scholarly journals A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy E. Nivette ◽  
Renee Zahnow ◽  
Raul Aguilar ◽  
Andri Ahven ◽  
Shai Amram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Space ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Sudden Change ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Urban Crime ◽  
Substantial Variation ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

AbstractThe stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

scholarly journals Interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of alcohol control policy on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Lithuania: a study protocol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Manthey ◽  
Domantas Jasilionis ◽  
Huan Jiang ◽  
Olga Mesceriakova-Veliuliene ◽  
Janina Petkeviciene ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Research Ethics ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Inequalities In Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Introduction Alcohol use is a major risk factor for mortality. Previous studies suggest that the alcohol-attributable mortality burden is higher in lower socioeconomic strata. This project will test the hypothesis, that the 2017 increase of alcohol excise taxes for beer and wine, which was linked to lower all-cause mortality rates in previous analyses, will reduce socioeconomic mortality inequalities. Methods and analysis Data on all causes of deaths will be obtained from Statistics Lithuania. Record linkage will be implemented using personal identifiers combining data from 1) the 2011 whole-population census, 2) death records between March 1, 2011 (census date) and December 31, 2019, and 3) emigration records, for individuals aged 30 to 70 years. The analyses will be performed separately for all-cause and for alcohol-attributable deaths. Monthly age-standardized mortality rates will be calculated by sex, education, and three measures of socioeconomic status. Inequalities in mortality will be assessed using absolute and relative indicators between low and high SES groups. We will perform interrupted time series analyses, and test the impact of the 2017 rise in alcohol excise taxation using generalized additive mixed models. In these models, we will control for secular trends for economic development. Ethics and dissemination This work is part of project grant 1R01AA028224-01 by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. It has been granted research ethics approval 050/2020 by CAMH Research Ethics Board on April 17, 2020, renewed on March 30, 2021.

scholarly journals Initial impact of COVID-19’s stay-at-home order on motor vehicle traffic and crash patterns in Connecticut: an interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. injuryprev-2020-043945
Author(s):  
Mitchell L Doucette ◽  
Andrew Tucker ◽  
Marisa E Auguste ◽  
Amy Watkins ◽  
Christa Green ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Crash Rates ◽  
Single Vehicle ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

IntroductionUnderstanding how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted our health and safety is imperative. This study sought to examine the impact of COVID-19’s stay-at-home order on daily vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and MVCs in Connecticut.MethodsUsing an interrupted time series design, we analysed daily VMT and MVCs stratified by crash severity and number of vehicles involved from 1 January to 30 April 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. MVC data were collected from the Connecticut Crash Data Repository; daily VMT estimates were obtained from StreetLight Insight’s database. We used segmented Poisson regression models, controlling for daily temperature and daily precipitation.ResultsThe mean daily VMT significantly decreased 43% in the post stay-at-home period in 2020. While the mean daily counts of crashes decreased in 2020 after the stay-at-home order was enacted, several types of crash rates increased after accounting for the VMT reductions. Single vehicle crash rates significantly increased 2.29 times, and specifically single vehicle fatal crash rates significantly increased 4.10 times when comparing the pre-stay-at-home and post-stay-at-home periods.DiscussionDespite a decrease in the number of MVCs and VMT, the crash rate of single vehicles increased post stay-at-home order enactment in Connecticut after accounting for reductions in VMT.

scholarly journals Impact of nonpharmaceutical strategies on trends of COVID-19 in São Paulo State

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Cristiane Ravagnani Fortaleza ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Gabriel Berg de Almeida ◽  
Claudia Pio Ferreira ◽  
Lenice do Rosário de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mandatory Use

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted on March 22, 2020) and of subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted on May 4, 2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.

scholarly journals Impact of a National Immunisation Program on herpes zoster incidence in Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jialing Lin ◽  
Timothy Dobbins ◽  
James G Wood ◽  
Carla Bernardo ◽  
Nigel P Stocks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Herpes Zoster ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
National Program ◽  
Ecological Analysis ◽  
National Immunisation ◽  
National Immunisation Program ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Herpes Zoster Incidence

Summary Objectives: To evaluate the impact of the National Herpes Zoster (zoster) Immunisation Program in Australia on zoster incidence. Methods: Ecological analysis of zoster incidence related to timing of implementation of the national program in vaccine-targeted (70-79 years) and non-targeted age groups (60-69 and 80-89 years) during January 2013-December 2018 was estimated using interrupted time-series analyses. Results: Prior to program commencement (Jan 2013 to Oct 2016) in patients aged 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 years, incidence was mostly stable averaging respectively 7.2, 9.6 and 10.8 per 1000 person-years. In the two years following program commencement, incidence fell steadily in those aged 70-79 years, with an estimated decrease of 2.25 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.17) per 1000 person-years per year, with women having a greater decrease than men (2.83 versus 1.68, p-interaction<0.01). In the two non-vaccine-program-targeted age groups there was no evidence of reduction in zoster incidence: 60-69 years, 0.46 (95% CI: -0.46, 1.38) and 80-89 years, 0.11 (95% CI: -1.64, 1.87). Conclusions: Two years after implementation, an estimated 7000 zoster cases were prevented through the national program. With known waning vaccine efficacy, continued surveillance is needed to ensure these early reductions in incidence are sustained.

