scholarly journals Forecasting Compound Floods in Complex Coastal Regions

Eos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Moghimi ◽  
Edward Myers ◽  
Shachak Pe’eri ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
Fei Yi

Coastal communities face more frequent floods in which rain, rivers, and ocean storm surge combine forces. A reliable system that accurately predicts inundation from these events is urgently needed.

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1509
Author(s):  
Yuanyi Li ◽  
Huan Feng ◽  
Guillaume Vigouroux ◽  
Dekui Yuan ◽  
Guangyu Zhang ◽  
...  

A storm surge is a complex phenomenon in which waves, tide and current interact. Even though wind is the predominant force driving the surge, waves and tidal phase are also important factors that influence the mass and momentum transport during the surge. Devastating storm surges often occur in the Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed shallow sea in North China, due to extreme storms. However, the effects of waves on storm surges in the Bohai Sea have not been quantified and the mechanisms responsible for the higher surges that affect part of the Bohai Sea have not been thoroughly studied. In this study, we set up a storm surge model, considering coupled effects of tides and waves on the surges. Validation against measured data shows that the coupled model is capable of simulating storm surges in the Bohai Sea. The simulation results indicate that the longshore currents, which are induced by the large gradient of radiation stress due to wave deformation, are one of the main contributors to the higher surges occurring in some coastal regions. The gently varying bathymetry is another factor contributing to these surges. With such bathymetry, the wave force direction is nearly uniform, and pushes a large amount of water in that direction. Under these conditions, the water accumulates in some parts of the coast, leading to higher surges in nearby coastal regions such as the south coast of the Bohai Bay and the west and south coasts of the Laizhou Bay. Results analysis also shows that the tidal phase at which the surge occurs influences the wave–current interactions, and these interactions are more evident in shallow waters. Neglecting these interactions can lead to inaccurate predictions of the storm surges due to overestimation or underestimation of wave-induced set-up.


Author(s):  
Thomas Prime

The marine environment represents a large and important resource for communities around the world. However, the marine environment increasingly presents hazards that can have a large negative impact. One important marine hazard results from storms and their accompanying surges. This can lead to coastal flooding, particularly when surge and astronomical high tides align, with resultant impacts such as destruction of property, saline degradation of agricultural land and coastal erosion. Where tide and storm surge information are provided and accessed in a timely, accurate and understandable way, the data can provide: 1. Evidence for planning: Statistics of past conditions such as the probability of extreme event occurrence can be used to help plan improvements to coastal infrastructure that are able to withstand and mitigate the hazard from a given extreme event. 2. Early warning systems: Short term forecasts of storm surge allow provide early warnings to coastal communities enabling them to take actions to allow them to withstand extreme events, e.g. deploy flood prevention measures or mobilise emergency response measures. Data regarding sea level height can be provided from various in-situ observations such as tide gauges and remote observations such as satellite altimetry. However, to provide a forecast at high spatial and temporal resolution a dynamic ocean model is used. Over recent decades the National Oceanography Centre has been a world leading in developing coastal ocean models. This paper will present our progress on a current project to develop an information system for the Madagascan Met Office. The project, C-RISC, being executed in partnership with Sea Level Research Ltd, is translating the current modelling capability of NOC in storm surge forecasting and tidal prediction into a system that will provide information that can be easily transferred to other regions and is scalable to include other hazard types The outcome, an operational high-resolution storm surge warning system that is easy to relocate, will directly benefit coastal communities, giving them information they need to make effective decisions before and during extreme storm surge events.


2020 ◽  
Vol 264 ◽  
pp. 110457 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Salim Uddin ◽  
C. Emdad Haque ◽  
David Walker ◽  
Mahed-Ul-Islam Choudhury

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Challender ◽  

Hurricane Sandy caused critical damage to subterranean infrastructure in New York and also claimed 285 human lives across the Eastern Seaboard. The storm surge impact easily overwhelmed existing pumping systems, devastating power supply and paralyzing transport. Despite extensive preparations and pre-storm public information efforts, inundation and underground flooding caused causalities. The size of the disaster, sheer scope of damage and multifaceted response spanning the onset through to the recovery phase provides useful lessons for Japan, given its vulnerability to similar storm surges and flooding disasters, such as the Ise Bay Typhoon of 1959. Given this, a delegation composed of members of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) and Researchers from Japan’s Universities and Academic Societies working in disaster prevention conducted two surveys in 2013 and 2014. This involved hearing from emergency management officers in New York, Washington D.C and coastal communities about their experiences evacuating vulnerable residents and protecting critical infrastructure. The author of this paper was a member of both delegations. Based on fieldwork from these joint surveys and other materials, this paper outlines the scope of the damage that a storm of Sandy’s size was capable of inflicting, and looks at lessons applicable to Japan for preventing similar damage to infrastructure and human life in future storm surge events, and discusses how New York is attempting to become a more resilient city in preparation for the next flooding or storm surge disaster.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Payne ◽  
Manja Kudahl ◽  
Georg H. Engelhard ◽  
Myron A. Peck ◽  
John K. Pinnegar

AbstractWith the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, identifying the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritising the finite resources available to support adaptation. Here we apply a climate-risk analysis across the European fisheries sector for the first time to identify the most at-risk fleets and sub-national regions. We combine a trait-based approach with ecological niche models to differentiate climate hazards between populations of fish and use them to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in SE Europe and the UK have the highest risks to both their fishing fleets and their communities while, in other countries, the risk-profile is greatest at either the fleet or community level. These results reveal the diversity of challenges posed by climate-change to European fisheries: climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country’s and even each region’s specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where adaptation measures are needed and could have the greatest impact.


Author(s):  
Catalina Gonzalez-Duenas ◽  
Jamie E. Padgett

Coastal regions are exposed to both chronic and punctuated hazards, such as sea level rise and hurricane events, that can jeopardize entire coastal communities. Therefore, to effectively assess the risk and resilience of coastal communities subjected to multi-hazard environments, evaluation of the capacity of individual structures and infrastructure systems to withstand the different time-varying demands imposed in coastal settings is of paramount importance. This study proposes a comprehensive probabilistic framework for the design, risk and resilience assessment of coastal structures. The methodology also provides useful tools to inform decision-making, facilitate recovery efforts and improve resource allocation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/8SI3Dw30yes


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