scholarly journals To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?

2008 ◽  
Vol 40 (01) ◽  
pp. 73-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julieta Frank ◽  
Philip Garcia ◽  
Scott H. Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Response ◽  
Information Measures ◽  
New Information ◽  
Market Expectations ◽  
Hogs And Pigs Reports

We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements' rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market's best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes.

scholarly journals Price Discovery on Stock Index Futures markets under Extreme Events: Evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (25) ◽  
pp. 190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Stable Period

In this paper, the price discovery function of stock index futures for spot stock index is studied in view of the soaring and plunging periods of Chinese stock market in recent years. We use the VECM model to do empirical research under periods of stationary, boom and slump. The results show that there is a long-term relationship between CSI 300 index and CSI 300 index futures. During the stable period of Chinese stock market, the CSI 300 stock index futures are sensitive to the short-term impact, and its ability of price discovery is obviously. However, during the period of boom and collapse, the price discovery function of CSI 300 index futures is weak.

ROLE AND USAGE OF ICT IN SCHOOL EDUCATION

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (36) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Madhavi
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
School Education ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Term Storage ◽  
New Information ◽  
Concrete Form ◽  
Term Storage

When we are working on a computer, the information goes into short term memory. Unless we deliberately save the data onto long term storage, it is lost very quickly. The method we use to save new information that is presented to us determines that we most likely will retrieve it in the future. Similarly the concepts that are explained to the students have to be sent to their long term memory, i.e the abstract has to be made into the concrete form. This is possible by using ICT in classroom situation for making a merry in understanding the concepts if the school education and life. The usage of ICT will not only enhance learning environment but also prepare, next generation for future lives and career as said by Wheeler.

Implicit Cognitive Vulnerability through Nudges, Boosts and Bounces

2022 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Cognitive Vulnerability ◽  
Instructional Environment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Community Environment ◽  
New Information ◽  
Motivational Support ◽  
Primary Focus

Implicit Cognitive Vulnerability is a developing theoretical understanding, wherein feeling safe within an instructional environment is of significant impact upon short-term and long-term memory’s cognitive acquisition of information so as to embed new information within a learner’s conceptual framework of understanding. Towards successfully individualizing a learner’s implicit cognitive vulnerability, the primary focus has been upon the larger community environment in which the learner is housed, yet the viability of the learner’s ability and cognitive viability must also be addressed through nudges, boosts and bounces of motivational support. Recognizing this individualized need of learners, this discussion revolves around the ability of a learner to embed implicit cognitive vulnerability within their own cognitive viability through structured and unstructured synchronous and asynchronous nudges and boosts that support self-regulatory and self-efficacy understandings.

Liquidity of China’s agricultural futures market: measurement and cross-market dependence

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Jian Li ◽  
Linjie Wang ◽  
Chongguang Li
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Contagion Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seminal Paper ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Futures

PurposeThis paper aims to present the first empirical liquidity measurement of China’s agricultural futures markets and study time-varying liquidity dependence across markets.Design/methodology/approachBased on both high- and low-frequency trading data of soybean and corn, this paper evaluates short-term liquidity adjustment in Chinese agricultural futures market measured by liquidity benchmark and long-term liquidity development measured by liquidity proxies.FindingsBy constructing comparisons, the authors identify the seminal paper of Fong, Holden and Trzcinka (2017) as the best low-frequency liquidity proxy in China’s agricultural futures market and capture similar historical patterns of the liquidity in soybean and corn markets. The authors further employ Copula-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models to investigate liquidity dependence between soybean and corn futures markets. Results show that cross-market liquidity dependence tends to be dynamic and asymmetric (in upper versus lower tails). The liquidity dependence becomes stronger when these markets experience negative shocks than positive shocks, indicating a concern on the contagion effect of liquidity risk under negative financial situations.Originality/valueThe findings of this study provide useful information on the dynamic evolution of liquidity pattern and cross-market dependence of fastest-growing agricultural futures in the largest emerging economy.

The Immediacy of Conceptual Processing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Knowledge ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Conceptual Processing ◽  
Conceptual Structures ◽  
New Information ◽  
Thinking Process

Understanding requires thought, and thought requires memory, both short-term memory for the ongoing thinking process and longer-term memories that constitute one’s relevant knowledge. In a variety of studies the chapter shows that conceptual knowledge comes into play faster than standard models of long-term memory retrieval suppose and reflects a larger immediate capacity than models of short-term or working memory have suggested. It proposes a new form of memory termed conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) to account for the speed and appropriateness with which our prior knowledge shapes current perception and thought. When we identify a new stimulus, not only its concept but also other associated information in long-term memory is immediately activated, allowing new conceptual structures to be formed that relate the new information to relevant knowledge. Activated information that does not become structured is quickly forgotten and may never become conscious.

