Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios

AbstractAmbitious afforestation proposals in the last decade target potential flood mitigation and carbon storage benefits but without a systematic, large-scale (>1000 km2) quantitative evaluation of their impacts on streamflow. Here, we assess the impact of afforestation on streamflow across twelve diverse catchments (c.500-10,000 km2) using a high-resolution land-surface model with a large ensemble of afforestation scenarios. Afforestation consistently decreases median and low streamflow. Median modelled flow is reduced by 2.8% ± 1.0 (1 s.d.), or 10 mm yr−1 ± 2.1 (1 s.d.), for a ten-percentage point increase in catchment broadleaf woodland. We find no nationally-consistent reduction of extreme floods. In larger catchments, planting extent is a stronger control on streamflow than location. Our results suggest that despite its potential environmental and societal benefits, widespread afforestation may inadvertently reduce water availability, particularly in drier areas, whilst only providing a modest reduction in extreme flood flows.

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Continuous high resolution mid-latitude belt simulations for July–August 2013 with WRF

10.5194/gmd-2016-195 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Schwitalla ◽

Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽

Volker Wulfmeyer ◽

Kirsten Warrach-Sagi

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Surface Model ◽

Latitude Belt ◽

Noah Land Surface Model ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of a convection permitting (CP) northern hemisphere latitude-belt simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was investigated during the July and August 2013. For this application, the WRF model together with the NOAH land-surface model (LSM) was applied at two different horizontal resolutions, 0.03° (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). The set-up as a latitude-belt domain avoids disturbances that originate from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows to study the impact of model resolution and physical parameterizations on the results. Both simulations were forced by ECMWF operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface. The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large scale features. To compare the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used. Compared to the operational high-resolution ECMWF analysis, both simulations are able to capture the large scale circulation pattern though the strength of the Pacific high is considerably overestimated in the LOWRES simulation. Major differences between ECMWF and WRF occur during July 2013 when the lower resolution simulation shows a significant negative bias over the North Atlantic which is not observed in the CP simulation. The analysis indicates deficiencies in the applied combinations of cloud microphysics and convection parametrization on the coarser grid scale in subpolar regions. The overall representation of the 500 hPa geopotential height surface is also improved by the CP simulation compared to the LOWRES simulation apart across Newfoundland where the geopotential height is higher than in the LOWRES simulation due to a northward shift of the location of the Atlantic high pressure system. Both simulations show higher wind speeds in the boundary layer by about 1.5 m s−1 compared to the the ECMWF analysis. Due to the higher surface evaporation, this results in a moist bias of 0.5 g kg−1 at 925 hPa in the planetary boundary layer compared to the ECMWF analysis. Major differences between ECMWF and WRF occur in the simulation of the 2-m temperatures over the Asian desert and steppe regions. They are significantly higher in WRF by about 5 K both during day- and night-time presumably as a result of different soil hydraulic parameters used in the NOAH land surface model for steppe regions. The precipitation of the HIRES simulation shows a better spatial agreement with CMORPH especially over mountainous terrain. The overall bias reduces from 80 mm at the coarser resolution to 50 mm in the HIRES simulation and the root mean square error is reduced by about 35 % when compared to the CMORPH precipitation analysis. The precipitation distribution agrees much better with the CMORPH data than the LOWRES simulation which tends to overestimate precipitation, mainly caused by the convection parametrization. Especially over Europe the CP resolution reduces the precipitation bias by about 30 % to 20 mm as a result of a better terrain representation and due to the avoidance of the convection parameterization.

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Urbanisation of weather data lead for more sustainable building design: urban land surface model used to generate Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) datasets

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15069 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ting Sun ◽

Yihao Tang ◽

Jie Xiong ◽

Hamidreza Omidvar ◽

Sue Grimmond

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Building Design ◽

Building Energy ◽

Urban Land ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Weather Data ◽

Surface Model ◽

The Impact

Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) datasets are widely used in building energy design simulations to assess needs (cooling/heat). Currently, TMY data used are representative of the past climate (from observations) of the region and generally do not account for urban climate or building-city interactions. Here we use an urban land surface model, SUEWS (Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme) driven by ERA5 reanalysis data to bridge this gap.Using 0.25 &#176; large-scale ERA5 reanalysis data (1979&#8211;2018) with SUEWS we generate an urbanised TMY (uTMY) dataset for Changsha, a city with more than 4.4 million residents in the hot-summer-cold-winter region of China, to demonstrate the proposed workflow. The SUEWS simulation are evaluated at the Leifeng site (WMO code 57687) for 2016.Through comparison of DOE EnergyPlus simulations, we also assess the impact on design building energy consumption using uTMY and cTMY (conventional TMY) data. The building design energy needs evaluation is for a common Chinese apartment building. This should allow for more spatially explicit building design, and hence more sustainable.

