scholarly journals Risk evaluation at municipality level of a COVID-19 outbreak incorporating relevant geographic data: the study case of Galicia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Carballosa ◽  
José Balsa-Barreiro ◽  
Adrián Garea ◽  
David García-Selfa ◽  
Ángel Miramontes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Spatial Differences ◽  
Infective Disease ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Globalized World ◽  
North Western ◽  
Pandemic Wave ◽  
Future Outbreak

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic was an inevitable outcome of a globalized world in which a highly infective disease is able to reach every country in a matter of weeks. While lockdowns and strong mobility restrictions have proven to be efficient to contain the exponential transmission of the virus, its pervasiveness has made it impossible for economies to maintain this kind of measures in time. Understanding precisely how the spread of the virus occurs from a territorial perspective is crucial not only to prevent further infections but also to help with policy design regarding human mobility. From the large spatial differences in the behavior of the virus spread we can unveil which areas have been more vulnerable to it and why, and with this information try to assess the risk that each community has to suffer a future outbreak of infection. In this work we have analyzed the geographical distribution of the cumulative incidence during the first wave of the pandemic in the region of Galicia (north western part of Spain), and developed a mathematical approach that assigns a risk factor for each of the different municipalities that compose the region. This risk factor is independent of the actual evolution of the pandemic and incorporates geographic and demographic information. The comparison with empirical information from the first pandemic wave demonstrates the validity of the method. Our results can potentially be used to design appropriate preventive policies that help to contain the virus.

Fasciola hepatica in sheep from north-western Spain. Risk factor analysis using a capture ELISA (MM3 SERO)

2016 ◽  
Vol 145 ◽  
pp. 103-106
Author(s):  
A. Pérez-Creo ◽  
J.P. Béjar ◽  
P. Díaz ◽  
C.M. López ◽  
A. Prieto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Fasciola Hepatica ◽  
Risk Factor Analysis ◽  
Capture Elisa ◽  
Western Spain ◽  
North Western

Fasciola hepatica in goats from north-western Spain: Risk factor analysis using a capture ELISA

2016 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 104-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Pérez-Creo ◽  
Pablo Díaz ◽  
Ceferino López ◽  
Juan Pablo Béjar ◽  
Victoria Martínez-Sernández ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Fasciola Hepatica ◽  
Risk Factor Analysis ◽  
Capture Elisa ◽  
Western Spain ◽  
North Western

scholarly journals Reconstruction holocene environmental changes in North-Western Pacific in relation to paleorecord from Shikotan Island

2019 ◽  
Vol 486 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-216
Author(s):  
L. B. Nazarova ◽  
N. G. Razjigaeva ◽  
B. Diekmann ◽  
Т. А. Grebennikova ◽  
L. А. Ganzey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Late Holocene ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatial Differences ◽  
Shikotan Island ◽  
North Pacific Region ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Western ◽  
Humid Period

Results of a paleolimnological investigated of a well-dated lake sediment section from Shikotan Island (Southern Kurils) showed that from ca 8.0 to 5.8 cal ka BP warm and humid period corresponding to middle Holocene optimum took place. Cooling thereafter corresponds to Neoglacial. A reconstructed from ca 0.9 to ca 0.58 cal ka BP warm period can be correlated to a Medieval Warm Period. Cooling after 0.58 cal ka BP can be correlated with the LIA. Marine regression stages were identified at ca 6.2-5.9, 5.5-5.1 and 1.07-0.36 cal ka BP. The general chronology of major climatic events of Holocene in the island is in accordance with the climate records from the North Pacific region. Revealed spatial differences in timing and magnitude of the Late Holocene climatic episodes (LIA, MWP) within region needs further investigations.

scholarly journals Impact of US vaccination strategy on COVID-19 wave dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Anna Sigridur Islind ◽  
María Óskarsdóttir ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Renormalization Group ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Flight Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Wave Dynamics ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractWe employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alongside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.

scholarly journals Healthcare institutions’ recommendation regarding the use of FFP-2 masks and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among healthcare workers: a multicenter longitudinal cohort study

