scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals Determining the Number of Passengers for Each of Three Reverse Pyramid Boarding Groups with COVID-19 Flying Restrictions

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2038
Author(s):  
Camelia Delcea ◽  
R. John Milne ◽  
Liviu-Adrian Cotfas
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Relative Preference ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Airport Terminal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The onset of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has changed many aspects of people’s economic and social activities. For many airlines, social distancing has reduced airplane capacity by one third as a result of keeping the middle seats empty. Additionally, social distancing between passengers traversing the aisle slows the boarding process. Recent literature has suggested that the reverse pyramid boarding method provides favorable values for boarding time and passenger health metrics when compared to other boarding methods with social distancing. Assuming reverse pyramid boarding with the middle seats unoccupied, we determined the number of passengers to include in each of three boarding groups. We assumed that passengers use a jet-bridge that connects the airport terminal to the airplane’s front door. We used agent-based modeling and a stochastic simulation to evaluate solutions. A full grid search found an initial good solution, and then local search optimization determined the best solution based upon the airline’s relative preference for minimizing average boarding time and minimizing risks to previously seated passengers from later-boarding, potentially contagious passengers breathing near them. The resulting solution contained the number of passengers to place into each of the three boarding groups. If an airline is most concerned about the health risk to seated passengers from later boarding passengers walking near them, the best three-group reverse pyramid method adapted for social distancing will first board passengers with window seats in the rear half of the airplane, then will board passengers with window seats in the front half of the airplane and those with aisle seats in the rear half of the airplane, and finally will board the passengers with aisle seats in the front half of the airplane. The resulting solution takes about 2% longer to board than the three-group solution that minimizes boarding time while providing a 25% decrease in health risk to aisle seat passengers from later boarding passengers.

scholarly journals Age profile of susceptibility, mixing, and social distancing shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Yuxia Liang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hunan Province ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Age Profile ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractStrict interventions were successful to control the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China. As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection and disease, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact surveys data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact tracing information from Hunan Province. Daily contacts were reduced 7-9 fold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. Children 0-14 years were 59% (95% CI 7-82%) less susceptible than individuals 65 years and over. A transmission model calibrated against these data indicates that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. While proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they reduce peak incidence by half and delay the epidemic. These findings can help guide global intervention policies.

scholarly journals Digital Tracing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: User Appraisal, Emotion, and Continuance Intention

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Ayoung Suh ◽  
Mengjun Li
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Personal Privacy ◽  
Continuance Intention ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreak ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Technological Affordances ◽  
Method Approach

This study explores how people appraise the use of contact tracing apps during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in South Korea. Despite increasing attention paid to digital tracing for health disasters, few studies have empirically examined user appraisal, emotion, and their continuance intention to use contact tracing apps for disaster management during an infectious disease outbreak. A mixed-method approach combining qualitative and quantitative inquiries was employed. In the qualitative study, by conducting interviews with 25 people who have used mobile apps for contact tracing, the way users appraise contact tracing apps for COVID-19 was explored. In the quantitative study, using data collected from 506 users of the apps, the interplay among cognitive appraisal (threats and opportunities) and its association with user emotion, and continuance intention was examined. The findings indicate that once users experience loss emotions, such as anger, frustration, and disgust, they are not willing to continue using the apps. App designers should consider providing technological affordances that enable users to have a sense of control over the technology so that they do not experience loss emotions. Public policymakers should also consider developing measures that can balance public health and personal privacy.

scholarly journals A Failure of Political Communication Not a Failure of Bureaucracy: The Danger of Presidential Misinformation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 614-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Hatcher
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Medical Procedures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Incorrect Information

President Trump’s communications during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic violate principles of public health, such as practicing transparency and deferring to medical experts. Moreover, the president’s communications are dangerous and misleading, and his lack of leadership during the crisis limits the nation’s response to the problem, increases political polarization around public health issues of social distancing, and spreads incorrect information about health-related policies and medical procedures. To correct the dangerous path that the nation is on, the administration needs to adopt a more expert-centered approach to the crisis, and President Trump needs to practice compassion, empathy, and transparency in his communications.

scholarly journals Prevalence and correlates of forgone care among adult Israeli Jews: A survey conducted during the COVID-19 outbreak