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Modeling the impacts of diffuse light fraction on photosynthesis in ORCHIDEE (v5453) land surface model

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 5401-5423

Author(s):

Yuan Zhang ◽

Ana Bastos ◽

Fabienne Maignan ◽

Daniel Goll ◽

Olivier Boucher ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Gross Primary Production ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Historical Period ◽

Surface Model ◽

Co2 Uptake ◽

Diffuse Light ◽

Positive Effects ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Aerosol- and cloud-induced changes in diffuse light have important impacts on the global land carbon cycle, as they alter light distribution and photosynthesis in vegetation canopies. However, this effect remains poorly represented or evaluated in current land surface models. Here, we add a light partitioning module and a new canopy light transmission module to the ORCHIDEE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems) land surface model (trunk version, v5453) and use the revised model, ORCHIDEE_DF, to estimate the fraction of diffuse light and its effect on gross primary production (GPP) in a multilayer canopy. We evaluate the new parameterizations using flux observations from 159 eddy covariance sites over the globe. Our results show that, compared with the original model, ORCHIDEE_DF improves the GPP simulation under sunny conditions and captures the observed higher photosynthesis under cloudier conditions in most plant functional types (PFTs). Our results also indicate that the larger GPP under cloudy conditions compared with sunny conditions is mainly driven by increased diffuse light in the morning and in the afternoon as well as by a decreased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and decreased air temperature at midday. The observations show that the strongest positive effects of diffuse light on photosynthesis are found in the range from 5 to 20 ∘C and at a VPD < 1 kPa. This effect is found to decrease when the VPD becomes too large or the temperature falls outside of the abovementioned range, which is likely due to the increasing stomatal resistance to leaf CO2 uptake. ORCHIDEE_DF underestimates the diffuse light effect at low temperature in all PFTs and overestimates this effect at high temperature and at a high VPD in grasslands and croplands. The new model has the potential to better investigate the impact of large-scale aerosol changes and long-term changes in cloudiness on the terrestrial carbon budget, both in the historical period and in the context of future air quality policies and/or climate engineering.

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Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model

10.5194/hess-2019-305 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Salma Tafasca ◽

Agnès Ducharne ◽

Christian Valentin

Keyword(s):

Soil Water ◽

Soil Texture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Global Scale ◽

Added Value ◽

Surface Model ◽

Total Runoff ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Soil physical properties play an important role for estimating soil water and energy fluxes. Many hydrological and land surface models (LSMs) use soil texture maps to infer these properties. Here, we investigate the impact of soil texture on soil water fluxes and storage at global scale using the ORCHIDEE LSM, forced by several complex or globally-uniform soil texture maps. The model shows a realistic sensitivity of runoff processes and soil moisture to soil texture, and reveals that medium textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. The three tested complex soil texture maps being rather similar by construction, especially when upscaled at the 0.5° resolution used here, they result in similar water budgets at all scales, compared to the uncertainties of observation-based products and meteorological forcing datasets. A useful outcome is that the choice of the input soil texture map is not crucial for large-scale modelling. The added-value of more detailed soil information (horizontal and vertical resolution, soil composition) deserves further studies.

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Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 24 (7) ◽

pp. 3753-3774

Author(s):

Salma Tafasca ◽

Agnès Ducharne ◽

Christian Valentin

Keyword(s):

Soil Water ◽

Soil Texture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Added Value ◽

Surface Model ◽

Total Runoff ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Soil physical properties play an important role in estimating soil water and energy fluxes. Many hydrological and land surface models (LSMs) use soil texture maps to infer these properties. Here, we investigate the impact of soil texture on soil water fluxes and storage at different scales using the ORCHIDEE (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEms) LSM, forced by several complex or globally uniform soil texture maps. At the point scale, the model shows a realistic sensitivity of runoff processes and soil moisture to soil texture and reveals that loamy textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. The three tested complex soil texture maps result in similar water budgets at all scales, compared to the uncertainties of observation-based products and meteorological forcing datasets, although important differences can be found at the regional scale, particularly in areas where the different maps disagree on the prevalence of clay soils. The three tested soil texture maps are also found to be similar by construction, with a shared prevalence of loamy textures, and have a spatial overlap over 40 % between each pair of maps, which explains the overall weak impact of soil texture map change. A useful outcome is that the choice of the input soil texture map is not crucial for large-scale modelling, but the added value of more detailed soil information (horizontal and vertical resolution, soil composition) deserves further studies.

