurement, and ultrasound examination. A total of 33/160 or 20.5% of the women developed BCRL with significantly higher scores for upper extremity disability (37.14 ± 18.90 vs. 20.08 ± 15.29, p < 0.001) and a lower score for quality of life (103.91 ± 21.80 vs. 115.49 ± 16.80, p = 0.009) as compared to non-lymphedema cases. Univariate analysis revealed that multiple surgeries (OR = 5.70, 95% CI: 1.21–26.8, p < 0.001), axillary lymph nodes excision (>10) (OR = 2.83, 95% CI: 0.94–8.11, p = 0.047), being overweight (≥25 kg/m2) (OR = 2.57, 95% CI: 1.04 – 6.38, p = 0.036), received fewer post-surgery rehabilitation treatment (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.05–5.39, p = 0.036) and hypertension (OR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.01–5.62, p = 0.043) were associated with an increased risk of BCRL. Meanwhile, multivariate analysis showed that multiple surgeries remained significant and elevated the likelihood of BCRL (OR = 5.83, 95% CI: 1.14–29.78, p = 0.034). Arm swelling was more prominent in the forearm area demonstrated by the highest difference of arm circumference measurement when compared to the upper arm (2.07 ± 2.48 vs. 1.34 ± 1.91 cm, p < 0.001). The total of skinfold thickness of the affected forearm was also significantly higher than the unaffected arms (p < 0.05) as evidenced by the ultrasound examination. The continuous search for risk factors in specific populations may facilitate the development of a standardized method to reduce the occurrence of BCRL and provide better management for breast cancer patients.

Enterprise risk management and sustainability of banks performance

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babajide Oyewo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Enterprise Risk Management ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Banking Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Enterprise Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates firm attributes (namely level of capitalisation, scope of operation, organisational structure, organisational lifecycle, systemic importance and size) affecting the robustness of enterprise risk management (ERM) practice, the extent to which ERM affects the performance of banks and the impact of ERM on the long-term sustainability of banks in Nigeria. This was against the backdrop that the 2012 banking reform was a major regulatory intervention that mainstreamed ERM in the Nigerian banking sector.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a mixed methodology of content, trend and quantitative analyses. Ex post facto research design was deployed to analyse performance differential of banks, with respect to the implementation of ERM, over a 10-year period (2008–2017). A disclosure checklist developed from the COSO ERM integrated framework was used to assess the robustness of ERM by content-analysing divulgence on risk management in published annual reports. The banking reform periods were dichotomised into pre- (2008–2012) and post- (2013–2017) reform periods. Jonckheere–Terpstra test, independent sample t-test and Mann–Whitney test were applied to analyse a total of 1,036 firm-year observations over the period 2008–2017.FindingsResult shows that bank attributes significantly affecting the robustness of risk management practice are level of capitalisation, scope of operation, systemic importance and size. Performance of banks improved slightly during the post-2012 banking reform period. This suggests that as banks consolidate on the gains of ERM, benefits of the regulatory policy on risk management may be realised in the long run. Result also shows that ERM enhances long-term performance, connoting that effective risk management could serve as a competitive strategy for surviving turbulence that typically characterises the banking sector.Practical implicationsThe emergence of level of capitalisation, scope of operation, systemic importance and size as determinants of ERM provides empirical evidence to support the practice of reviewing the capital requirements for banking business from time to time by regulatory authorities (i.e. recapitalisation policy) as a strategy for managing systemic risk. Top management of banks may consider instituting mechanisms that will ensure risk management is given prominence. A proactive approach must be taken to convert risks to opportunities by banks and other financial institutions, going forward, to cope with the vicissitudes of financial intermediation.Originality/valueThe originality of the study stems from the consideration that it provides some new insights into the impact of ERM on banks long-term sustainability in a developing country. The study also contributes to knowledge by exposing the factors determining the robustness of risk management practice. The study developed a checklist for assessing ERM practice from annual reports and other risk management disclosure documents. The paper also adds to the scarce literature on risk governance and risk management.

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