Megadrought and Collapse

This is the first book to treat the major examples of megadrought and societal collapse, from the late Pleistocene end of hunter–gatherer culture and origins of cultivation to the 15th century AD fall of the Khmer Empire capital at Angkor, and ranging from the Near East to South America. Previous enquiries have stressed the possible multiple and internal causes of collapse, such overpopulation, overexploitation of resources, warfare, and poor leadership and decision-making. In contrast, Megadrought and Collapse presents case studies of nine major episodes of societal collapse in which megadrought was the major and independent cause of societal collapse. In each case the most recent paleoclimatic evidence for megadroughts, multiple decades to multiple centuries in duration, is presented alongside the archaeological records for synchronous societal collapse. The megadrought data are derived from paleoclimate proxy sources (lake, marine, and glacial cores; speleothems, or cave stalagmites; and tree-rings) and are explained by researchers directly engaged in their analysis. Researchers directly responsible for them discuss the relevant current archaeological records. Two arguments are developed through these case studies. The first is that societal collapse in different time periods and regions and at levels of social complexity ranging from simple foragers to complex empires would not have occurred without megadrought. The second is that similar responses to megadrought extend across these historical episodes: societal collapse in the face of insurmountable climate change, abandonment of settlements and regions, and habitat tracking to sustainable agricultural landscapes. As we confront megadrought today, and in the likely future, Megadrought and Collapse brings together the latest contributions to our understanding of past societal responses to the crisis on an equally global and diverse scale.

2021 ◽  
pp. 162-178
Author(s):  
Cynthia Rayner ◽  
François Bonnici

This book asks a rather simple but bold question: “How do organizations create systemic social change?” This question is growing in importance, becoming part of the strategic conversation for all types of organizations, not just those specifically focused on social change. Business leaders, politicians, educators, employees, and parents are grappling with the realization that complex social change can rapidly impact their everyday lives. As frustration at the slow pace of change grows, and the world’s wicked problems—such as inequality, climate change and racial justice—proliferate, people are increasingly recognizing that we need to find ways to tackle the root causes of these issues rather than just addressing the symptoms. In the face of these challenges, it is easy to default to our more traditional views of leadership and problem-solving, which celebrate an us-versus-them mentality, top-down decision-making, and aggressive power stances. Systems work—with its focus on the process of change including our day-to-day actions and relationships—may feel counterintuitive in this rapidly emerging future. Yet, as the authors’ research has shown, the future is demanding a different kind of leadership, one that emphasizes the ways we work as much as the outcomes we pursue.


Author(s):  
P. E. Perkins ◽  
B. Osman

Abstract This chapter explores the livelihood and care implications of the climate crisis from a gendered viewpoint that includes the implications of this approach for climate decision making at multiple scales, from local to global. The focus is on grassroots political organizing, activism, and movements as well as women's community-based actions to (re)build social resilience in the face of climate chaos. Challenges and policy implications are discussed as governments struggle to meaningfully and equitably address climate change. Also highlighted are the transformational imperatives of care and livelihood priorities which cast into stark relief the unsustainability of the long-established gender inequities that serve as the foundation for economic systems everywhere.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 907
Author(s):  
Kara DiFrancesco ◽  
Alix Gitelman ◽  
David Purkey

The hydrologic nonstationarity and uncertainty associated with climate change requires new decision-making methods to incorporate climate change impacts into flood frequency and flood risk analyses. To aid decision-making under climate change, we developed a bottom-up approach for assessing the performance of flood management systems under climate uncertainty and nonstationarity. The developed bottom-up approach was applied to the American River, CA, USA flood management system by first identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system to different climates. To do this, we developed a climate response surface by calculating and plotting Expected Annual Damages (EAD, $/year) under different flood regimes. Next, we determined a range of plausible future climate change and flood frequency scenarios by applying Bayesian statistical methods to projected future flows derived from a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with Global Circulation Model (GCM) output. We measured system robustness as the portion of plausible future scenarios under which the current flood system could meet its performance goal. Using this approach, we then evaluated the robustness of four proposed management strategies in the 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan in terms of both flood risk and cost-effectiveness, to assess the performance of the strategies in the face of climate risks. Results indicated that the high sensitivity of the expected damages to changes in flood regimes makes the system extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the plausible range of future flood conditions. The management strategy that includes a combination of nature-based flood management actions along with engineered structures yields the greatest potential to increase system robustness in terms of maintaining EAD below an acceptable risk threshold. However, this strategy still leaves the system vulnerable to a wide range of plausible future conditions. As flood frequency regimes increase in intensity from the current conditions, the cost-effectiveness of the management strategies increases, to a point, before decreasing. This bottom up analysis demonstrated a viable decision-making approach for water managers in the face of uncertain and changing future conditions. Neglecting to use such an approach and omitting climate considerations from water resource planning could lead to strategies that do not perform as expected or which actually lead to mal-adaptations, increasing vulnerability to climate change.


