Sandy the Rainmaker: The Electoral Impact of a Super Storm

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 313-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yamil Velez ◽  
David Martin
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Electoral Impact

AbstractThe arrival of Hurricane Sandy within a week of the 2012 presidential election caused unprecedented disruption to the final days of the campaign and Election Day in areas that were affected. The precise impact of the storm on those areas hit hardest was not necessarily clear. Contrary to prior research on the effect of disasters on electoral outcomes, we find that the president's vote share was ultimately increased in storm-affected areas by about four percentage points, plus or minus two points. While those states most heavily affected were unlikely to give their electoral vote to Romney because of other factors, we present counterfactual analyses that show that such a storm could have had a significant impact on swing states: although the storm only affected some areas, we show that Virginia would likely have been won by Romney were it not hit at all, whereas North Carolina would likely have gone for Obama had it been directly in the storm's path.

scholarly journals Backing the Incumbent in Difficult Times: The Electoral Impact of Wildfires

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 469-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Ramos ◽  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Vote Share ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election ◽  
Difficult Times

How do voters react to shocks that are outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral impact of wildfires in Spain in the period 1983-2014. This context allows us to study (a) the effects of fires at different locations and times, as opposed to a specific disaster; (b) the heterogeneous effects by time relative to election day; and (c) the effects on elections for all levels of government. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that an accidental fire up to 9 months ahead of a municipal election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by up to 8 percentage points, whereas a fire earlier in the term does not affect the election results. In addition, fires have no effect on regional or national elections. We discuss the possible mechanisms behind the results in light of the main theories on electoral accountability.

scholarly journals Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (6) ◽  
pp. 1322-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Pons
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
The Individual

This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized door-to-door visits at the individual level, the scale of this campaign (five million doors knocked) enabled randomization by precinct, the level at which vote shares are recorded administratively. Visits did not affect turnout, but increased Hollande's vote share in the first round and accounted for one-fourth of his victory margin in the second. Visits' impact persisted in later elections, suggesting a lasting persuasion effect. (JEL C93, D7, D83)

scholarly journals Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

Are voters' views about proportional outcomes shaped by partisan preferences? A survey experiment in the context of a real election

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Semra Sevi ◽  
Carolina Plescia
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Ultimate Outcome ◽  
The Government ◽  
Performance Conditions

Abstract We examine citizens' evaluations of majoritarian and proportional electoral outcomes through an innovative experimental design. We ask respondents to react to six possible electoral outcomes during the 2019 Canadian federal election campaign. There are two treatments: the performance of the party and the proportionality of electoral outcomes. There are three performance conditions: the preferred party's vote share corresponds to vote intentions as reported in the polls at the time of the survey (the reference), or it gets 6 percentage points more (fewer) votes. There are two electoral outcome conditions: disproportional and proportional. We find that proportional outcomes are slightly preferred and that these preferences are partly conditional on partisan considerations. In the end, however, people focus on the ultimate outcome, that is, who is likely to form the government. People are happy when their party has a plurality of seats and is therefore likely to form the government, and relatively unhappy otherwise. We end with a discussion of the merits and limits of our research design.

scholarly journals The Presidential Election of 1824 in North Carolina.

1939 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 396
Author(s):  
Charles S. Sydnor ◽  
Albert Ray Newsome
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Presidential Election

scholarly journals Using Intrade.com to Teach Campaign Strategies in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (01) ◽  
pp. 139-144
Author(s):  
Paul R. Abramson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Campaigns And Elections ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Bid Prices ◽  
The Way

AbstractDuring the six weeks before the 2008 elections, I conducted a contest for the 72 students enrolled in my upper-division course Campaigns and Elections. Using contract prices posted by Intrade.com, an electronic gaming market based in Dublin, I asked students to choose among 10 political outcomes. The “contracts” earned by each choice were determined by the Intrade “bid” prices as of September 24, 2008, the day the contest began. The contest helped teach students about campaign strategies, the way electoral rules affect electoral outcomes, provided a reference point to discuss the campaign, and was designed to stimulate interest in the election.

Clivage linguistique et vote économique au Canada

1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 557-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Guérin ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Economic Perceptions

AbstractThis study deals with the question of economic voting in Canada, notably that the electoral impact of economic perceptions with regard to the performance of the federal government has not been homogeneous among the whole Canadian electorate during the period of Liberal dominance in Quebec. Contrary to our Findings on voters in other provinces, francophone Quebeckers did not vote according to their judgment of the government on economic matters, their fidelity to the Liberal party having inhibited them in this respect. These results suggest that the absence of economic voting in Quebec during the Liberal regime may clarify, at least in part, the puzzling conclusions of previous research, that show a fragile relationship between the economy and the electoral outcomes in Canada. These findings break new ground for a better understanding of the specific electoral rationality used by minorities in long-established democracies.

scholarly journals The Durable Differential Deterrent Effects of Strict Photo Identification Laws

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Grimmer ◽  
Jesse Yoder
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Differential Effect ◽  
General Election ◽  
Exact Matching ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Photo Identification ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Law

An increasing number of states have adopted laws that require voters to show photo identification to vote. We show that the differential effect of the laws on turnout among those who lack ID persists even after the laws are repealed. We leverage administrative data from North Carolina and a photo ID law in effect for a primary, but not the sub- sequent general, election. Using exact matching and a difference-in-differences design, we show that for the 3% of voters who lack ID in North Carolina, the ID law caused a 0.7 percentage point turnout decrease in the 2016 primary election relative to those with ID. After the law was suspended this effect persisted: those without ID were 2.6 percentage points less likely to turnout in the 2016 general election and 1.7 percentage points less likely to turnout in the 2018 general.

scholarly journals Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-42
Author(s):  
Pankaj Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Economic Factor ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
White House ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Incumbent Party

The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election 2016 using factor analysis, which groups the various economic and non-economic parameters based on the correlation among them. The major economic factor significant in 2016 US presidential election is the growth of the economy, and the ‘anti-incumbency factor that signifies how long the incumbent party has been controlling the White House is found to be an important non-economic factor likely to play a dominant role in the election. The dependent variables considered are the vote shares of the nominees of the incumbent and the non-incumbent majority party candidates. The forecast is calculated by running a regression of the significant factors, obtained through factor analysis technique, on the incumbent party vote share as well as on the non-incumbent party vote share. The proposed models forecast the vote share of Democrat candidate Mrs. Hillary Clinton to be 45.59% with a standard error of ±2.32% and that of Republican candidate Mr. Donald Trump to be 39.51% with a standard error of ±3.87%. Hence, the models built in the paper signal a comfortable margin of victory for the Presidential nominee of the incumbent party, Hillary Clinton.The study re-establishes the notion that the non-economic factors have a greater influence on the outcomes of election as compared to the economic factors, as some of the important economic factors such as inflation and unemployment rate failed to establish their significance. 

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

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