Modeling social distancing and “spontaneous” infection in an epidemic outbreak phase—Application to the 2020 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 567 ◽  
pp. 125727
Author(s):  
Gad Frenkel ◽  
Moshe Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Spontaneous Infection

scholarly journals How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atiqur Chowdhury ◽  
K M Ariful Kabir ◽  
Jun Tanimoto
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Polynomial Fit ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Spread Of Infection

Abstract Background: Novel coronavirus was named as SARS-CoV-2 is a transmissible viral disease that has rapidly stroke around the world and is currently a major thread for developing and under poverty level countries by the World Bank and WHO's prediction. Without inventing vaccination or the proper treatment, how we control a faster infectious disease like SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 is one of the most admitted questions with which our developed civilization faces right now.At the same time, some policies termed as \isolation", \quarantine",\lock-down" and \social distancing" would give a stunning direction to control the epidemic outbreak.Methods: In this paper, we developed a novel theoretical model named \Social Distancing SEIQR model" to control the spread of infection by combining both quarantine and social distancing explicitly based on the real cases that observed where medical equipment and others resources are limited.Results: Our modelling basic reproduction number R0 is almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh.A linear regression polynomial fit result showed that our model fitted well to the reported COVID-19 cases data for Bangladesh.Conclusion: Our model will help to nd some strong strategies for controlling faster from spreading the virus and protect the nation when a country has limited medical resources.

scholarly journals An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maritza Cabrera ◽  
Fernando Córdova-Lepe ◽  
Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara ◽  
Katia Vogt-Geisse
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Oscillatory Behavior ◽  
Point Prevalence ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Small Peak ◽  
Functional Forms

AbstractModeling human behavior within mathematical models of infectious diseases is a key component to understand and control disease spread. We present a mathematical compartmental model of Susceptible–Infectious–Removed to compare the infected curves given by four different functional forms describing the transmission rate. These depend on the distance that individuals keep on average to others in their daily lives. We assume that this distance varies according to the balance between two opposite thrives: the self-protecting reaction of individuals upon the presence of disease to increase social distancing and their necessity to return to a culturally dependent natural social distance that occurs in the absence of disease. We present simulations to compare results for different society types on point prevalence, the peak size of a first epidemic outbreak and the time of occurrence of that peak, for four different transmission rate functional forms and parameters of interest related to distancing behavior, such as: the reaction velocity of a society to change social distance during an epidemic. We observe the vulnerability to disease spread of close contact societies, and also show that certain social distancing behavior may provoke a small peak of a first epidemic outbreak, but at the expense of it occurring early after the epidemic onset, observing differences in this regard between society types. We also discuss the appearance of temporal oscillations of the four different transmission rates, their differences, and how this oscillatory behavior is impacted through social distancing; breaking the unimodality of the actives-curve produced by the classical SIR-model.

scholarly journals Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov ◽  
Shengfeng Deng ◽  
Shannon R. Serrao ◽  
Priyanka ◽  
Riya Nandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Network Architectures ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractOnce an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).

Kegiatan Berkreasi dengan Seni dan Kimia selama COVID-19 di Desa Panggung Rejo, Jebres, Solo, Jawa Tengah

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chintia Titania ◽  
Djoko Suhardjanto ◽  
Yeni Priatnasari
Keyword(s):  
Social Distancing ◽  
Work From Home

