scholarly journals Hydrological responses to climate change and irrigation in the Aral Sea drainage basin

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Shibuo ◽  
Jerker Jarsjö ◽  
Georgia Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Hydrological Responses

scholarly journals Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7595-7620 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jarsjö ◽  
S. M. Asokan ◽  
C. Prieto ◽  
A. Bring ◽  
G. Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Loss ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Irrigation Practices

Abstract. This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3 % of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas the 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Projected future climate change (for the period 2010–2039) however is here calculated to considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future temperature change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices. With such irrigation practices, the river runoff is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50 % higher temperature increase (of 2.3 °C instead of the projected 1.5 °C until 2010–2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

scholarly journals Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1335-1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jarsjö ◽  
S. M. Asokan ◽  
C. Prieto ◽  
A. Bring ◽  
G. Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Loss ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Irrigation Practices

Abstract. This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3% of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Results show that errors in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) from single GCMs have large influence on projected change trends (for the period 2010–2039) of river runoff (R), even though the ASDB is spatially well resolved by current GCMs. By contrast, observed biases in GCM ensemble mean results have relatively small influence on projected R change trends. Ensemble mean results show that projected future climate change will considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future T change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices, which shows how climate change and water use change can interact in modifying ET (and R). With maintained irrigation practices, R is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50% higher T increase (of 2.3 °C instead of the projected 1.5 °C until 2010–2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

Former bay of the desiccating Aral Sea as the newly formed world’s largest heliothermal lake 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Izhitskiy ◽  
Georgiy Kirillin ◽  
Igor Goncharenko ◽  
Abilgazy Kurbaniyazov ◽  
Peter Zavialov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Field Observations ◽  
Cold Winter ◽  
Antarctic Lake ◽  
German Research Foundation ◽  
German Research

<p>The Aral Sea desiccation is the worst aquatic ecological disaster of the last century, important for understanding the worldwide trends to degradation of arid lakes under water use and climate change. Formerly the fourth largest lake worldwide, the Aral Sea has lost ~90% of its water since the early 1960s due to irrigation in its drainage basin. Basing on field observations and numerical simulations, we show that the former bay of the Aral Sea — Chernyshev — turned to a meromictic heliothermal water body with extreme temperature, light and chemical regimes. The heliothermal regime of Chernyshev keeps the deep monimolimnion warm (about 15-16°C) throughout cold winter. Among less than 30 heliothermal waters worldwide, Chernyshev with its area of ~80-90 km<sup>2</sup> is the largest heliothermal lake, the second one being permanently ice-covered Antarctic lake Vanda. Chernyshev is also the youngest heliothermal lake, emerged within the last half-century. Seasonal themal cycle of the basin, scenarios of its formation and possible consequences for the ecosystem are discussed.</p><p>The study is funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR project № 20-55-12007) and German Research Foundation (DFG KI 853-16/1).</p>

Adaptation to climate change in the mountain regions of Central Asia: Assessment of the current knowledge

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zarina Saidaliyeva ◽  
Veruska Muccione ◽  
Maria Shahgedanova ◽  
Sophie Bigler ◽  
Carolina Adler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Number Of Publications ◽  
Adaptation Options