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Continuous high-resolution midlatitude-belt simulations for July–August 2013 with WRF

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-10-2031-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 2031-2055 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Thomas Schwitalla ◽

Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽

Volker Wulfmeyer ◽

Kirsten Warrach-Sagi

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Temperature Fields ◽

Surface Model ◽

Limited Area ◽

Data Set ◽

Latitude Belt ◽

Simulated Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Increasing computational resources and the demands of impact modelers, stake holders, and society envision seasonal and climate simulations with the convection-permitting resolution. So far such a resolution is only achieved with a limited-area model whose results are impacted by zonal and meridional boundaries. Here, we present the setup of a latitude-belt domain that reduces disturbances originating from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows for studying the impact of model resolution and physical parameterization. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land–surface model was operated during July and August 2013 at two different horizontal resolutions, namely 0.03 (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). Both simulations were forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries, and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface.The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large-scale features. To analyze the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used as references.Analyzing pressure, geopotential height, wind, and temperature fields as well as precipitation revealed (1) a benefit from the higher resolution concerning the reduction of monthly biases, root mean square error, and an improved Pearson skill score, and (2) deficiencies in the physical parameterizations leading to notable biases in distinct regions like the polar Atlantic for the LOWRES simulation, the North Pacific, and Inner Mongolia for both resolutions.In summary, the application of a latitude belt on a convection-permitting resolution shows promising results that are beneficial for future seasonal forecasting.

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Development and application of the WRFPLUS-Chem online chemistry adjoint and WRFDA-Chem assimilation system

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-8-1857-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 1857-1876 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

J. J. Guerrette ◽

D. K. Henze

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Vertical Mixing ◽

Model Performance ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Sensitivity Study ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Surface Model ◽

Time Period ◽

Develop Land ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Here we present the online meteorology and chemistry adjoint and tangent linear model, WRFPLUS-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting plus chemistry), which incorporates modules to treat boundary layer mixing, emission, aging, dry deposition, and advection of black carbon aerosol. We also develop land surface and surface layer adjoints to account for coupling between radiation and vertical mixing. Model performance is verified against finite difference derivative approximations. A second-order checkpointing scheme is created to reduce computational costs and enable simulations longer than 6 h. The adjoint is coupled to WRFDA-Chem, in order to conduct a sensitivity study of anthropogenic and biomass burning sources throughout California during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) field campaign. A cost-function weighting scheme was devised to reduce the impact of statistically insignificant residual errors in future inverse modeling studies. Results of the sensitivity study show that, for this domain and time period, anthropogenic emissions are overpredicted, while wildfire emission error signs vary spatially. We consider the diurnal variation in emission sensitivities to determine at what time sources should be scaled up or down. Also, adjoint sensitivities for two choices of land surface model (LSM) indicate that emission inversion results would be sensitive to forward model configuration. The tools described here are the first step in conducting four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, which will potentially provide new constraints on aerosol precursor emissions and their distributions. Such analyses will be invaluable to assessments of particulate matter health and climate impacts.

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Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-8-2555-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 2555-2608 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

E. H. Sutanudjaja ◽

L. P. H. van Beek ◽

S. M. de Jong ◽

F. C. van Geer ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Groundwater Modeling ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Water Levels ◽

Surface Model ◽

Groundwater Model ◽

Model Output ◽

Global Datasets

Abstract. Large-scale groundwater models involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries are still rare due to a lack of hydrogeological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global datasets that are readily available. As the test-bed, we use the combined Rhine-Meuse basin that contains groundwater head data used to verify the model output. We start by building a distributed land surface model (30 arc-second resolution) to estimate groundwater recharge and river discharge. Subsequently, a MODFLOW transient groundwater model is built and forced by the recharge and surface water levels calculated by the land surface model. Although the method that we used to couple the land surface and MODFLOW groundwater model is considered as an offline-coupling procedure (i.e. the simulations of both models were performed separately), results are promising. The simulated river discharges compare well to the observations. Moreover, based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run several groundwater model scenarios with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observe that the model can reproduce the observed groundwater head time series reasonably well. However, we note that there are still some limitations in the current approach, specifically because the current offline-coupling technique simplifies dynamic feedbacks between surface water levels and groundwater heads, and between soil moisture states and groundwater heads. Also the current sensitivity analysis ignores the uncertainty of the land surface model output. Despite these limitations, we argue that the results of the current model show a promise for large-scale groundwater modeling practices, including for data-poor environments and at the global scale.

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SMOS Neural Network Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in a Land Surface Model and Atmospheric Impact

10.20944/preprints201904.0216.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez ◽

Patricia de Rosnay ◽

Clement Albergel ◽

Philippe Richaume ◽

Filipe Aires ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Land Surface ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Surface Model ◽

Northern Asia ◽

The Impact

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

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