Kuliah Kerja Nyata merupakan proses pembelajaran mahasiswa melalui berbagai kegiatan langsung ditengah-tengah masyarakat, dan mahasiswa berupaya untuk menjadi bagian dari masyarakat serta secara aktif dan kreatif terlibat dalam dinamika yang terjadi di masyarakat. Kuliah Kerja Nyata (KKN) UNS Era Covid-19 yang dilakasanakan di Jalan Kabut Desa Panggung Rejo Surakarta berlangsung selama 45 hari (15 Mei-30 Juni 2020). Program KKN yang dilakukan berpusat pada kegiatan belajar mengajar. Sejak Covid-19 menyebar ke seluruh wilayah saat itulah ribuan sekolah dari berbagai jenjang menerapkan proses belajar dari rumah secara daring (online). Nyatanya aktivitas belajar di rumah belum terlakasana dengan efektif. Beberapa program KKN yang telah dilaksanakan. Kegiatan KKN yang dilakukan dimulai dengan mendata siswa yang ada di sekitar Jalan Kabut, konsultasi program kepada pihak RT dan DPL, dan pelaksanaan program yang direncanakan. Adapun program kerja yang dilakukan meliputi kegiatan melakukan praktikum kimia secara sederhana, dan menggunakan metode daring (online) melalui WhatsApp Grup dengan ibu-ibu. Penggunaan metode ini juga merupakan bentuk support terhadap gerakan Work from Home & Social distancing yang mana kegiatan dapat dilakukan di rumah masing-masing. Hasil dari kegiatan ini diharapkan siswa dapat melakukan belajar efektif walaupun di rumah saja serta pemahaman terkait Covid-19 dan juga warga desa Panggung Rejo dapat memahami seluk beluk Covid-19 dengan baik serta dapat menerapkan perilaku hidup bersih dan sehat.Kata Kunci : KKN COVID-19, Covid-19, Work from Home

“I stay at work for you, you stay at home for us.” Does this Covid-19 campaign work for the youth in Asia?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-175
Author(s):  
Jappy Fanggidae ◽  
Ridolof Batilmurik ◽  
Pieter Samadara
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Method ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Asian Context ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
At Home

This study investigated the relationship between guilt appeal and compliance with social distancing measures. We proposed that the relationship is double mediated by empathy and responsibility for the unfortunate people who have suffered from COVID-19. This research is novel to an extent as an experimental method is used in the Asian context. The results exhibited that guilt positively affected compliance with social distancing measures. The respondents were directly or indirectly compliant due to the emotions of empathy and responsibility. The theoretical and practical contributions of this study were presented.

Comprehending and Executing Aacharrasayana in the context of COVID 19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1099-1104
Author(s):  
Priti Desai ◽  
Anita Wanjari ◽  
Deepali Giri
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
Spiritual Health ◽  
Social Health ◽  
Human Being ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Global Population

The COVID 19 pandemic had disrupted the lives of all socio-economic groups of the global population. The lockdowns, social distancing, financial adversities, continuous fear of being a victim to the virus had left every individual desperate with a feeling of vulnerability. Irrespective of all possible efforts at the global level, no ultimate solution to get rid of this virus is available till date except for the preventive measures. Various medicines and formulations are into practice, which may boost one’s immunity to fight against the virus. This catastrophic scenario had resulted in an impact on the human being in all aspects, physical, mental, emotional, social and behavioural. Ayurveda, the science of life has encompassed all these aspects through its preventive and curative principles. Aacharrasayana, code of conduct or behavioural discipline is one such modality that entails perfect mental, physical, social and spiritual health of the human being. The execution of Aacharrasayana in this situation can immensely contribute in restoring mental, spiritual and social health. This review aims to interpret the implementation of various aspects of Aacharrasayanain context of COVID 19 and its utility in combatting the dreadful crisis.

IMPACT OF NATIONAL DISASTER COVID-19, INDONESIA TOWARDS ECONOMIC RECESSION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
endang naryono
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
National Disaster

Covid-19 or the corona virus is a virus that has become a disaster and a global humanitarian disaster began in December 2019 in Wuhan province in China, April 2020 the spread of the corona virus has spread throughout the world making the greatest humanitarian disaster in the history of human civilization after the war world II, Already tens of thousands of people have died, millions of people have been infected with the conona virus from poor countries, developing countries to developed countries overwhelmed by this virus outbreak. Increasingly, the spread follows a series of measurements while patients who recover recover from a series of counts so that this epidemic becomes a very frightening disaster plus there is no drug or vaccine for this corona virus yet found, so that all countries implement strategies to reduce this spread from social distancing, phycal distancing to with a city or country lockdown.

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