Defining Victory: Three Case Studies of Strategic Guidance and Decision Making

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Vizzard ◽  
Keyword(s):  

This is the first book to treat the major examples of megadrought and societal collapse, from the late Pleistocene end of hunter–gatherer culture and origins of cultivation to the 15th century AD fall of the Khmer Empire capital at Angkor, and ranging from the Near East to South America. Previous enquiries have stressed the possible multiple and internal causes of collapse, such overpopulation, overexploitation of resources, warfare, and poor leadership and decision-making. In contrast, Megadrought and Collapse presents case studies of nine major episodes of societal collapse in which megadrought was the major and independent cause of societal collapse. In each case the most recent paleoclimatic evidence for megadroughts, multiple decades to multiple centuries in duration, is presented alongside the archaeological records for synchronous societal collapse. The megadrought data are derived from paleoclimate proxy sources (lake, marine, and glacial cores; speleothems, or cave stalagmites; and tree-rings) and are explained by researchers directly engaged in their analysis. Researchers directly responsible for them discuss the relevant current archaeological records. Two arguments are developed through these case studies. The first is that societal collapse in different time periods and regions and at levels of social complexity ranging from simple foragers to complex empires would not have occurred without megadrought. The second is that similar responses to megadrought extend across these historical episodes: societal collapse in the face of insurmountable climate change, abandonment of settlements and regions, and habitat tracking to sustainable agricultural landscapes. As we confront megadrought today, and in the likely future, Megadrought and Collapse brings together the latest contributions to our understanding of past societal responses to the crisis on an equally global and diverse scale.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5848
Author(s):  
Isaías Gomes ◽  
Rui Melicio ◽  
Victor M. F. Mendes

This paper presents a computer application to assist in decisions about sustainability enhancement due to the effect of shifting demand from less favorable periods to periods that are more convenient for the operation of a microgrid. Specifically, assessing how the decisions affect the economic participation of the aggregating agent of the microgrid bidding in an electricity day-ahead market. The aggregating agent must manage microturbines, wind systems, photovoltaic systems, energy storage systems, and loads, facing load uncertainty and further uncertainties due to the use of renewable sources of energy and participation in the day-ahead market. These uncertainties cannot be removed from the decision making, and, therefore, require proper formulation, and the proposed approach customizes a stochastic programming problem for this operation. Case studies show that under these uncertainties and the shifting of demand to convenient periods, there are opportunities to make decisions that lead to significant enhancements of the expected profit. These enhancements are due to better bidding in the day-ahead market and shifting energy consumption in periods of favorable market prices for exporting energy. Through the case studies it is concluded that the proposed approach is useful for the operation of a microgrid.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 292
Author(s):  
Megan Seeley ◽  
Gregory P. Asner

As humans continue to alter Earth systems, conservationists look to remote sensing to monitor, inventory, and understand ecosystems and ecosystem processes at large spatial scales. Multispectral remote sensing data are commonly integrated into conservation decision-making frameworks, yet imaging spectroscopy, or hyperspectral remote sensing, is underutilized in conservation. The high spectral resolution of imaging spectrometers captures the chemistry of Earth surfaces, whereas multispectral satellites indirectly represent such surfaces through band ratios. Here, we present case studies wherein imaging spectroscopy was used to inform and improve conservation decision-making and discuss potential future applications. These case studies include a broad array of conservation areas, including forest, dryland, and marine ecosystems, as well as urban applications and methane monitoring. Imaging spectroscopy technology is rapidly developing, especially with regard to satellite-based spectrometers. Improving on and expanding existing applications of imaging spectroscopy to conservation, developing imaging spectroscopy data products for use by other researchers and decision-makers, and pioneering novel uses of imaging spectroscopy will greatly expand the toolset for conservation decision-makers.


Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Janette Hartz-Karp ◽  
Dora Marinova

This article expands the evidence about integrative thinking by analyzing two case studies that applied the collaborative decision-making method of deliberative democracy which encourages representative, deliberative and influential public participation. The four-year case studies took place in Western Australia, (1) in the capital city Perth and surrounds, and (2) in the city-region of Greater Geraldton. Both aimed at resolving complex and wicked urban sustainability challenges as they arose. The analysis suggests that a new way of thinking, namely integrative thinking, emerged during the deliberations to produce operative outcomes for decision-makers. Building on theory and research demonstrating that deliberative designs lead to improved reasoning about complex issues, the two case studies show that through discourse based on deliberative norms, participants developed different mindsets, remaining open-minded, intuitive and representative of ordinary people’s basic common sense. This spontaneous appearance of integrative thinking enabled sound decision-making about complex and wicked sustainability-related urban issues. In both case studies, the participants exhibited all characteristics of integrative thinking to produce outcomes for decision-makers: salience—grasping the problems’ multiple aspects; causality—identifying multiple sources of impacts; sequencing—keeping the whole in view while focusing on specific aspects; and resolution—discovering novel ways that avoided bad choice trade-offs.


Author(s):  
Siamak Farshidi ◽  
Slinger Jansen ◽  
Sven Fortuin

AbstractModel-driven development platforms shift the focus of software development activity from coding to modeling for enterprises. A significant number of such platforms are available in the market. Selecting the best fitting platform is challenging, as domain experts are not typically model-driven deployment platform experts and have limited time for acquiring the needed knowledge. We model the problem as a multi-criteria decision-making problem and capture knowledge systematically about the features and qualities of 30 alternative platforms. Through four industry case studies, we confirm that the model supports decision-makers with the selection problem by reducing the time and cost of the decision-making process and by providing a richer list of options than the enterprises considered initially. We show that having decision knowledge readily available supports decision-makers in making more rational, efficient, and effective decisions. The study’s theoretical contribution is the observation that the decision framework provides a reliable approach for creating decision models in software production.


Author(s):  
S. M. Amin Hosseini ◽  
Albert de la Fuente ◽  
Oriol Pons ◽  
Carmen Mendoza Arroyo

AbstractOne of the main challenges in assisting displaced persons who have lost their homes as a result of a natural hazard is the provision of adequate post-disaster accommodations, such as temporary housing. Although the need for temporary housing has increased around the world in recent years, it has been criticized on economic, environmental, and social grounds. A universal approach to post-disaster accommodations cannot successfully deal with this issue because each recovery process involves a unique set of conditions. Therefore, rather than defining a specific strategy, this study aims to present an approach capable of producing customized strategies based on contextual and social conditions. To this end, first, the main factors influencing the choice of post-disaster accommodations are identified through five case studies. It is concluded that all of the factors can be organized into three main vertices to simplify the highly complex issues involved in post-disaster accommodations. The case studies also show that the decision-making process consists of two main parts. To date, a recurring failure to distinguish between these two parts has led to unsuitable outcomes. Thus, this paper presents a new decision-making methodology, consisting of multiple steps, phases, and indicators based on the main vertices.


1999 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 585-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia Granados

This paper examines the rationality of the concepts underlying evidence—based medicineand health technology assessment (HTA), which are part of a new current aimed at promoting the use of the results of scientific studies for decision making in health care. It describes the different approaches and purposes of this worldwide movement, in relation to clinical decision making, through a summarized set of specific HTA case studies from Catalonia, Spain. The examples illustrate how the systematic process of HTA can help in several types of uncertainties related to clinical decision making.


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