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0260399
Author(s):  
Perla Werner ◽  
Aviad Tur-Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Seeking Help ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Efforts to control the spread of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic include drastic measures such as isolation, social distancing, and lockdown. These restrictions are accompanied by serious adverse consequences such as forgoing of healthcare. The study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of forgone care for a variety of healthcare services during a two-month COVID-19 lockdown, using Andersen’s Behavioral Model of Healthcare Utilization. A cross-sectional study using computerized phone interviews was conducted with 302 Israeli Jewish participants aged 40 and above. Almost half of the participants (49%) reported a delay in seeking help for at least one needed healthcare service during the COVID-19 lockdown period. Among the predisposing factors, we found that participants aged 60+, being more religious, and reporting higher levels of COVID-19 fear were more likely to report forgone care than younger, less religious and less concerned participants. Among need factors, a statistically significant association was found with a reported diagnosis of diabetes, with participants with the disease having a considerably higher likelihood of forgone care. The findings stress the importance of developing interventions aimed at mitigating the phenomenon of forgoing care while creating nonconventional ways of consuming healthcare services. In the short term, healthcare services need to adapt to the social distancing and isolation measures required to stanch the epidemic. In the long term, policymakers should consider alternative ways of delivering healthcare services to the public regularly and during crisis without losing sight of their budgetary consequences. They must recognize the possibility of having to align medical staff to the changing demand for healthcare services under conditions of health uncertainty.

Contact Tracing Applications Against COVID-19: A Systematic Review (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Nabeel ◽  
Salman AlSabah ◽  
Eliana Al Haddad ◽  
Hutan Ashrafian
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Scientific Databases ◽  
Manual Methods ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Transmission Of Disease

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered public anxiety around the world. So far, the evidence suggests that prevention on a public scale is the most effective health measure for thwarting the progress of COVID-19. Another critical aspect of preventing COVID-19 is contact tracing. OBJECTIVE We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of contact tracing applications currently available in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS We undertook a systematic review and narrative synthesis of all literature relating to contact tracing applications in the context of COVID-19. We searched 3 major scientific databases. Only articles that were published in English and were available as full-text articles were selected for review. Data were extracted and narrative syntheses conducted. RESULTS Five studies relating to COVID-19 were included in the review. Our results suggest that digitalized contact tracing methods can be beneficial for impeding the progress of COVID-19. Three key themes were generated from this systematic review. First, the critical mass of application adoption must be attained at the population level before the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the solution can be increased. Second, usability factors such as access, ease of use and the elimination of barriers are essential in driving this uptake. Third, privacy must be ensured where possible as it is the single most significant barrier against achieving critical mass. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed more than 2 million lives globally, with over 100 million confirmed cases. Contact tracing can rapidly identify potentially infected individuals before the emergence of severe or critical symptoms, and it can also prevent the subsequent transmission of disease from secondary cases when implemented efficiently. Contact tracing methods have proved to be beneficial for impeding the progress of COVID-19 as compared to older, more labor intensive manual methods.

Face masks are an essential tool to mitigate the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: a call to action

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-159
Author(s):  
P. Dehgani-Mobaraki ◽  
A. Kamber Zaidi ◽  
J.M. Levy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Upper Airway ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Call To Action ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Health And Disease ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Over the past several months, an increasing volume of infor- mation has expanded awareness regarding the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus associated with COVID-19. Following the pandemic declaration by the World Health Orga- nization (WHO), global authorities immediately took measures to reduce the transmission and subsequent morbidity associa- ted with this highly contagious disease. However, despite initial success in “flattening the curve” of viral transmission, many areas of the world are currently experiencing an increase in com- munity transmission, threatening to replicate the early public health emergencies experienced by Italy (1,2). In addition, the possibility of contact tracing through geosocial applications and public service platforms have been met with variable interest (3). Given current spread and the upcoming influenza season, it is essential that we use our voices as experts in upper airway health and disease to educate and encourage all communities to adopt appropriate protective measures, including the routine use of facemasks.

scholarly journals Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6498) ◽  
pp. 1481-1486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Yuxia Liang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts were reduced seven- to eightfold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults 15 to 64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.49), whereas individuals more than 65 years of age are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.92). Based on these data, we built a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. Although proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic.

scholarly journals Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ghassane Benrhmach ◽  
Khalil Namir ◽  
Jamal Bouyaghroumni
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization declared that the total number of confirmed cases tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, affecting 210 countries, exceeded 3 million on 29 April 2020, with more than 207,973 deaths. In order to end the global COVID‐19 pandemic, public authorities have put in place multiple strategies like testing, contact tracing, and social distancing. Predictive mathematical models for epidemics are fundamental to understand the development of the epidemic and to plan effective control strategies. Some hosts may carry SARS‐CoV‐2 and transmit it to others, yet display no symptoms themselves. We propose applying a model (SELIAHRD) taking in consideration the number of asymptomatic infected people. The SELIAHRD model consists of eight stages: Susceptible, Exposed, Latent, Symptomatic Infected, Asymptomatic Infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Dead. The asymptomatic carriers contribute to the spread of disease, but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission. The simulation of possible scenarios of the implementation of social distancing shows that if we rigorously follow the social distancing rule then the healthcare system will not be overloaded.

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