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Szajek ◽  
Felix Fleisch ◽  
Sandra Hutter ◽  
Martin Risch ◽  
Theresa Bechmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Occupational Exposure ◽  
Seroconversion Rate ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Occupational Risk Factors ◽  
Pandemic Wave

Abstract Background Health care workers (HCW) are heavily exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from the beginning of the pandemic. We aimed to analyze risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion among HCW with a special emphasis on the respective healthcare institutions’ recommendation regarding the use of FFP-2 masks. Methods We recruited HCW from 13 health care institutions (HCI) with different mask policies (type IIR surgical face masks vs. FFP-2 masks) in Southeastern Switzerland (canton of Grisons). Sera of participants were analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies 6 months apart, after the first and during the second pandemic wave using an electro-chemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA, Roche Diagnostics). We captured risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection by using an online questionnaire at both time points. The effects of individual COVID-19 exposure, regional incidence and FFP-2 mask policy on the probability of seroconversion were evaluated with univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Results SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected in 99 of 2794 (3.5%) HCW at baseline and in 376 of 2315 (16.2%) participants 6 months later. In multivariable analyses the strongest association for seroconversion was exposure to a household member with known COVID-19 (aOR: 19.82, 95% CI 8.11–48.43, p < 0.001 at baseline and aOR: 8.68, 95% CI 6.13–12.29, p < 0.001 at follow-up). Significant occupational risk factors at baseline included exposure to COVID-19 patients (aOR: 2.79, 95% CI 1.28–6.09, p = 0.010) and to SARS-CoV-2 infected co-workers (aOR: 2.50, 95% CI 1.52–4.12, p < 0.001). At follow up 6 months later, non-occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals (aOR: 2.54, 95% CI 1.66–3.89 p < 0.001) and the local COVID-19 incidence of the corresponding HCI (aOR: 1.98, 95% CI 1.30–3.02, p = 0.001) were associated with seroconversion. The healthcare institutions’ mask policy (surgical masks during usual exposure vs. general use of FFP-2 masks) did not affect seroconversion rates of HCW during the first and the second pandemic wave. Conclusion Contact with SARS-CoV-2 infected household members was the most important risk factor for seroconversion among HCW. The strongest occupational risk factor was exposure to COVID-19 patients. During this pandemic, with heavy non-occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the mask policy of HCIs did not affect the seroconversion rate of HCWs.

scholarly journals The Impact of Mass Exodus on the Resurgence of COVID19 Cases: Study Case of Regions in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuning Nuraini ◽  
Kamal Khairudin Sukandar ◽  
Wirdatul Aini
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Direct Transfer ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Mobility Rate ◽  
Simulated Model ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Big Cities ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe inclusion of the human mobility aspect is essential for understanding the behavior of COVID-19 spread, especially when millions of people travel across borders near Eid Al-Fitr. This study aims at grasping the effect of mass exodus among regions on the active cases of COVID-19 in a mathematical perspective. We construct a multi-region SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Death) model that accommodates the direct transfer of people from one region to others. The mobility rate is estimated using the proposed Dawson-like function, which requires the Origin-Destination Matrix data. Assuming only susceptible, unapparent infected, and recovered individuals travel near Eid Al-Fitr, the rendered model is well-depicting the actual data at that time, giving either a significant spike or decline in the number of active cases due to the mass exodus. Most agglomerated regions like Jakarta and Depok City experienced the fall of active cases number, both in actual data and the simulated model. However, most rural areas experienced the opposite, like Bandung District and Cimahi City. This study should confirm that most travelers originated from big cities to the rural regions and scientifically justifies that massive mobility affects the COVID-19 transmission among areas.

scholarly journals Healthcare Institutions’ Recommendation Regarding the Use of FFP-2 Masks and SARS-Cov-2 Seropositivity Among Healthcare Workers – A Multicenter Longitudinal Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Szajek ◽  
Felix Fleisch ◽  
Sandra Hutter ◽  
Martin Risch ◽  
Theresa Bechmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Occupational Exposure ◽  
Seroconversion Rate ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Occupational Risk Factors ◽  
Pandemic Wave

