scholarly journals Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. Fokas ◽  
J. Cuevas-Maraver ◽  
P. G. Kevrekidis
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Algorithm ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Older Population ◽  
Mathematical Result ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractGuided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.

scholarly journals Modelling spreading of an infection using time series by a novel family of models; fitting the time series of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Jamshidi ◽  
Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran ◽  
Mansour Rezaei
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Family ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractIntroductionTime series models are one of the frequently used methods to describe the pattern of spreading an epidemic.MethodsWe presented a new family of time series models able to represent the cumulative number of individuals that contracted an infectious disease from the start to the end of the first wave of spreading. This family is flexible enough to model the propagation of almost all infectious diseases. After a general discussion on competent time series to model the outbreak of a communicable disease, we introduced the new family through one of its examples.ResultsWe estimated the parameters of two samples of the novel family to model the spreading of COVID-19 in China.DiscussionOur model does not work well when the decreasing trend of the rate of growth is absent because it is the main presumption of the model. In addition, since the information on the initial days is of the utmost importance for this model, one of the challenges about this model is modifying it to get qualified to model datasets that lack the information on the first days.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Predictive Mathematical Models for the Number of Deaths in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, and USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios S. Fokas ◽  
Nikolaos Dikaios ◽  
George A. Kastis
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Maximum Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractWe have recently introduced two novel mathematical models for characterizing the dynamics of the cumulative number of individuals in a given country reported to be infected with COVID-19. Here we show that these models can also be used for determining the time-evolution of the associated number of deaths. In particular, using data up to around the time that the rate of deaths reaches a maximum, these models provide estimates for the time that a plateau will be reached signifying that the epidemic is approaching its end, as well as for the cumulative number of deaths at that time. The plateau is defined to occur when the rate of deaths is 5% of the maximum rate. Results are presented for South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, and USA. The number of COVID-19 deaths in other counties can be analyzed similarly.

scholarly journals Are the SARS-COV-2 epidemics in Europe coming to an end? (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanassios S Fokas
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Explicit Formulas ◽  
Learning Network ◽  
The Third ◽  
Deep Learning Network ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Second Wave

UNSTRUCTURED Using rigorous mathematical results, evidence is presented which suggests that the easing of the lockdown measures adopted by several European counties may not cause a substantial ‘second wave’, which would then imply that the Covid-19 epidemics in these European countries may be coming to an end. This evidence is based on the review of three completely different mathematical approaches: the first relies on the derivation of explicit formulas for predicting the cumulative number of deaths caused by SARS CoV-2 during the lockdown; the second is based on the use of similar formulas as well as on the employment of a powerful deep-learning network for predicting the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS CoV-2 during the lockdown; and the third is the consequence of the analysis of an elaborated SIR-type model with the capacity to predict accurately the number of deaths following the easing of the lockdown measures.

Perceptual Learning of Vocoded Speech With and Without Contralateral Hearing: Implications for Cochlear Implant Rehabilitation

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Martin Chavant ◽  
Alexis Hervais-Adelman ◽  
Olivier Macherey
Keyword(s):  
Cochlear Implant ◽  
Perceptual Learning ◽  
Speech Signal ◽  
Training Phase ◽  
Monosyllabic Words ◽  
Low Pass ◽  
Contralateral Ear ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Vocoded Speech

Purpose An increasing number of individuals with residual or even normal contralateral hearing are being considered for cochlear implantation. It remains unknown whether the presence of contralateral hearing is beneficial or detrimental to their perceptual learning of cochlear implant (CI)–processed speech. The aim of this experiment was to provide a first insight into this question using acoustic simulations of CI processing. Method Sixty normal-hearing listeners took part in an auditory perceptual learning experiment. Each subject was randomly assigned to one of three groups of 20 referred to as NORMAL, LOWPASS, and NOTHING. The experiment consisted of two test phases separated by a training phase. In the test phases, all subjects were tested on recognition of monosyllabic words passed through a six-channel “PSHC” vocoder presented to a single ear. In the training phase, which consisted of listening to a 25-min audio book, all subjects were also presented with the same vocoded speech in one ear but the signal they received in their other ear differed across groups. The NORMAL group was presented with the unprocessed speech signal, the LOWPASS group with a low-pass filtered version of the speech signal, and the NOTHING group with no sound at all. Results The improvement in speech scores following training was significantly smaller for the NORMAL than for the LOWPASS and NOTHING groups. Conclusions This study suggests that the presentation of normal speech in the contralateral ear reduces or slows down perceptual learning of vocoded speech but that an unintelligible low-pass filtered contralateral signal does not have this effect. Potential implications for the rehabilitation of CI patients with partial or full contralateral hearing are discussed.

Optimal Experimental Design With Nesting of Persons in Organizations

2013 ◽  
Vol 221 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard J. P. van Breukelen
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Optimal Number ◽  
Health Centers ◽  
Randomized Experiments ◽  
Optimal Sample ◽  
Treatment Conditions ◽  
Sampling Cost ◽  
Nested Designs ◽  
Simple Equations ◽  
Number Of Individuals

This paper introduces optimal design of randomized experiments where individuals are nested within organizations, such as schools, health centers, or companies. The focus is on nested designs with two levels (organization, individual) and two treatment conditions (treated, control), with treatment assignment to organizations, or to individuals within organizations. For each type of assignment, a multilevel model is first presented for the analysis of a quantitative dependent variable or outcome. Simple equations are then given for the optimal sample size per level (number of organizations, number of individuals) as a function of the sampling cost and outcome variance at each level, with realistic examples. Next, it is explained how the equations can be applied if the dependent variable is dichotomous, or if there are covariates in the model, or if the effects of two treatment factors are studied in a factorial nested design, or if the dependent variable is repeatedly measured. Designs with three levels of nesting and the optimal number of repeated measures are briefly discussed, and the paper ends with a short discussion of robust design.

Evaluation of the Abnormal Platelet Function in von Willebrand Disease by the Blood Filtration Test

1996 ◽  
Vol 76 (03) ◽  
pp. 460-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco I Pareti ◽  
Marco Cattaneo ◽  
Luca Carpinelli ◽  
Maddalena L Zighetti ◽  
Caterina Bressi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Platelet Function ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Von Willebrand Disease ◽  
Type I ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Primary Hemostasis ◽  
Normal Platelet ◽  
Filter Test ◽  
Type 3 ◽  
Von Willebrand

SummaryWe have evaluated platelet function in different subtypes of von Willebrand disease (vWD) by pushing blood through the capillarysized channels of a glass filter. Patients, including those with type IIB vWD, showed lower than normal platelet retention and increased cumulative number of blood drops passing through the filter as a function of time. In contrast, shear-induced platelet aggregation, measured in the cone-and-plate viscometer, was paradoxically increased in type IIB patients. Treatment with l-desamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin (DDAVP) tended to normalize the filter test in patients with type I-platelet normal and type I-platelet low vWD, but infusion of a factor VUI/von Willebrand factor (vWF) concentrate lacking the largest vWF multimers was without effect in type 3 patients. Experiments with specific monoclonal antibodies demonstrated that the A1 and A3 domains of vWF, as well as the glycoproteins Ibα and Ilb-IIIa on platelets, are required for platelet retention in the filter. Thus, the test may reflect vWF function with regard to both platelet adhesion and aggregation under high shear stress, and provide relevant information on mechanisms involved in primary hemostasis.

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