Beyond choice architecture: a building code for structuring climate risk management decisions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
JOSEPH ÁRVAI ◽  
ROBIN GREGORY
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Choice Architecture ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management

Abstract Although the need for urgent climate change action is clear, insights about how to make better climate risk management decisions are limited. While significant attention from behavioral researchers has focused on choice architecture, we argue that many of the contexts for addressing climate risks require increased attention to the needs of a deliberative and dynamic choice environment. A key facet of this kind of decision is the need for decision-makers and stakeholders to identify and balance conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. This recognition of difficult, context-specific trade-offs highlights the need for structuring the decision-making process so that objectives are clearly articulated and prioritized. Equally, policy analyses and deliberations must effectively link priorities with climate risk management options. This restructuring of decision-making about climate change calls for more than a nudge. Scientific and technical efforts must be redirected to help stakeholders and decision-makers better understand the diverse implications of climate change management alternatives and to become better equipped to take actions commensurate with the urgency of the problem.

Climate Risk Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-116
Author(s):  
Klaus Keller ◽  
Casey Helgeson ◽  
Vivek Srikrishnan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Implementing Strategies

Accelerating global climate change drives new climate risks. People around the world are researching, designing, and implementing strategies to manage these risks. Identifying and implementing sound climate risk management strategies poses nontrivial challenges including ( a) linking the required disciplines, ( b) identifying relevant values and objectives, ( c) identifying and quantifying important uncertainties, ( d) resolving interactions between decision levers and the system dynamics, ( e) quantifying the trade-offs between diverse values under deep and dynamic uncertainties, ( f) communicating to inform decisions, and ( g) learning from the decision-making needs to inform research design. Here we review these challenges and avenues to overcome them. ▪  People and institutions are confronted with emerging and dynamic climate risks. ▪  Stakeholder values are central to defining the decision problem. ▪  Mission-oriented basic research helps to improve the design of climate risk management strategies.

scholarly journals Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs

2016 ◽  
Vol 134 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Garner ◽  
Patrick Reed ◽  
Klaus Keller
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Explicit Representation ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management

scholarly journals How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170300 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. J. McDermott ◽  
S. Surminski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Making ◽  
The City

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting ‘acceptable risk levels' and identifying ‘adequate’ protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process—this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN INDONESIA: A REVIEW / Pengelolaan Resiko Iklim untuk Pertanian Berkelanjutan di Indonesia: Sebuah Tinjauan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Elza Surmaini ◽  
Fahmuddin Agus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Sustainable Agriculture ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Storage

