The impact of climate change and human activities on the Aral Sea Basin over the past 50 years

Separating the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is an important topic in hydrology, and a large number of methods and theories have been widely used. In this paper, we review the current papers on separating the impacts of climate and human activities on runoff, summarize the progress of relevant research methods and applications in recent years, and discuss future research needs and directions.

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Water Storage Monitoring in the Aral Sea and its Endorheic Basin from Multisatellite Data and a Hydrological Model

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12152408 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (15) ◽

pp. 2408

Author(s):

Delong Tao ◽

Hongling Shi ◽

Chunchun Gao ◽

Jingang Zhan ◽

Xiaoping Ke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Water Storage ◽

Image Data ◽

Aral Sea ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Endorheic Basin ◽

The Impact ◽

Storage Change

Inland water storage change is a fundamental part of the hydrologic cycle, which reflects the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources. In this study, we used multisatellite data (from satellite altimetry, remote sensing, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) to investigate water storage changes in the Aral Sea and its endorheic basin. The water storage depletion rate in the Aral Sea from calibrated hypsometric curves (CHCs) created by satellite altimetry and image data agrees with the GRACE-derived result using the Slepian space domain inverse method (SSDIM). Compared with the combined filtering method (CFM) and mascon solutions, the SSDIM was shown to be an effective method of reducing the GRACE leakage error and restoring the signal attenuation in the Aral Sea. Moreover, we used the WaterGAP global hydrology model (WGHM) to qualitatively analyze the variations in the water storage components. The results show that the groundwater in the Aral Sea affects the change in the interannual water storage, especially during the extreme dry and humid periods. However, from the long-term water storage trend, the decrease in the surface storage dominates the shrinking of the Aral Sea. In addition, more details of the water storage change pattern in the endorheic basin were revealed by the enhanced GRACE solution. Our findings accentuate the severe water storage states of the Aral Sea endorheic basin under the impact of climate change and human interventions.

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Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow in a Semi-Arid Watershed with the Budyko Equation Incorporating Dynamic Vegetation Information

Water ◽

10.3390/w10121781 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 1781 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Lei Tian ◽

Jiming Jin ◽

Pute Wu ◽

Guo-yue Niu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Human Activities ◽

Yellow River ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Information ◽

Grain For Green Project ◽

Drying Trend ◽

The Impact ◽

The Wuding River

Understanding hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) is important for water resource planning and management, especially for water-limited areas. The annual streamflow of the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), the largest sediment source of the Yellow River in China, has decreased significantly over the past 50 years at a rate of 5.2 mm/decade. Using the Budyko equation, this study investigated this decrease with the contributions from climate change and LULCC caused by human activities, which have intensified since 1999 due to China’s Grain for Green Project (GFGP). The Budyko parameter that represents watershed characteristics was more reasonably configured and derived to improve the performance of the Budyko equation. Vegetation changes were included in the Budyko equation to further improve its simulations, and these changes showed a significant upward trend due to the GFGP based on satellite data. An improved decomposition method based on the Budyko equation was used to quantitatively separate the impact of climate change from that of LULCC on the streamflow in the WRW. Our results show that climate change generated a dominant effect on the streamflow and decreased it by 72.4% in the WRW. This climatic effect can be further explained with the drying trend of the Palmer Severity Drought Index, which was calculated based only on climate change information for the WRW. In the meantime, although human activities in this watershed have been very intense, especially since 1999, vegetation cover increase contributed a 27.6% decline to the streamflow, which played a secondary role in affecting hydrological processes in the WRW.

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Grid-Scale Impact of Climate Change and Human Influence on Soil Erosion within East African Highlands (Kagera Basin)

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18052775 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (5) ◽

pp. 2775

Author(s):

Chaodong Li ◽

Zhanbin Li ◽

Mingyi Yang ◽

Bo Ma ◽

Baiqun Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Human Activities ◽

Global Climate ◽

Qualitative Assessment ◽

Human Influence ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Soil Erosion Rate ◽

East African Highlands ◽

The Impact

Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, soil erosion is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Kagera basin (KB). However, few studies in this region have comprehensively considered the impact of climate change and human influence on soil erosion, and the associated processes are unclear. Based on the premise of quantifying climate change, human influence, and soil erosion, this study undertook a neighborhood analysis as the theoretical support, for a grey relation analysis which was conducted to realize the qualitative assessment of the influence of climate change and human activities on soil erosion. The results show that 90.32% of the KB saw climate change as having a greater influence on soil erosion than human influence, with the remaining area 9.68% seeing human influence having a greater impact than climate change, mainly as a result of the effect of rangeland and farmland. The average soil erosion rate of the KB shows a very low level (10.54 t ha−1 yr−1), with rangeland and farmland being the main land use/land cover (LULC) types that see soil loss, followed by forest, wetland, and built-up areas. The climate change trends of the KB show the most dramatic changes in the northeast and southwest, gradually decreasing towards the line crossing from the Birunga National Park (Rwanda) to the Keza district (Tanzania). The human influence intensity (HII) shows a high level in the KB (21.93), where it is higher in the west and lower in the east of the basin.