Abstract BackgroundHealth care workers (HCW) are heavily exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from the beginning of the pandemic. We aimed to analyze risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion among HCW with a special emphasis on the respective healthcare institutions’ recommendation regarding the use of FFP-2 masks. MethodsWe recruited HCW from 13 health care institutions (HCI) with different mask policies (type IIR surgical face masks vs. FFP-2 masks) in Southeastern Switzerland (canton of Grisons). Sera of participants were analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies six months apart, after the first and during the second pandemic wave using an electro-chemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA, Roche Diagnostics). We captured risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection by using an online questionnaire at both time points. The effects of individual COVID-19 exposure, regional incidence and FFP-2 mask policy on the probability of seroconversion were evaluated with univariable and multivariable logistic regression.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected in 99 of 2794 (3.5%) HCW at baseline and in 376 of 2315 (16.2%) participants six months later. In multivariable analyses the strongest association for seroconversion was exposure to a household member with known COVID-19 (aOR: 19.82, 95% CI: 8.11-48.43, p<0.001 at baseline and aOR: 8.68, 95% CI: 6.13-12.29, p<0.001 at follow-up). Significant occupational risk factors at baseline included exposure to COVID-19 patients (aOR: 2.79, 95% CI: 1.28-6.09, p=0.010) and to SARS-CoV-2 infected co-workers (aOR: 2.50, 95% CI: 1.52-4.12, p<0.001). At follow up six months later, non-occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals (aOR: 2.54, 95% CI: 1.66-3.89 p<0.001) and the local COVID-19 incidence of the corresponding HCI (aOR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.30-3.02, p=0.001) were associated with seroconversion. The healthcare institutions’ mask policy (surgical masks vs. FFP-2 masks) did not affect seroconversion rates of HCW during the first and the second pandemic wave. ConclusionContact with SARS-CoV-2 infected household members was the most important risk factor for seroconversion among HCW. The strongest occupational risk factor was exposure to COVID-19 patients. During this pandemic, with heavy non-occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the mask policy of HCIs did not affect the seroconversion rate of HCWs.

scholarly journals Commuting Mobility as Risk Factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Sleman Regency, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Tri Wulandari Kesetyaningsih ◽  
Siti Fajrini Amir ◽  
Yeni Rahma Desty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
High Mobility ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Case Group ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Chi Square Analysis

Background:In Indonesia, there has been a change in the age group of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) patient population from children to adults since 1998. It raises the suspicion that an infection occurs not only in residential area but also from other places as a result of human mobility. Research on the role of people mobility as a risk factor for dengue incidence yielded different results. This study aims to reveal the relationship between human mobility and the incidence of dengue. Method: This is a case-control study that involved 276 respondents; 138 were sufferers (case group) while the other 138 respondents were non-sufferers (control group). The sample size was determined by using purposive sampling. Patient’s data and their addresses were obtained from Sleman Regency Health Office while the control group was patient’s neighbors. The people mobility data were obtained by conducting questionnaires that were divided into three categories, namely low, moderate, and high for commuting mobility and two categories, namely traveling outside and inside province for circular mobility. Chi-square analysis was used to determine whether mobility was a risk factor for DHF. Results:The result showed that commuting mobility was correlated with the DHF incidence (p=0.001) where the high mobility of 3.169 times raised the risk of DHF incidence (OR 3.169; 95% CI: 1.690-5.944) more than the low mobility. However, the DHF incidence was not correlated with moderate mobility (p=0,821). Furthermore, traveling outside the Yogyakarta Province reduced the risk by 6.175 times than non-traveling activity (p=0.000; OR 6.175; 95% CI: 2.759-13.822). Conclusion: The commuting mobility outside the village is a risk factor of DHF. Meanwhile, traveling outside Yogyakarta Province did not cause any risk for DHF and it instead tended to reduce the risk.

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