<p>Climate-change related hazards, including drought, floods, extreme temperatures, and sea-water level rise have impacted Indonesia’s agriculture and these associated with economic losses. Therefore, it is increasingly important for farmers to be able to proactively anticipate the impact of weather and climate risks to protect their livelihoods through climate risk management (CRM) and to practice the sustainable agricultural production systems. Sustainable agriculture practices are needed to enhance resilience to adverse climate change events. This paper attempts to provide a review of agricultural risks related to climate change, principles and current CRM practices, and CRM practices at farm level based on agroecosystems, as well as approaches in enhancing agriculture CRM for sustainable agriculture development. The key technologies for lowland rice farming include alternate wetting and drying irrigation systems, and the use of drought, saline, and submergence tolerant rice varieties. For upland farming, water storage facilities such as water retardation pond, long storage, and channel reservoir are important. Subsequently, efficient water distribution systems such as drip irrigation, sprinkler irrigation, as well as capillary irrigation need enhancement. Various soil management technologies including minimum tillage and organic matter application are essential. For swampland one-way water management and conservation blocks, the “surjan” system, planting of adaptive varieties, and soil amelioration and fertilization are among the key treatments. Accurate climate forecasts may allow decision makers and farmers to make decisions to reduce negative impacts or take advantage of expected favorable climate. Finally, engagement of various actors, and capacity building is an integral part of CRM.</p><p>Keywords: Climate, management, agriculture, sustainable, agroecosystem.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Abstrak</strong></p><p>Bencana iklim seperti kekeringan, banjir, suhu ekstrem dan kenaikan muka air laut berdampak negatif terhadap pertanian dan menimbulkan kerugian ekonomi. Oleh karena itu menjadi semakin penting bagi petani untuk proaktif mengantisipasi dampak risiko cuaca dan iklim untuk melindungi kehidupan mereka melalui pengelolaan risiko iklim dan menerapkan sistem produksi pertanian berkelanjutan. Praktik budi daya pertanian berkelanjutan memerlukan upaya peningkatan ketangguhan tanaman terhadap dampak kejadian iklim ekstrem. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan risiko pertanian terhadap perubahan iklim, prinsip dan praktik pengelolaan risiko iklim, dan praktik pengelolaan risiko iklim di tingkat petani berdasarkan agroekosistem, serta pendekatan untuk mendorong praktik pengelolaan risiko iklim untuk pertanian berkelanjutan. Teknologi utama untuk pertanian padi sawah termasuk pengairan berselang dan penggunaan varietas toleran kekeringan, salinitas, dan rendaman. Untuk pertanian lahan kering diperlukan bangunan pemanen air seperti embung, long storage, dan dam parit untuk pengairan tanaman. Selain itu, sistem distribusi air yang efisien seperti irigasi tetes, irigasi sprinkler, dan irigasi kapiler juga diperperlukan. Berbagai teknologi pengelolaan tanah termasuk pengolahan tanah minimum dan penggunaan bahan organik sangat penting. Pada lahan rawa pasang surut, pengelolaan air satu arah dan blok penyimpan air, sistem surjan, penanaman varietas adaptif, dan penggunaan amelioran dan pemupukan merupakan perlakuan utama. Prediksi iklim yang akurat dapat digunakan pengambil kebijakan dan petani dalam mengambil keputusan untuk mengurangi dampak negatif atau memanfaatkan kondisi iklim. Pelibatan berbagai aktor dan peningkatan kapasitas merupakan bagian integral dari pengelolaan risiko iklim.</p><p>Kata kunci: Iklim, pengelolaan, pertanian, berkelanjutan, agroekosistem.</p>

scholarly journals Reflections on Enhancing the Impact of Climate Risk Management Through Transformative Adaptation

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon Hellin ◽  
Eleanor Fisher ◽  
Ana María Loboguerrero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Transformative Change ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transformative Adaptation

Climate risk management is part of the response to the threat of climate change. Much effort has focused on the promotion on climate-resilient agriculture. There continues to be undue focus on technology solutions per se and not enough attention on the coupling of technologies and socio-economics and how they become embedded in ecological systems underpinning smallholder agriculture. In this perspective, we argue that an intertwined social–ecological–technological systems approach to climate risk management is needed to ensure that climate-resilient agriculture contributes more to the realization of goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Furthermore, in line with broader policy thinking on the need for transformative change toward sustainably living on the planet and “leaving no one behind,” a greater focus on transformative adaptation is required. Transformative adaptation tackles the root causes of vulnerability including unevenly distributed power relations, and extant networks of control and influence. There are, however, relatively few examples of moving from the theory of transformative adaptation to practice. Three recent practical examples of transdisciplinary approaches, that we have direct experience of as researchers, provide lessons for initial ways forward as part of climate risk management initiatives. Examples from Vietnam, East and Southern Africa, and Guatemala illustrate the importance of inter- and transdisciplinary responses whereby the inequalities underlying unequal power structures may be addressed, enabling farmers to pursue climate risk management pathways that contribute to climate resilience and human development, as epitomized by the Sustainable Development Goals.

scholarly journals Navigating Cascades of Uncertainty — As Easy as ABC? Not Quite…

2018 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850007 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Smith ◽  
R. L. Wilby ◽  
C. Broderick ◽  
C. Prudhomme ◽  
T. Matthews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
Scientific Outputs ◽  
Lower Limits ◽  
Ensemble Experiments

The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likely outcomes. The intermediate approach, “Crystallizing” the uncertainty, distills the full range to improve the computational efficiency of the “Analyze” approach. Modelers typically dictate the study design, with decision-makers then facing difficulties when interpreting the results of ensemble experiments. We assert that to make science more relevant to decision-making, we must begin by considering the applications of scientific outputs in facilitating decision-making pathways, particularly when managing extreme events. This requires working with practitioners from outset, thereby adding “D” for “Decision-centric” to the ABC framework.