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Changes of vegetation and its forces driving in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202126901013 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 269 ◽

pp. 01013

Author(s):

Xiangye Zhang ◽

Hailong Liu ◽

Hui Chen

Keyword(s):

Climatic Factors ◽

Population Data ◽

Aral Sea ◽

Data Sets ◽

Forest Land ◽

Aral Sea Basin ◽

The Past ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact

Global change brings great uncertainty to the fragile ecological environment of arid area. In order to understand the driving role of climatic factors and socio-economic activity on changes, the distribution and change of vegetation in the Aral Sea basin were examined using data from remote sensing, population data sets from 2000 to 2015, transfer matrix, and the centre of gravity model. The salient results of the analysis were as follows. (1) Although the index increased slightly in the past 20 years overall, it fluctuated greatly over that time. From 2000 to 2015, the NDVI decreased in approximately 62% of the area; increased in 24%; and remained unchanged in 14%. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the geographic centre of the area under forest land to the northeast, marking the advancement of urbanization upstream. The geographic centre of grassland moved to the west. (3) The overall impact of precipitation on vegetation was greater than that of temperature. Areas showing a strong correlation were mostly concentrated in forest land; the impact of precipitation on grasslands was weak. (4) The distribution of vegetation was adversely affected by the increase in population and in GDP. The present study is of particular significance to the restoration and reconstruction of the Aral Sea basin ecosystem.

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Impacts of Climate and Anthropogenic Activities on Streamflow Regimes in the Beiluo River, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w13202892 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (20) ◽

pp. 2892

Author(s):

Zhibo Xie ◽

Xingmin Mu ◽

Peng Gao ◽

Changxue Wu ◽

Dexun Qiu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Human Activities ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Annual Streamflow ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

Significant Downward Trend ◽

The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the characteristics of river streamflow variation and conducting research on attribution identification are the basis for formulating climate-change response strategies and rational use of water resources. Based on the daily streamflow data of the Zhuangtou Hydrological Station in 1970–2018, this paper analyzes the streamflow changes in the Beiluo River Basin and studies the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the streamflow in this basin. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were used to determine the trend and detect abrupt changes of streamflow and baseflow. The method based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the double-mass curve of precipitation–streamflow, was established to evaluate the impact of climate change and non-climate factors on annual streamflow. The results reveal a statistically significant downward trend (p = 0.01) in both annual streamflow and baseflow, with the abrupt point year in 1994 and 1988, respectively. When comparing to a modest declining trend in annual average precipitation, we see that the temperature showed a significant upward trend (p = 0.01), whose abrupt point year was 1996. Under the policy of returning farmland to forest, land-use analysis shows that the area of farmland had decreased by 222.4 km2, of which 31.4% was mainly converted into the forestland. By the end of 2015, the area of forestland had increased by 123.4 km2, which has largely caused streamflow decrease. For the method based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, climate change contributed 43.7% of the annual streamflow change, and human activities (mainly refers to LUCC) contributed 56.3%. For the DMC of precipitation–streamflow, the precipitation contributed 9.4%, and non-precipitation factors (mainly refers to human activities) contributed 90.6%, and human activities played a more vital part in driving streamflow reduction in different decades, with a contribution rate of more than 70%. This study is of great practical significance to the planning, management, development and utilization of water resources in basins.

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ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON RUNOFF IN THE DONGTING LAKE BASIN OF CHINA

Applied Ecology and Environmental Research ◽

10.15666/aeer/1703_57975812 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

Author(s):

J ZHOU

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Human Activities ◽

Dongting Lake ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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Impact of climate change on the precipitation pattern of district Sargodha, Pakistan

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ◽

10.1108/ijccsm-10-2015-0147 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 21-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Muhammad Mobeen ◽

Haroon Ahmed ◽

Fahad Ullah ◽

Muhammad Omar Riaz ◽

Irfan Mustafa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Pattern ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Precipitation Pattern ◽

Agricultural Practice ◽

Content Type ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Past ◽

The Impact

Purpose Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation pattern of district Sargodha is one of the most significant researchable questions because of the massive reliance on rainfall for agricultural practice in the study area. The pattern of current rainfall in the study area is unexpectedly changed. The purpose of the present study is to examine the changing precipitation pattern and to link it with climate change. Design/methodology/approach The study was conducted by using rainfall data of the past 30 years collected from 8 meteorological stations around the study area. The averages of rainfall on monthly basis were temporally arranged, and the fluctuation trends were studied using GIS and statistics. The temporal data of rainfall were compared and contrasted with the precipitation normals of the study area from 1981to 2010. The rainfall deviation in the present study was calculated. The spatial pattern of rainfall was plotted by interpolating the eight points of Punjab around the study area for the first two decades, whereas the past decade was analysed by incorporating five more points of Tehsils in the existing eight. The spatial and statistical representation of data were examined by compare and contrast with the previous findings. Findings The rainfall in the study area showed remarkable changes in magnitude and spatiality. The rainfall in the district is on the rise, whereas the spatial pattern of rainfall is becoming more complex and anomalous in character. This paper provides convincing evidence about the impact of climate change on the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation in the study area. Practical implications It will be helpful for understanding the shifts in the rainfall pattern in future as well as for the preparation of response to the issue of climate change and its impacts. Originality/value The current manuscript, for the very first time, provided detailed insights about the precipitation pattern shifting during the last 30 years in district Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan. Furthermore, agricultural sector would likely get severally affected because of seasonal changes in climatic factors like rainfall and have strong food security implications. The current findings will be useful to manage the climate change-related issues in Pakistan and helpful for the policy makers to design a coping strategy for climate change impacts.

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