Extreme weather forecast for North America

Nature ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 551 (7682) ◽  
pp. 545-545
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather

scholarly journals A Mental Models Study of Hurricane Forecast and Warning Production, Communication, and Decision-Making*

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Bostrom ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Heather Lazrus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Mental Models ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Action Context ◽  
Risk Decision

Abstract The study reported here explores how to enhance the public value of hurricane forecast and warning information by examining the entire warning process. A mental models research approach is applied to address three risk management tasks critical to warnings for extreme weather events: 1) understanding the risk decision and action context for hurricane warnings, 2) understanding the commonalities and conflicts in interpretations of that context and associated risks, and 3) exploring the practical implications of these insights for hurricane risk communication and management. To understand the risk decision and action context, the study develops a decision-focused model of the hurricane forecast and warning system on the basis of results from individual mental models interviews with forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (n = 4) and the Miami–South Florida Weather Forecast Office (n = 4), media broadcasters (n = 5), and public officials (n = 6), as well as a group decision-modeling session with a subset of the forecasters. Comparisons across professionals reveal numerous shared perceptions, as well as some critical differences. Implications for improving extreme weather event forecast and warning systems and risk communication are threefold: 1) promote thinking about forecast and warning decisions as a system, with informal as well as formal elements; 2) evaluate, coordinate, and consider controlling the proliferation of forecast and warning information products; and 3) further examine the interpretation and representation of uncertainty within the hurricane forecast and warning system as well as for users.

scholarly journals Development of Verification Methodology for Extreme Weather Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 479-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Guan ◽  
Yuejian Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Verification Methodology

Abstract In 2006, the statistical postprocessing of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) was implemented to enhance probabilistic guidance. Anomaly forecasting (ANF) is one of the NAEFS products, generated from bias-corrected ensemble forecasts and reanalysis climatology. The extreme forecast index (EFI), based on a raw ensemble forecast and model-based climatology, is another way to build an extreme weather forecast. In this work, the ANF and EFI algorithms are applied to extreme cold temperature and extreme precipitation forecasts during the winter of 2013/14. A highly correlated relationship between the ANF and EFI allows the determination of two sets of thresholds to identify extreme cold and extreme precipitation events for the two algorithms. An EFI of −0.78 (0.687) is approximately equivalent to a −2σ (0.95) ANF for the extreme cold event (extreme precipitation) forecast. The performances of the two algorithms in forecasting extreme cold events are verified against analysis for different model versions, reference climatology, and forecasts. The verification results during the winter of 2013/14 indicate that ANF forecasts more extreme cold events with a slightly higher skill than EFI. The bias-corrected forecast performs much better than the raw forecast. The current upgrade of the GEFS has a beneficial effect on the extreme cold weather forecast. Using the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) as a climate reference gives a slightly better score than the 40-yr reanalysis. The verification methodology is also extended to an extreme precipitation case, showing a broad potential use in the future.

scholarly journals The Polar Vortex and Extreme Weather: The Beast from the East in Winter 2018

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 664 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Overland ◽  
Richard Hall ◽  
Edward Hanna ◽  
Alexey Karpechko ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Cold Surface ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Weather Events

Public attention has recently focused on high-impact extreme weather events in midlatitudes that originate in the sub-Arctic. We investigate movements of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and related changes in lower atmospheric circulation during the February-March 2018 “Beast from the East” cold winter event that dramatically affected much of Europe and north-central North America. This study demonstrates that the movement of the SPV is a key linkage in late winter subarctic and northern midlatitude extreme weather events. February–March 2018 saw two types of subarctic-midlatitude weather connections. In the first type, the SPV was displaced from the pole to lower latitudes over North America in February and then was found over northern Siberia in March. Mid-February and mid-March are examples of persistent near vertically aligned geopotential height structures of the atmospheric circulation. These structures over North America and Eurasia advected cold Arctic air southward. The second type of cold surface event was associated with a weak regional SPV and a sudden stratospheric warming event over Europe during the second half of February. These late winter linkage events that arise through dynamic instabilities of the SPV are more common in the last decade, but the potential role of enhanced Arctic amplification is uncertain.

scholarly journals Periodicity in Extreme Weather in the ‘Maritime Region’ of Eastern North America

