scholarly journals Using Bayesian spatial models to map and to identify geographical hotspots of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Portugal between 2000 and 2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Oliveira ◽  
Ana Isabel Ribeiro ◽  
Elias Teixeira Krainski ◽  
Teresa Rito ◽  
Raquel Duarte ◽  
...  

Abstract Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a major threat to the eradication of tuberculosis. TB control strategies need to be adapted to the necessities of different countries and adjusted in high-risk areas. In this study, we analysed the spatial distribution of the MDR- and non-MDR-TB cases across municipalities in Continental Portugal between 2000 and 2016. We used Bayesian spatial models to estimate age-standardized notification rates and standardized notification ratios in each area, and to delimitate high- and low-risk areas, those whose standardized notification ratio is significantly above or below the country’s average, respectively. The spatial distribution of MDR- and non-MDR-TB was not homogeneous across the country. Age-standardized notification rates of MDR-TB ranged from 0.08 to 1.20 and of non-MDR-TB ranged from 7.73 to 83.03 notifications per 100,000 population across the municipalities. We identified 36 high-risk areas for non-MDR-TB and 8 high-risk areas for MDR-TB, which were simultaneously high-risk areas for non-MDR-TB. We found a moderate correlation (ρ = 0.653; 95% CI 0.457–0.728) between MDR- and non-MDR-TB standardized notification ratios. We found heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of MDR-TB across municipalities and we identified priority areas for intervention against TB. We recommend including geographical criteria in the application of molecular drug resistance to provide early MDR-TB diagnosis, in high-risk areas.

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 425-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amita Gupta ◽  
Susan Swindells ◽  
Soyeon Kim ◽  
Michael D Hughes ◽  
Linda Naini ◽  
...  

Abstract Background We assessed multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases and their household contacts (HHCs) to inform the development of an interventional clinical trial. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of adult MDR-TB cases and their HHCs in 8 countries with high TB burdens. HHCs underwent symptom screenings, chest radiographies, sputum TB bacteriologies, TB infection (TBI) testing (tuberculin skin test [TST] and interferon gamma release assay [IGRA]), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing. Results From October 2015 to April 2016, 1016 HHCs from 284 MDR-TB cases were enrolled. At diagnosis, 69% of MDR-TB cases were positive for acid-fast bacilli sputum smears and 43% had cavitary disease; at study entry, 35% remained smear positive after a median MDR-TB treatment duration of 8.8 weeks. There were 9 HHCs that were diagnosed with TB prior to entry and excluded. Of the remaining 1007 HHCs, 41% were male and the median age was 25 years. There were 121 (12%) HHCs that had new cases of TB identified: 17 (2%) were confirmed, 33 (3%) probable, and 71 (7%) possible TB cases. The TBI prevalence (defined as either TST or IGRA positivity) was 72% and varied by age, test used, and country. Of 1007 HHCs, 775 (77%) were considered high-risk per these mutually exclusive groups: 102 (10%) were aged <5 years; 63 (6%) were aged ≥5 and were infected with HIV; and 610 (61%) were aged ≥5 years, were negative for HIV or had an unknown HIV status, and were TBI positive. Only 21 (2%) HHCs were on preventive therapy. Conclusions The majority of HHCs in these high-burden countries were at high risk of TB disease and infection, yet few were receiving routine preventive therapy. Trials of novel, preventive therapies are urgently needed to inform treatment policy and practice.


BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chathika K Weerasuriya ◽  
Rebecca C Harris ◽  
C Finn McQuaid ◽  
Fiammetta Bozzani ◽  
Yunzhou Ruan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India. Methods We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027–2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses. Results By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69–72) and 72% (UI: 70–74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30–32) and 44% (UI: 42–47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8–1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9–1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively. Conclusions Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (S1) ◽  
pp. 43-43
Author(s):  
Lijun Shen ◽  
Shangshang Gu ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Zhao Liu ◽  
Yuehua Liu

IntroductionChina bears a considerably high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Second-line anti-TB drugs are urgently needed yet domestic MDR-TB drugs are expensive and lack policy support. Patients’ living conditions are closely related to the drug affordability. The national TB prevention programs should play a critical role. The purpose of this study is to measure the cost of treating MDR-TB patients under different treatment schemes and price sources. The results of this study are expected to inform the relevant drug protection policies and provide inputs for further cost-effectiveness analyses.MethodsBased on the treatment plan of China's Multidrug-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis Clinical Path (2012 edition) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Guide (2018 edition), the treatment costs of MDR-TB were measured under different scenarios. Catastrophic health expenditure was then calculated if the treatment cost exceeds 40 percent of the household's non-subsistence income. National, rural and disposable income per capita in 2018, were used to represent Chinese patients’ affordability.ResultsUnder varied treatment schemes and market price sources in China, the total costs for MDR-TB patients range from 19,401 to 126,703 CNY [2,853 to 18,633 USD] per person. Under current prices, all treatment schemes recommended by the WHO will incur catastrophic costs for Chinese MDR-TB patients. Significant differences were found between rural and urban areas as 52.8 percent of the treatment listed in the 2012 China Guideline would lead to catastrophic cost for rural patients but not urban ones.ConclusionsOur study concludes that the domestic drugs are more expensive than the international purchase price and the treatment of MDR-TB imposes substantial economic burden on patients, especially in the rural areas. The results of the study also indicate that it is urgent for the state to emphasize government responsibility and initiate centralized procurement for price negotiations to reduce the market price of MDR-TB drugs. The urban-rural gap should also be addressed in the design of future policies to ensure the drug affordability for all patients in need.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Nang Thu Thu Kyaw ◽  
Aung Sithu ◽  
Srinath Satyanarayana ◽  
Ajay M. V. Kumar ◽  
Saw Thein ◽  
...  

Screening of household contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a crucial active TB case-finding intervention. Before 2016, this intervention had not been implemented in Myanmar, a country with a high MDR-TB burden. In 2016, a community-based screening of household contacts of MDR-TB patients using a systematic TB-screening algorithm (symptom screening and chest radiography followed by sputum smear microscopy and Xpert-MTB/RIF assays) was implemented in 33 townships in Myanmar. We assessed the implementation of this intervention, how well the screening algorithm was followed, and the yield of active TB. Data collected between April 2016 and March 2017 were analyzed using logistic and log-binomial regression. Of 620 household contacts of 210 MDR-TB patients enrolled for screening, 620 (100%) underwent TB symptom screening and 505 (81%) underwent chest radiography. Of 240 (39%) symptomatic household contacts, 71 (30%) were not further screened according to the algorithm. Children aged <15 years were less likely to follow the algorithm. Twenty-four contacts were diagnosed with active TB, including two rifampicin- resistant cases (yield of active TB = 3.9%, 95% CI: 2.3%–6.5%). The highest yield was found among children aged <5 years (10.0%, 95% CI: 3.6%–24.7%). Household contact screening should be strengthened, continued, and scaled up for all MDR-TB patients in Myanmar.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. e0236250
Author(s):  
Chador Tenzin ◽  
Natkamol Chansatitporn ◽  
Tashi Dendup ◽  
Tandin Dorji ◽  
Karma Lhazeen ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Benhur Joel Shadrach ◽  
Santosh Kumar ◽  
Kunal Deokar ◽  
Gajendra Vikram Singh ◽  
Hariharan ◽  
...  

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