2020 ◽  
pp. 251-258
Author(s):  
Anders Esmark

Taking up the case of climate change, the conclusion considers the argument for moretechnocracy in the face of ‘the end world as we know it’. Climate change is probably the strongest case for a technocratic model of political decision-making. At the very least, insufficient political adherence to the scientific evidence on climate change is an almost commonsensical part of the problem of in the current state of affairs. While fully acknowledging this problem, the chapter argues that attention to the destructive and mutually reinforcing interplay of technocracy and populism is necessary also in to the all-important challenge of climate change.


Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ortiz-Urbina ◽  
González-Pachón ◽  
Diaz-Balteiro

The degree of complexity in forest management has increased in the last few decades, not only due to the inclusion of specific new issues (e.g., climate change, social protection, etc.), but also because these new, as well as classic, issues have to be dealt with in a context characterised by multiple conflicting criteria that are evaluated by different stakeholders. Nowadays, the multicriteria issue enjoys a relatively sound tradition in forest management. However, the consideration of several stakeholders, which requires the formulation of management models within a collective decision-making setting, is not that advanced. This paper aims to provide a critical overview of forestry case studies that have been published in primary journals and that deal with multiple criteria and several stakeholders. Based on this overview, some highlights of the most promising methods were obtained, and recommendations for the fruitful use of these combined methodologies for dealing with numerous types of forest management problems are provided.


Author(s):  
Sabine Troeger

AbstractPastoralists’ livelihoods in Africa are highly endangered by adverse forces – the climate change being one among those. Against this background, climate change adaptation is conceptualized as strategic agency in the field of risk-laden livelihood environments, that is, agency in the face of risky options and non-calculable uncertainties.The chapter conceptualizes pastoralists’ livelihoods exposed to a four-fold hierarchy of environmental risks and forces defining the actors’ arena of strategic decision making: From the global scale of ever extending impacts by the climate change imperative, to the national scale of government policies in terms of decentralization, challenging people to govern and define their communal efforts in terms of climate change adaptation, and down to the regional scale, which in the presented case is dominated by a large-scale investment, the Kuraz Sugar Development Project, which again confronts local actors with adverse forces toward villagization and eviction from pasture grounds. Right at the end of this hierarchy and in accordance with discourses on “climate services,” the end-users and local actors, the pastoralists, are confronted with and offered a product that they can input into their decision making: cattle feed from the residues of the irrigated sugar cane. The question remains whether substantive aspects of processes turning into true environmental and social justice in terms of recognition, procedures, and distribution will be paid attention to.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth L. Mclean ◽  
Austin Becker

Climate change and extreme weather events put in peril the critical coastal infrastructure that is vital to economies, livelihoods, and sustainability. However, for a variety of reasons, decision makers often do not implement potential adaptation strategies to plan and adjust to climate and extreme weather events. To respond to the question of how seaport decision makers perceive strategies to overcome the barriers to adaptation we used semi-structured interviews of 30 seaport directors/managers, environmental specialists, and safety managers from 15 medium- and high-use ports of the U.S. North Atlantic. This paper contributes four broad strategies identified by seaport decision makers as necessary to help them advance on this challenge: funding, better planning or guidance, research and education, and advocacy/lobbying. We coded these strategies parallel to our partner paper that identified seven key barriers faced by the same set of decision makers. Results can help direct resources in ways targeted to the needs of seaport decision makers. The proposed framework contributes to theories of resilience building and barriers to decision making. Being strategic about change facilitates effective adaptation, decreasing risk, and enables continuity of safe, and sustainable, operations of U.S. seaports in the face of climate and extreme weather events.


Author(s):  
Sabine Troeger

AbstractPastoralists’ livelihoods in Africa are highly endangered by adverse forces – the climate change being one among those. Against this background, climate change adaptation is conceptualized as strategic agency in the field of risk-laden livelihood environments, that is, agency in the face of risky options and non-calculable uncertainties.The chapter conceptualizes pastoralists’ livelihoods exposed to a four-fold hierarchy of environmental risks and forces defining the actors’ arena of strategic decision making: From the global scale of ever extending impacts by the climate change imperative, to the national scale of government policies in terms of decentralization, challenging people to govern and define their communal efforts in terms of climate change adaptation, and down to the regional scale, which in the presented case is dominated by a large-scale investment, the Kuraz Sugar Development Project, which again confronts local actors with adverse forces toward villagization and eviction from pasture grounds. Right at the end of this hierarchy and in accordance with discourses on “climate services,” the end-users and local actors, the pastoralists, are confronted with and offered a product that they can input into their decision making: cattle feed from the residues of the irrigated sugar cane. The question remains whether substantive aspects of processes turning into true environmental and social justice in terms of recognition, procedures, and distribution will be paid attention to.


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