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carling Ruth Walsh ◽  
R. Timothy Patterson
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
North America ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Spectral and wavelet analysis were used to identify trends and cycles in extreme temperature and precipitation events based on historical data (~100-150 years) from six climate stations within the “Maritime Region” of eastern North America. Many statistically significant climate cycles were identified using both spectral and Morlet wavelet analyses at each of these locations for both extreme high and low temperature and precipitation (rain, snow) data, with periodicities typically ranging from ~ 2–30 years. To assess potential drivers of these cyclical extreme weather events, the records of these events were compared, using cross wavelet analysis, to the climate indices of several teleconnections, including the 11-year Schwabe solar cycle, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation. It was found that the 11-year solar cycle had the strongest influence over extreme temperature and precipitation in this region, whereas the remaining oscillations, with the exception the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation, exhibited complex interactions with one another, characterized a variety of both positive and negative modulating effects. The Quasi–Biennial Oscillation was found to drive high–frequency oscillations in extreme weather, particularly extreme precipitation. Overall, the findings of this study indicate that extreme weather events in this region have not substantially increased or decreased in number over time, but have been predominantly influenced by several cyclic climate phenomena.

scholarly journals Fishers’ Perceptions and Attitudes toward Weather and Climate Information Services for Climate Change Adaptation in Senegal

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9465
Author(s):  
Ndèye Seynabou Diouf ◽  
Issa Ouedraogo ◽  
Robert B. Zougmoré ◽  
Madické Niang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Adoption Rate

Climate variability has become a major issue for vital sectors in the context of climate change. In fisheries, in particular, the effects of climate change are reflected in the decline of fishing yield and loss of lives during extreme weather events in the sea. This study analyzed the perception of climate variability and change by fisher-folks, the attitude of fisher-folks toward the weather forecast and the adoption rate of the use of the weather forecast as well as the factors determining its use in Senegal. To this end, 576 fisher-folks belonging to 41 local fishing committees along the coastal areas were surveyed and focus group discussions were organized with key informants. The adoption rate was identified using the method of the average treatment effect (ATE) and the test of independency (chi-square) was used to analyze the perceptions of and beliefs on climate change. The results showed that 96% of fisher-folks perceive the change in the climate, though the effects are differently appreciated across the coastline. The most frequently observed effects are: coastal erosion, change in wind direction, increase in extreme swells and sea level rise. Nearly half of fisher-folks confirm that they noticed these changes over the past five years. In the Southern Coast in particular, 40% of fisher-folks stated that these changes happened 10 years ago. This statement is confirmed by the qualitative data. More than 90% of the respondents ascertain the weather forecast before going to fish, 63% regularly receive the weather forecast and 53% avoid going to sea during extreme events. In addition, the results showed that if the weather forecast was made accessible to the majority of fisher-folks, more than 83% would avoid going to sea during periods of extreme weather extreme events, thus reducing significantly the number of fatalities. The best way to protect the fisher-folks from the harmful effects of climate change is to ensure large-scale access to and use of accurate weather forecasts.

scholarly journals A Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones Leading to Extreme Weather Events over Central and Eastern North America

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (5) ◽  
pp. 1471-1490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia M. Bentley ◽  
Lance F. Bosart ◽  
Daniel Keyser
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
South Central ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Central United States

Abstract Cool-season extreme weather events (EWEs) (i.e., high-impact weather events that are societally disruptive, geographically widespread, exceptionally prolonged, and climatologically infrequent) are typically associated with strong extratropical cyclones (ECs). The opportunity to investigate the genesis locations, tracks, and frequencies of ECs leading to EWEs over central and eastern North America and compare them to those of ordinary ECs forming over and traversing the same region motivates this study. ECs leading to EWEs are separated from ordinary ECs according to the magnitude, areal extent, and duration of their 925-hPa standardized wind speed anomalies in the 0.5° NCEP CFSR dataset. This separation allows for the construction of an October–March 1979–2016 climatology of ECs leading to EWEs over central and eastern North America. The climatology of ECs leading to EWEs over central and eastern North America reveals that these ECs typically form in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, over the south-central United States, and along the east coast of North America at latitudes equatorward of the typical genesis locations of ordinary ECs. ECs leading to EWEs exhibit equatorward-shifted tracks relative to ordinary ECs, likely associated with an equatorward shift in the position of the subtropical or polar-front jet. ECs leading to EWEs form most frequently in November and March, when the seasonal alignment of baroclinic and diabatic forcings is maximized. Similar to ordinary ECs, the genesis locations, tracks, and frequencies of ECs leading to EWEs are partially determined by the states of the Pacific–North American pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation.