Authoritarianism and the Growth of the State in Latin America

1980 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Most
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Bureaucratic State

The discussion focuses on the effects that changing forms of authoritarian rule and the growth of a bureaucratic state had on A gentine public policies during the 1930-1970 interval. Hitherto quite separate literatures are brought together in the examination of two different arguments. The first, drawn from the emerging literature on authoritarianism and corporatism in Latin America, suggests that the trends in Argentine public policies should have been interrupted whenever different types of authoritarian coalitions sequentially replaced each other in power. The second thesis, drawn primarily from research on Latin American bureaucracies and North American policy analyses, suggests that there is a need to disaggregate the coalition/policy linkage. It hypothesizes that four factors which developed at about the midpoint of the 1930-1970 period in Argentina—the growth of a large and well-entrenched public sector, limitations on the ability of political elites to press their policy demands, limitations on previously uncommitted resources, and the existence of a crisis of hegemony—should have increasingly constrained the policy-making importance of the coalitions and the leaders who represented them in the highest levels of government. Coalitions and elites should have been increasingly unable to direct and indirect policies in the ways which they preferred. Interrupted time-series analyses of seven policy series provided support for the constraints thesis. Coalitions and those who governed at the top were once important in Argentina as the authoritarian literature suggests. Coalition changes did not occur in a vacuum, however. Once the four state-related constraints developed, such shifts came to have only marginal impacts on the examined policy indicators.

Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. GRABER ◽  
C. HUTCHINGS ◽  
F. DONG ◽  
W. LEE ◽  
J. K. CHUNG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Antibiotic Usage ◽  
Cross Resistance ◽  
Hospital Formulary ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Change In Mean

SUMMARYThere is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004–June 2005) and post- (July 2005–December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.

scholarly journals Effects of the FDA Codeine Safety Investigation on Racial and Geographic Disparities in Opioid Prescribing after Pediatric Tonsillectomy and/or Adenoidectomy

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 2333794X2098744
Author(s):  
Amy Lawrence ◽  
Jennifer N. Cooper ◽  
Katherine J. Deans ◽  
Peter C. Minneci ◽  
Sharon K. Wrona ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Opioid Prescription ◽  
White Children ◽  
Geographic Disparities ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Metropolitan Counties ◽  
The U.S

Objective. Our objective was to examine the impact of the U.S. FDA’s 2013 black box warning against codeine on codeine and other opioid prescription filling after pediatric tonsillectomy and/or adenoidectomy (T/A) overall and by child race and provider urbanity/rurality. Methods. Patients ≤ 18 who underwent T/A in 8/2011 to 8/2016 were identified in Ohio Medicaid claims. Interrupted time series analyses were used to evaluate the impact of the FDA warning on codeine or other opioid prescription filling post-T/A. Results. In August 2011, codeine prescription filling was lower among black than white children ( P < .001) and among children treated at institutions in metropolitan counties than less populous counties ( P < .001). The FDA warning was associated with a 24.0% drop in codeine prescription filling ( P < .001) and 5.5% increase in alternative opioid prescription filling ( P = .046). At conclusion, there remained geographic but no longer racial disparities in codeine prescribing. Conclusion. Codeine prescribing after pediatric T/A decreased after the FDA’s black box warning. However, geographic disparities in codeine prescribing remain.

Impact of opioid initiation on antipsychotic and benzodiazepine and related drug use among persons with Alzheimer's disease

