scholarly journals COVID-19: Predictive Mathematical Models for the Number of Deaths in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, and USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios S. Fokas ◽  
Nikolaos Dikaios ◽  
George A. Kastis
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Maximum Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractWe have recently introduced two novel mathematical models for characterizing the dynamics of the cumulative number of individuals in a given country reported to be infected with COVID-19. Here we show that these models can also be used for determining the time-evolution of the associated number of deaths. In particular, using data up to around the time that the rate of deaths reaches a maximum, these models provide estimates for the time that a plateau will be reached signifying that the epidemic is approaching its end, as well as for the cumulative number of deaths at that time. The plateau is defined to occur when the rate of deaths is 5% of the maximum rate. Results are presented for South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, and USA. The number of COVID-19 deaths in other counties can be analyzed similarly.

Mathematical Models for Devising the Optimal SARS-CoV-2 Eradication in China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuo Jiang ◽  
Qiuyue Li ◽  
Chaoqun Li ◽  
Xiaomeng He ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Mathematical Models

DELFTMDD: A tool for integration of independent models in a decision support system

1999 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-201
Author(s):  
P. J. A. Gijsbers
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Data Management ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
User Interaction ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Data Dictionary ◽  
Simulation And Optimization ◽  
Data Editor ◽  
Generic Data Model ◽  
Using Data

The need for integrated analysis poses a request for integration of computer models, paying extra attention to interfaces, data management and user interaction. Sector wide standardization using data dictionaries and data exchange formats can be a great help in streamlining data exchange. However, this type of standardization can have some drawbacks for a generic framework for model integration. Another concept, called Model Data Dictionary (MDD), has been developed as an alternative for proper data management. The concept is a variant on the federated database concept, a concept where local databases maintain their autonomy, while an interconnection database provides a link for sharing data. The MDD is based on a highly generic data model for geographic referenced objects, which if needed facilitates mapping of the sector wide data dictionary. External interfaces provide, in combination with a data format mapping component, a link to SQL-based data sources and model specific databases. A generic Object Data Editor (ODE), linked to the MDD, has been proposed for provision of a common data editing facility for mathematical models. A test version of the combined MDD/ODE-concept has shown the applicability for integration of all kinds of geographic object oriented mathematical models (both simulation and optimization).

Measurement invariance of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale in parents of individuals with disabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Eun-Young Park ◽  
Joungmin Kim
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Measurement Invariance ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Depression Scale ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Fit Indices ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Invariance Model

We aimed to verify the factor model and measurement invariance of the abbreviated Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale by conducting a confirmatory factor analysis using data from 761 parents of individuals with intellectual disabilities who completed the scale as part of the 2011 Survey on the Actual Conditions of Individuals with Developmental Disabilities, South Korea, and 7,301 participants from the general population who completed the scale as part of the 2011 Welfare Panel Study and Survey by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, South Korea. We used fit indices to assess data reliability and Amos 22.0 for data analysis. According to the results, the 4-factor model had an appropriate fit to the data and the regression coefficients were significant. However, the chi-square difference test result was nonsignificant; therefore, the metric invariance model was the most appropriate measurement invariance model for the data. Implications of the findings are discussed.

scholarly journals Modelling spreading of an infection using time series by a novel family of models; fitting the time series of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Jamshidi ◽  
Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran ◽  
Mansour Rezaei
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Family ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractIntroductionTime series models are one of the frequently used methods to describe the pattern of spreading an epidemic.MethodsWe presented a new family of time series models able to represent the cumulative number of individuals that contracted an infectious disease from the start to the end of the first wave of spreading. This family is flexible enough to model the propagation of almost all infectious diseases. After a general discussion on competent time series to model the outbreak of a communicable disease, we introduced the new family through one of its examples.ResultsWe estimated the parameters of two samples of the novel family to model the spreading of COVID-19 in China.DiscussionOur model does not work well when the decreasing trend of the rate of growth is absent because it is the main presumption of the model. In addition, since the information on the initial days is of the utmost importance for this model, one of the challenges about this model is modifying it to get qualified to model datasets that lack the information on the first days.

scholarly journals Inferring Numbers of Wild Poliovirus Excretors Using Quantitative Environmental Surveillance

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 870
Author(s):  
Yuri Perepliotchikov ◽  
Tomer Ziv-Baran ◽  
Musa Hindiyeh ◽  
Yossi Manor ◽  
Danit Sofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oral Polio Vaccine ◽  
Turnaround Time ◽  
Quantitative Detection ◽  
Environmental Surveillance ◽  
Wild Poliovirus ◽  
Polio Vaccine ◽  
Kinetic Information ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Number Of Individuals

Response to and monitoring of viral outbreaks can be efficiently focused when rapid, quantitative, kinetic information provides the location and the number of infected individuals. Environmental surveillance traditionally provides information on location of populations with contagious, infected individuals since infectious poliovirus is excreted whether infections are asymptomatic or symptomatic. Here, we describe development of rapid (1 week turnaround time, TAT), quantitative RT-PCR of poliovirus RNA extracted directly from concentrated environmental surveillance samples to infer the number of infected individuals excreting poliovirus. The quantitation method was validated using data from vaccination with bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV). The method was then applied to infer the weekly number of excreters in a large, sustained, asymptomatic outbreak of wild type 1 poliovirus in Israel (2013) in a population where >90% of the individuals received three doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Evidence-based intervention strategies were based on the short TAT for direct quantitative detection. Furthermore, a TAT shorter than the duration of poliovirus excretion allowed resampling of infected individuals. Finally, the method documented absence of infections after successful intervention of the asymptomatic outbreak. The methodologies described here can be applied to outbreaks of other excreted viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), where there are (1) significant numbers of asymptomatic infections; (2) long incubation times during which infectious virus is excreted; and (3) limited resources, facilities, and manpower that restrict the number of individuals who can be tested and re-tested.