Yes and No. How applicable is a focus on palaeo-weather?

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Detlef Gronenborn
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The Past ◽  
Environmental Experience ◽  
Weather Situation

Toby Pillatt is right. Weather is important. Weather is important every day, as is evident from almost every news broadcast we watch or hear. This is not only true for extreme weather situations – which currently abound in the news – but for ordinary weather conditions at any time. The importance is quite clearly reflected in the numerous weather channels and weather websites and the weather forecast at the end of every news programme. Despite the ‘benefits of civilization’ which today make us often independent of outside influences, many simple daily decisions are still based on the current weather situation. Weather is our first and most immediate environmental experience. It was no different in the past. On the contrary, weather-based decisions were much more important historically than at present, both for individuals and for entire societies. No doubt, then, weather should be of concern also for historical studies. Hence Toby Pillat is right. He is also correct in stating that by involving a palaeo-weather perspective we can add much to our understanding about how past societies operated.

scholarly journals The RISKMED project: philosophy, methods and products

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1393-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bartzokas ◽  
J. Azzopardi ◽  
L. Bertotti ◽  
A. Buzzi ◽  
L. Cavaleri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Space Distribution ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Graphic System ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract. This paper presents RISKMED, a project targeted to create an Early Warning System (EWS) in case of severe or extreme weather events in the central and eastern Mediterranean and specifically in southern Italy, northwestern Greece, Malta and Cyprus. As severe or extreme weather events are considered, cases when the values of some meteorological parameters (temperature, wind, precipitation) exceed certain thresholds, and/or a severe weather phenomenon (thunderstorm, snowfall) occurs. For an accurate weather forecast, selected meteorological models have been operated daily, based on a nesting strategy using two or three domains, providing detailed forecasts over the above mentioned areas. The forecast results are further exploited for the evaluation and prediction of human discomfort and fire weather indices. Finally, sea wave models have also been operating daily over the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. In case a severe or extreme weather event is forecasted within the next 48 or 72 h for selected target areas (sub-regions defined by their morphological and population characteristics), the local authorities and the public are informed via a user-friendly graphic system, the so-called RISK MAP. On the web page of the Project ( http://www.riskmed.net ), additional information is provided about the real-time values of some meteorological parameters, the latest satellite picture and the time and space distribution of lightning during the last 24 h. The RISKMED project was financed by the EU and th Ministries of National Economy of Greece, Italy, Malta and Cyprus, in the frame of INTERREG IIIB/ARCHIMED programme.

Microbarometer arrays for the monitoring of extreme weather in a changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jelle Assink
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Scientific Application ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Array Technology ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Test Ban

<p>A global network of microbarometer arrays has been installed for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) using infrasound. The microbarometers also measure pressure variations that are due to various meteorological phenomena, such as gravity waves, with a resolution that exceeds that of typical barometers. Moreover, the use of array technology allows for the estimation of wavefront parameters, which is information that can generally not be obtained from typical automatic weather stations.</p><p>The value of these high-resolution observations for the monitoring of extreme weather is discussed here, focusing on two recent extreme weather events in The Netherlands. Data from a dense observational network that includes lidar facilities and the Dutch microbarometer array network is compared to forecasts from global and regional weather forecast models to assess the forecast skill of the state-of-the-art weather models. The first-order agreement suggests that microbarometer arrays could provide valuable data for the development of next-generation weather forecast models. Such developments are useful for Early Warning Centers that report on severe weather outbreaks that can be disruptive for society and which are expected to occur more frequently in a changing climate.</p><p>This presentation demonstrates that the infrasound technology, as a civil and scientific application, could aid in the forecasting of extreme weather events that are predicted to occur more frequently in a changing climate.</p>

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