<p>The mountains of Central Asia, extending over 7000 m a.s.l. and accommodating diverse and complex natural and managed systems, are very vulnerable to climate change. They support valuable environmental functions and provide key ecosystem goods and services to the arid downstream regions which strongly depend on the melting snowpack and glaciers for the provision of water by the transboundary rivers starting in the mountains. Strong climate change adaptation (CCA) action is required to increase resilience of the vulnerable, low-income communities in the region. Our knowledge of the CCA actions in the mountains of Central Asia is limited in comparison with other mountainous regions. The aim of this study is to assess the existing adaptation projects and publications and to identify gaps in adaptation efforts by conducting a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature published in English language. To be selected, the papers had to comply with the following criteria: (i) publication between 2013 and 2019; (ii) explicit focus on CCA in the mountain ranges of Central Asia; (iii) explanation of adaptation options; (vi) a clear methodology of deriving suitable adaptation options. Following the initial screening and subsequent reading of the publications, complying with the specified criteria, 33 peer-reviewed articles were selected for final analysis. This is considerably lower than the number of publications on the European Alps, Hindu-Kush – Himalayas, and the Andes. The number of publications on Central Asian mountains has declined since 2013.</p><p>The research is heavily focused on the problem of water resources, especially water availability at present and in the future 70 % of the analysed papers addressing these issues. These are followed by the papers considering adaptation in agriculture and in managing biodiversity. A critical finding is the lack of publications on adaptation to hazards and disasters including glacier outburst floods, mudflow, and landslides which are common and comparatively well-researched hazards in the Central Asian mountains, experiencing rapid deglaciation. About 50 % of the papers address the transboundary nature of the impacts of climate changes on water resources and land management reflecting the transboundary nature of the Central Asian catchments and the tensions which exist across the region but are especially prominent in the Aral Sea basin.</p><p>We conclude that while there is ample evidence of climate change and its impacts in the mountains of Central Asia and many publications mention the need for adaptation, a very limited number of publications explicitly focus on CCA and how it can be delivered.</p>

How Climate Change and Human Interaction Alter Chemical Regime in Salt Lakes, Case Study: Lake Urmia, Aral Sea, the Dead Sea, and Lake Issyk-Kul

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniy V. Yakushev ◽  
Natalia Yu. Andrulionis ◽  
Mahnaz Jafari ◽  
Hamid A. K. Lahijani ◽  
Peygham Ghaffari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Salt Lakes ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Study Lake ◽  
The Dead

The impact of climate change and human activities on the Aral Sea Basin over the past 50 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. 105125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanxuan Wang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Fei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Aral Sea Basin ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Groundwater Level Variations in the Amu Darya Delta

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2869
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Pan ◽  
Weishi Wang ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Yue Huang ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Pearson Correlation Analysis ◽  
Groundwater Dynamic

In the past few decades, the shrinkage of the Aral Sea is one of the biggest ecological catastrophes caused by human activity. To quantify the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on groundwater, the spatiotemporal groundwater dynamic characteristics in the Amu Darya Delta of the Aral Sea from 1999 to 2017 were analyzed, using the groundwater level, climate conditions, remote sensing data, and irrigation information. Statistics analysis was adopted to analyze the trend of groundwater variation, including intensity, periodicity, spatial structure, while the Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on the variabilities of the groundwater level. Results reveal that the local groundwater dynamic has varied considerably. From 1999 to 2002, the groundwater level dropped from −189 cm to −350 cm. Until 2017, the groundwater level rose back to −211 cm with fluctuation. Seasonally, the fluctuation period of groundwater level and irrigation water was similar, both were about 18 months. Spatially, the groundwater level kept stable within the irrigation area and bare land but fluctuated drastically around the irrigation area. The Pearson correlation analysis reveals that the dynamic of the groundwater level is closely related to irrigation activity within the irrigation area (Nukus: −0.583), while for the place adjacent to the Aral Sea, the groundwater level is closely related to the Large Aral Sea water level (Muynak: 0.355). The results of PCA showed that the cumulative contribution rate of the first three components exceeds 85%. The study reveals that human activities have a great impact on groundwater, effective management, and the development of water resources in arid areas is an essential prerequisite for ecological protection.

scholarly journals Hydrological Responses of Climate Change on Lake Ziway Catchment, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

2018 ◽  
Vol 09 (06) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abrahama T ◽  
Woldemicheala A ◽  
Muluneha A ◽  
Abateb B
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rift Valley ◽  
Hydrological Responses

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgy Ayzel ◽  
Alexander Izhitskiy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Freshwater Inflow ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Ecological Conditions ◽  
Change Impact

During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007–2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.

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