How long is long-term priming? Classification and action priming in the scale of days

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 1183-1199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karolina Moutsopoulou ◽  
Christina Pfeuffer ◽  
Andrea Kiesel ◽  
Qing Yang ◽  
Florian Waszak
Keyword(s):  
Processing Time ◽  
Memory System ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Stimulus Response ◽  
New Information ◽  
Stimulus Classification

Previous research has shown that stimulus–response associations comprise associations between the stimulus and the task (a classification task in particular) and the stimulus and the action performed as a response. These associations, contributing to the phenomenon of priming, affect behaviour after a delay of hundreds of trials and they are resistant against overwriting. Here, we investigate their longevity, testing their effects in short-term (seconds after priming) and long-term (24 hr and 1 week after priming) memory. Three experiments demonstrated that both stimulus–classification (S-C) and stimulus–action (S-A) associations show long-term memory effects. The results also show that retrieval of these associations can be modulated by the amount of engagement on the same task between encoding and retrieval, that is, how often participants performed this task between prime and probe sessions. Finally, results show that differences in processing time during encoding are linked to the amount of conflict caused during retrieval of S-C, but not S-A associations. These findings add new information to the existing model of priming as a memory system and pose questions about the interactions of priming and top-down control processes.

The Cost of Structure Learning

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 1646-1655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne G. E. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Computational Models ◽  
Structure Learning ◽  
Behavioral Experiment ◽  
Learning Problem ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Information ◽  
Transfer Rules ◽  
Learning Flexibility ◽  
The Cost

Human learning is highly efficient and flexible. A key contributor to this learning flexibility is our ability to generalize new information across contexts that we know require the same behavior and to transfer rules to new contexts we encounter. To do this, we structure the information we learn and represent it hierarchically as abstract, context-dependent rules that constrain lower-level stimulus–action–outcome contingencies. Previous research showed that humans create such structure even when it is not needed, presumably because it usually affords long-term generalization benefits. However, computational models predict that creating structure is costly, with slower learning and slower RTs. We tested this prediction in a new behavioral experiment. Participants learned to select correct actions for four visual patterns, in a setting that either afforded (but did not promote) structure learning or enforced nonhierarchical learning, while controlling for the difficulty of the learning problem. Results replicated our previous finding that healthy young adults create structure even when unneeded and that this structure affords later generalization. Furthermore, they supported our prediction that structure learning incurred a major learning cost and that this cost was specifically tied to the effort in selecting abstract rules, leading to more errors when applying those rules. These findings confirm our theory that humans pay a high short-term cost in learning structure to enable longer-term benefits in learning flexibility.

scholarly journals Hypnotic drug risks of mortality, infection, depression, and cancer: but lack of benefit

F1000Research ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel F. Kripke
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Treatment ◽  
Bright Light ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Cognitive Behavioral Treatment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Automobile Crashes ◽  
Sleeping Pills ◽  
Hypnotic Drug ◽  
New Information

This is a review of hypnotic drug risks and benefits, reassessing and updating advice presented to the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (United States FDA). Almost every month, new information appears about the risks of hypnotics (sleeping pills). This review includes new information on the growing USA overdose epidemic, eight new epidemiologic studies of hypnotics’ mortality not available for previous compilations, and new emphasis on risks of short-term hypnotic prescription. The most important risks of hypnotics include excess mortality, especially overdose deaths, quiet deaths at night, infections, cancer, depression and suicide, automobile crashes, falls, and other accidents, and hypnotic-withdrawal insomnia. The short-term use of one-two prescriptions is associated with greater risk per dose than long-term use. Hypnotics are usually prescribed without approved indication, most often with specific contraindications, but even when indicated, there is little or no benefit. The recommended doses objectively increase sleep little if at all, daytime performance is often made worse, not better, and the lack of general health benefits is commonly misrepresented in advertising. Treatments such as the cognitive behavioral treatment of insomnia and bright light treatment of circadian rhythm disorders might offer safer and more effective alternative approaches to insomnia.

scholarly journals The Issues and Implications About the Volatility of the Stock and the Bond Prices and Their Returns and the Volatility of Interest Rates and Inflation - Which Are Being Researched in Finance and Macro-Monetary Economics Literature: A Survey

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muthucattu Thomas Paul
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
The Cost

Volatility of returns of the financial assets, and the volatility of the inflation and aggregate demand, are important issues in the Financial markets, and the macro- monetary economics. In this article, the volatility in the stock and bond markets are surveyed and discussed in detail. Our view is that the higher volatility in the long-term rates than in the short-term rates, may be due to the higher leverage effect in the long-term markets and rates than in the short -term rates. In the previous century, last fifty years, the average stock returns were much higher and the expected return or the cost of capital was lower. The conditional volatility models and the volatility spill over between the spot and futures markets and their implications are deeply explored in this article along with the price discovery between spot and futures markets and the conditions for the efficiency in these markets. In our section dealing with Macro- monetary economics, the effect of the variability of inflation on the demand for money function, on the nominal rates of interest, and on the slope of the aggregate supply curve, are brought into sharp focus and is being discussed through the relevant literature survey.

scholarly journals Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Pénasse ◽  
Luc Renneboog
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Art Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Postwar Art ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Speculative Trading

We argue that extrapolative expectations drive boom–bust cycles in the postwar art market. Price run-ups coincide with increases in demand fundamentals but are followed by predictable busts. Predictable changes account for about half of the variance of five-year price changes. High prices coincide with many attributes of speculative bubbles: trading volume, the share of short-term trades, the share of postwar art, and volatility are all higher during booms. In addition, short-term transactions underperform long-term transactions. Survey evidence further confirms the link between beliefs, prices, and volume dynamics as in models in which extrapolative beliefs fuel speculative bubbles. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.

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