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 947-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksi Hamina ◽  
Piia Lavikainen ◽  
Antti Tanskanen ◽  
Anna-Maija Tolppanen ◽  
Jari Tiihonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Opioid Use ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Related Drug ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTBackground:We analyzed the impact of opioid initiation on the prevalence of antipsychotic and benzodiazepine and related drug (BZDR) use among community-dwelling persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD).Methods:We utilized the register-based Medication use and Alzheimer's disease (MEDALZ) cohort for this study. We included all community-dwelling persons diagnosed with AD during 2010–2011 in Finland initiating opioid use (n = 3,327) and a matched cohort of persons not initiating opioids (n = 3,325). Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to compare the prevalence of antipsychotic and BZDR use in 30-day periods within six months before opioid initiation to 30-day periods six months later.Results:Before opioid initiation, prevalence of antipsychotic use among opioid initiators was 13.3%, 18.3% at opioid initiation, and 17.3% six months later. Prevalences of BZDR use were 27.1% six months prior, 28.9% at opioid initiation, and 26.9% six months later. After opioid initiation, antipsychotic and BZDR use declined by 0.3 percentage points (pps, 95% confidence interval 0.1–0.5) and 0.4 pps (0.2–0.7) per month, respectively, until the end of the follow-up. Compared to persons not initiating opioid use, opioid initiation immediately resulted in an increase in prevalence of 1.9 pps (0.9–2.8) for antipsychotics and of 1.6 pps (0.9–2.2) for BZDR use. However, in total there was a comparative decrease of 0.5 pps (0.3–0.8) per month for antipsychotics and of 0.4 pps (0.2–0.6) for BZDR use until the end of the follow-up.Conclusion:Our results suggest that opioid initiation may reduce antipsychotic and BZDR use among persons with AD.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad A. Alsallakh ◽  
◽  
Shanya Sivakumaran ◽  
Sharon Kennedy ◽  
Eleftheria Vasileiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Copd Exacerbations ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Severe Copd

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing national lockdowns have dramatically changed the healthcare landscape. The pandemic’s impact on people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains poorly understood. We hypothesised that the UK-wide lockdown restrictions were associated with reductions in severe COPD exacerbations. We provide the first national level analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown on severe COPD exacerbations resulting in emergency hospital admissions and/or leading to death as well as those recorded in primary care or emergency departments. Methods Using data from Public Health Scotland and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, we accessed weekly counts of emergency hospital admissions and deaths due to COPD over the first 30 weeks of 2020 and compared these to the national averages over the preceding 5 years. For both Scotland and Wales, we undertook interrupted time-series analyses to model the impact of instigating lockdown on these outcomes. Using fixed-effect meta-analysis, we derived pooled estimates of the overall changes in trends across the two nations. Results Lockdown was associated with 48% pooled reduction in emergency admissions for COPD in both countries (incidence rate ratio, IRR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.58), relative to the 5-year averages. There was no statistically significant change in deaths due to COPD (pooled IRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.33). In Wales, lockdown was associated with 39% reduction in primary care consultations for acute exacerbation of COPD (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.71) and 46% reduction in COPD-related emergency department attendances (IRR 0.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.81). Conclusions The UK-wide lockdown was associated with the most substantial reductions in COPD exacerbations ever seen across Scotland and Wales, with no corresponding increase in COPD deaths. This may have resulted from reduced transmission of respiratory infections, reduced exposure to outdoor air pollution and/or improved COPD self-management.

scholarly journals Patterns of Suicide in the Context of COVID-19: Evidence From Three Australian States

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Clapperton ◽  
Matthew John Spittal ◽  
Jeremy Dwyer ◽  
Andrew Garrett ◽  
Kairi Kõlves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Young Males ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Relationship Breakdown ◽  
Over Dispersion ◽  
The Impact

Aims: We aimed to determine whether there has been a change in the number of suicides occurring in three Australian states overall, and in age and sex subgroups, since the COVID-19 pandemic began, and to see if certain risk factors for suicide have become more prominent as likely underlying contributing factors for suicide.Method: Using real-time data from three state-based suicide registers, we ran multiple unadjusted and adjusted interrupted time series analyses to see if trends in monthly suicide counts changed after the pandemic began and whether there had been an increase in suicides where relationship breakdown, financial stressors, unemployment and homelessness were recorded.Results: Compared with the period before COVID-19, during the COVID-19 period there was no change in the number of suicides overall, or in any stratum-specific estimates except one. The exception was an increase in the number of young males who died by suicide in the COVID-19 period (adjusted RR 1.89 [95% CI 1.11–3.23]).The unadjusted analysis showed significant differences in suicide in the context of unemployment and relationship breakdown during the COVID-19 compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. Analysis showed an increase in the number of suicides occurring in the context of unemployment in the COVID-19 period (unadjusted RR 1.53 [95% CI 1.18–1.96]). In contrast, there was a decrease in the number of suicides occurring in the context of relationship breakdown in the COVID-19 period (unadjusted RR 0.82 [95% CI 0.67–0.99]). However, no significant changes were identified when the models were adjusted for possible over-dispersion, seasonality and non-linear trend.Conclusion: Although our analysis found no evidence of an overall increase in suicides after the pandemic began, the picture is complex. The identified increase in suicide in young men indicates that the impact of the pandemic is likely unevenly distributed across populations. The increase in suicides in the context of unemployment reinforces the vital need for mitigation measures during COVID-19, and for ongoing monitoring of suicide as the pandemic continues.

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