scholarly journals Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. Fokas ◽  
J. Cuevas-Maraver ◽  
P. G. Kevrekidis
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Algorithm ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Older Population ◽  
Mathematical Result ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractGuided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.

scholarly journals Corruption and Government Intervention on Bank Risk-Taking: Cases of Asian Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 228-237
Author(s):  
Rizky Maulana Nurhidayat ◽  
Rofikoh Rokhim
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
The Other ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to addresses the impact of corruption, anti-corruption commission, and government intervention on bank’s risk-taking using banks in Asian Countries such as  Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and South of Korea during the period 1995-2016. This paper uses corruption variable, bank-specific variables, macroeconomic variables, dummy variables and interaction variable to estimate bank’s risk-taking variable. Using data from 76 banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea over 21 years, this research finds consistent evidence that higher level of corruption and government intervention in crisis-situation will increase the risk-taking behaviour of banks. In the other hand, bank risk-taking behaviour minimized by the existence of anti-corruption commission. In addition, this paper also finds that government intervention amplifies corruption’s effect on bank’s risk-taking behaviour because of strong signs of moral hazard and weaknesses in the governance and supervision.

Market legitimation in countercultural market change

2021 ◽  
pp. 147059312110560
Author(s):  
Hwanho Choi ◽  
Bernard Burnes
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Institutional Change ◽  
Institutional Logics ◽  
Institutional Work ◽  
Market Change ◽  
Market Experience ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Indie Music ◽  
Depth Interviews ◽  
Market Changes

Drawing on concepts of institutional work, legitimacy, and institutional logics, we investigate why countercultural markets experience institutional change and the actions institutional work market actors perform to inform institutional logics and ensure the legitimacy of countercultural markets. Although previous research suggests market changes and disruption, little attention has been paid to markets that originate from different institutional backgrounds, changes in the market experience in relation to its legitimization, and institutional work to attain legitimacy. The case of indie music in South Korea illustrates the evolution of a cultural market from the introduction of its ethos, the crisis caused by legitimacy pressures, and the transformation of the market. Using data gathered through in-depth interviews with indie labels and music consumers in South Korea, and archival sources, our research illuminates the source of market struggle and theorizes approaches that market actors perform to overcome the struggle.

Larval fish diversity on the Scotian Shelf

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 1747-1760 ◽  
Author(s):  
N L Shackell ◽  
K T Frank
Keyword(s):  
Larval Fish ◽  
Diversity Indices ◽  
Fish Diversity ◽  
Calanoid Copepods ◽  
Scotian Shelf ◽  
Genus Richness ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
The Relationship

We examined larval fish diversity on the Scotian Shelf using data, representing 91 genera, collected during the Scotian Shelf Ichthyoplankton Program from 1978 to 1982. Two diversity indices (genus richness (GR) and Shannon's entropy (H)) were relatively lower from December to February-March and relatively higher and stable from April to September-October. Taxon composition changed seasonally. Total median log abundance (log10(number of individuals + 1)·1000 m-3) was low from December to February, increased in March, was stable from April to June, and declined from July to October. Our results suggest that the abundance trends of most taxa were not coincident with either a spring or fall bloom of calanoid copepods. Log GR was significantly positively related to H (r = 0.62, p < 0.001, n = 1853). A negative exponential best described the relationship between log GR and log abundance (R2 = 0.77; log GR = 1.37(1 – e-(1.13)(log abundance)), p < 0.001, n = 2357). Shannon's H was not related to log abundance in winter or in summer-fall and was negatively correlated in spring-summer (r = -0.12, p = 0.003, n = 593). Thus, diversity increases with abundance but the composition is dominated by relatively fewer genera at higher levels of abundance. Western - Sable Island banks had higher levels of GR and abundance in all seasons. Additional banks were diverse and productive during warmer months.

scholarly journals Too Much of a Good Thing: Social Capital and Academic Stress in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan A. Jarvis ◽  
Allison W. Corbett ◽  
Jared D. Thorpe ◽  
Mikaela J. Dufur
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Academic Success ◽  
South Korea ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Academic Stress ◽  
Good Thing ◽  
Academic Environments ◽  
Deviant Behaviors ◽  
Using Data ◽  
School Social Capital

In intense academic environments such as in South Korea, students experience extreme levels of academic stress. This stress peaks as students prepare for the college entrance exam in the final year of high school. Stress is associated with a host of negative outcomes, and academic stress is the leading cause of suicidal ideation among youth in South Korea. Research suggests that in high-stress contexts such as this, social capital can improve academic success and mental health, while reducing risky or deviant behaviors. However, this research has predominantly focused on Western contexts. Because of the unique intensity of educational pursuits and intense investment in education by parents, South Korea provides a compelling case for research on the effects of family and school social capital on youth academic stress. Using data from the Korea Youth Panel Survey (N = 2753), we find that particular components of family and school social capital can both reduce and exacerbate academic stress. While measures of closeness and connection to parents reduced academic stress, school social capital had a limited impact on academic stress. Furthermore, there may be a limit to the effectiveness of social capital to help with academic stress before it becomes too much of a good thing.

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