How to inform decision making under uncertainty? Quantifying and evaluating different sources of uncertainty in environmental modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conrad Jackisch ◽  
Anett Schibalski ◽  
Boris Schröder
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Different Sources

&lt;p&gt;Adaptation to environmental changes requires decision making under uncertainty. Providing forecasts of the potential impact of different management options is a common task for environmental modellers. However, we rarely succeed in conveying uncertainties as relevant information to distinguish management options regarding their expected value and its uncertainty. Quite to the contrary, the reality in the modelling of complex systems under climate change often leads to similar mean values and broad uncertainty bands. Both may irritate users and even lead to indecision and inaction despite an urgent call for action.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the inter- and transdisciplinary project RUINS (Risk, Uncertainty and Insurance under Climate Change. Coastal Land Management on the German North Sea), we address a region that is sensitive to changes in relative sea level, weather patterns and land-use practices. We develop methods to quantify the uncertainty of adaptation measures through the chain of models for climate, hydrology and landscape management. The aim is to provide tools for the evaluation of forecasted effects of management options, where uncertainty itself is considered an evaluation criterion.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We will present examples to point out pitfalls and potentials of uncertainty quantification in environmental model forecasting for management decision making: (i) we highlight different sources and different kinds of uncertainty with an example of agricultural production; (ii) we address trade-offs between expected wind power production and the security of its provision; moreover, (iii) we highlight the role of temporal data resolution and capacity of drainage structures in the assessment of flood protection during extreme rain events.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Water-related infrastructure investments in a changing environment: a perspective from the World Bank

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 31-53
Author(s):  
Diego J. Rodríguez ◽  
Homero A. Paltán ◽  
Luis E. García ◽  
Patrick Ray ◽  
Sarah St. George Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
World Bank Group ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World

Abstract At present, there is a global deficit in infrastructure and the World Bank Group (WBG) is one of the major sources of financing to reduce this gap worldwide. The WBG has policies and protocols for approving investments taking into consideration financial and economic indicators while ensuring social and environmental safeguards. In recent years, these safeguards have been updated to include the effects of climate change and robustness and resilience to support climate-informed project investment decision-making. A series of tools for screening projects for climate vulnerabilities and identification of risk management options have been developed to help project teams comply with these requirements. One of these tools is the hierarchical four-phased Decision Tree Framework (DTF) that, beyond screening, helps to analyze plans and project vulnerabilities, climate-related or otherwise, using a decision scaling approach, and explore risk management options, if necessary. The four phases of the DTF are (i) project screening, (ii) initial analysis, (iii) stress test, and (iv) climate risk management. This paper reviews applications of the DTF from the climate change screening phase to non-climate uncertainty screening and decision-making for project investments and prioritization. A peek into work in progress for incorporating resilience in the decision-making process, both for projects and through projects, is also provided, as well as next steps, looking forward.

scholarly journals Using Deliberative Democracy for Better Urban Decision-Making through Integrative Thinking

Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Janette Hartz-Karp ◽  
Dora Marinova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Deliberative Democracy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Capital City ◽  
City Region ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Urban Issues ◽  
Sustainability Challenges

This article expands the evidence about integrative thinking by analyzing two case studies that applied the collaborative decision-making method of deliberative democracy which encourages representative, deliberative and influential public participation. The four-year case studies took place in Western Australia, (1) in the capital city Perth and surrounds, and (2) in the city-region of Greater Geraldton. Both aimed at resolving complex and wicked urban sustainability challenges as they arose. The analysis suggests that a new way of thinking, namely integrative thinking, emerged during the deliberations to produce operative outcomes for decision-makers. Building on theory and research demonstrating that deliberative designs lead to improved reasoning about complex issues, the two case studies show that through discourse based on deliberative norms, participants developed different mindsets, remaining open-minded, intuitive and representative of ordinary people’s basic common sense. This spontaneous appearance of integrative thinking enabled sound decision-making about complex and wicked sustainability-related urban issues. In both case studies, the participants exhibited all characteristics of integrative thinking to produce outcomes for decision-makers: salience—grasping the problems’ multiple aspects; causality—identifying multiple sources of impacts; sequencing—keeping the whole in view while focusing on specific aspects; and resolution—discovering novel ways that avoided bad choice trade-offs.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document