scholarly journals Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Petti ◽  
B. J. Cowling

Abstract Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic association between influenza mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality rates in the European context. We considered the 3-year average influenza (2014–2016) and COVID-19 (31 May 2020) crude mortality rates in 34 countries using EUROSTAT and ECDC databases and performed correlation and regression analyses. The two variables – log transformed, showed significant Spearman's correlation ρ = 0.439 (P = 0.01), and regression coefficients, b = 0.743 (95% confidence interval, 0.272–1.214; R2 = 0.244; P = 0.003), b = 0.472 (95% confidence interval, 0.067–0.878; R2 = 0.549; P = 0.02), unadjusted and adjusted for confounders (population size and cardiovascular disease mortality), respectively. Common significant determinants of both COVID-19 and influenza mortality rates were life expectancy, influenza vaccination in the elderly (direct associations), number of hospital beds per population unit and crude cardiovascular disease mortality rate (inverse associations). This analysis suggests that influenza mortality rates were independently associated with COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe, with implications for public health preparedness, and implies preliminary undetected SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe.

2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 135-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Etsuji Suzuki ◽  
Takashi Yorifuji ◽  
Kazumune Ueshima ◽  
Soshi Takao ◽  
Masumi Sugiyama ◽  
...  

1998 ◽  
Vol 82 (10) ◽  
pp. 1242-1247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaela Modan ◽  
Einat Peles ◽  
Hillel Halkin ◽  
Hedva Nitzan ◽  
Morris Azaria ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 517-524
Author(s):  
Luis A. Rodriguez ◽  
Patrick T. Bradshaw ◽  
Humberto Parada ◽  
Nikhil K. Khankari ◽  
Tengteng Wang ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
pp. bjsports-2020-102350
Author(s):  
Trine Moholdt ◽  
Eivind Schjelderup Skarpsno ◽  
Børge Moe ◽  
Tom Ivar Lund Nilsen

ObjectivesTo examine associations between long-term (11–22 years) adherence to physical activity recommendations and mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular disease.DesignProspective population-based study with repeated assessments of self-reported physical activity (1984–86, 1995–97 and 2006–08) and follow-up until the end of 2013.SettingCounty of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway.ParticipantsMen and women aged ≥20 years; 32 811 who participated in 1984–86 and 1995–97; 22 058 in 1984–86 and 2006–08; 31 948 in 1995–97 and 2006–09 and 19 349 in all three examinations (1984–1986, 1995–95 and 2006–08).Main outcome measuresAll-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality from the national Cause of Death Registry.ResultsCompared with the reference category comprising individuals who adhered to the physical activity recommendations (≥150 min of moderate intensity or ≥60 min of vigorous intensity physical activity per week) over time, individuals who remained inactive (reporting no or very little physical activity) from 1984–86 to 1995–97 had HRs (95% CI) of 1.56 (1.40 to 1.73) for all-cause mortality and 1.94 (1.62 to 2.32) for cardiovascular disease mortality. Individuals who were inactive in 1984–86 and then adhered to recommendations in 2006–08 had HRs of 1.07 (0.85 to 1.35) for all-cause mortality and 1.31 (0.87 to 1.98) for cardiovascular disease mortality. In a subsample of individuals who participated at all three time points, those who were inactive or physically active below the recommended level across three decades (1984–86, 1995–97 and 2006–2008) had an HR of 1.57 (1.22 to 2.03) for all-cause mortality and 1.72 (1.08 to 2.73) for cardiovascular disease mortality.ConclusionIndividuals who remained, or became, physically inactive had substantially greater risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality compared with those who met the physical activity recommendations throughout the lifespan.


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